15 MLB Games, 45 Model Predictions, and Two Bets

Can Oakland Continue its Hot Streak?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NFL News

  • MLB Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • What Else Is Cooking?

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 6-8

Over/Under Predictions: 9-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-6

3-star Predictions: 0-0-1

NFL🏈

Former 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press)

⭐️ Trey Lance goes from the Bay to Dallas. Roughly two and a half years after being drafted by the San Francisco 49ers, Trey Lance's time with the team has come to an end. The 49ers have traded Lance to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick, a decision that followed a series of events, including Lance losing the backup quarterback role. Despite the initial promise, Lance's lack of playing time due to injuries led to the trade, and the Cowboys now have an additional quarterback option alongside Dak Prescott.

👍 Bryce Young improves in MOST aspects in final preseason tilt. Following the preseason finale against the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young expressed readiness for the September 10 opener against Atlanta in almost all aspects except one – sliding. Young's unconventional slide during a scramble drew teasing from teammates, prompting him to schedule "slide lessons." Despite this, Young's overall performance improved, completing 7-of-12 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, leading to praise form head coach Frank Reich.

🙏 Malik Willis garnering praise from Titans coaching staff. In the Tennessee Titans' last preseason match, coach Mike Vrabel had a chance to assess second-year quarterback Malik Willis. With Ryan Tannehill briefly playing and rookie Will Levis dealing with an injury, Willis led the Titans to a 23-7 victory against the New England Patriots. Despite throwing two interceptions, Vrabel commended Willis for his competitive spirit and praised his ability to rebound after errors, indicating he could serve as a dependable backup to Tannehill in the regular season.

MLB⚾️

Oakland Athletics second baseman Zack Gelof (NBC Universal, Inc.)

Today’s Model Predictions

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. You can see our model’s predictions for every matchup below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
Model Predicts- Athletics ML, OVER 9, Athletics +1.5

The Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox will continue their four-game series on Saturday evening in the Windy City.

Despite its inferior record, Oakland has had the upper hand in this series through two games, going 2-0 and posting a +11 run differential in that time. The A’s are now winners of five of their last ten, while Chicago has won just three of its last ten games.

A matchup featuring two bottom of the barrel teams isn’t always the most enticing to bet, but our model sees some value on Oakland and expects another win. Let’s dive into why that is.

Oakland Athletics

What in the world is going on with the Oakland Athletics?

The worst team in baseball has suddenly caught fire, albeit against two other bad teams in the Royals and White Sox. Nonetheless, the Athletics have picked up wins in four of their last five games thanks to increased performance at the plate, a stretch in which Oakland has posted a 130 wRC+, per FanGraphs.

However, Oakland’s BABIP and on base % across the last five contests sits at just .278 and .328, respectively, ranking the A’s 22nd and 13th in the MLB. That may leave many asking, how can this team be winning games despite not getting on base often?

Well, it’s because the A’s are crushing baseballs out of the park, recording 12 homers in the last five games. That is tied for the most in the majors, and seven of those dingers have come in the last two games against the White Sox.

JP Sears (2-10 record, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound today for Oakland. Sears was rocked in his last matchup against Baltimore, surrendering seven runs in four innings, but the left-hander has still proven to have decent stuff on the mound, as evidenced by ranking in the top 50% in Hard Hit rate, Average Exit Velocity, and his 6.2% walk rate.

Chicago White Sox

The month of August has been quite ugly for Chicago, with the White Sox posting a 7-15 record since the calendar flipped.

Things were already bad for this franchise, and now they have gotten even worse after firing two major executives earlier this week. The grass may not get any greener today either, especially with Touki Toussaint (1-6 record, 5.30 ERA) set to get the start.

Just like JP Sears, Toussaint was lit up the last time he took the mound, surrendering seven runs in only four innings. Outings like that have been quite common for the 27-year-old this month, with Toussaint posting an 8.95 ERA since August 1st.

Toussaint’s lack of control and his vulnerability to the long ball have been his biggest flaw. He has surrendered 18 walks and six homers in his last four outings, and according to Baseball Savant owns a 16.8% walk rate in 2023, ranking him in the bottom 1%.

Toussaint provides zero stability on the mound for a team that lacks much firepower at the plate outside of Luis Robert Jr. That will likely pose a problem today.

What’s the Play?

Usually we choose to stick with just one bet per matchup, but today we feel there is room to stretch it two with the Athletics ML and the over at nine runs.

Oakland has been excellent at the plate recently and has proven they can take any pitcher deep. Toussaint’s absurd walk rate will enable Oakland to get hitters on base early and often, and the power they have scattered throughout the lineup should bring those runners in.

Sears is vulnerable to the long ball too, allowing nine homers in the last 35 innings.

We could see a home run derby breakout today, which is a huge reason why we agree with our model on the over, and we think Sears can provide just enough juice on the mound to keep the A’s in front.

The Play: Athletics ML (+110), Over 9 (-110)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Los Angeles Dodgers- 79-48 overall this season, 36-27 as the away team, 8-2 in last ten games

  • Philadelphia Phillies- 70-58 overall this season, 37-25 as the home team

  • Chicago Cubs- 67-61 overall this season, 22-15 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Pittsburgh tonight)

  • Cleveland Guardians- Under is 71-55-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

  • Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 71-49-7 this season, 40-20-3 as the away team

  • Oakland Athletics- Over is 68-54-7 this season, 37-22-5 as the away team

  • Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 79-49 overall this season, 35-31 as a favorite

  • Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 82-48 overall this season, 40-17 as a road underdog

Injury Report

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

News Around the League

👀 Mariners tied for lead in AL West. The Seattle Mariners keep winning while the Texas Rangers keep losing, resulting in both teams sharing the top spot in the American League West standings. The Mariners have surged with an impressive record, winning nine of their last ten games and erasing a significant deficit in the division. Despite this, the Rangers hold the tiebreaker advantage due to their head-to-head matchups. Furthermore, the Mariners have created some distance between themselves and the defending World Series champions, the Houston Astros, who are now one game behind Seattle in the division and wild card race.

💪 Spencer Strider picks up 15th win of season. Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves has become the first pitcher to achieve 15 wins in the MLB season, pitching seven impressive innings with only three hits allowed against the struggling San Francisco Giants. Strider’s performance enabled the Braves secureda 5-1 victory, extending their strong record with eight wins in their last ten games. Strider now sits at 15-4 on the season with a 3.46 ERA and 236 strikeouts.

👏 Mookie Betts returns to Boston for first time since 2019. Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers received a mix of cheers and boos from the Red Sox fans in his retunr to Fenway Park. The response was a reflection of Betts' six-year tenure with the Red Sox, during which he played a significant role in their 2018 World Series victory. Despite his departure in 2020, Betts has excelled with the Dodgers, contributing to their 7-4 victory over the Red Sox by scoring two runs and recording a walk. This performance adds to his impressive season statistics, including a .309 batting average, 34 home runs, 89 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and a 1.009 OPS.

What Else Is Cooking🍳

USC quarterback Caleb Williams (Getty Images)

🗞 More info surfaces about Bronny James’ cardiac arrest. Bronny James, a freshman guard at USC and the son of LeBron James, is anticipated to make a return to basketball after suffering cardiac arrest during a workout in July. The incident was attributed to a congenital heart defect, which was identified after evaluations at multiple medical centers. A congenital heart defect refers to structural abnormalities in the heart that are present from birth, and the family expressed confidence in Bronny's full recovery and his imminent return to the sport.

🏈 College football makes its return. Today marks the official start of the college football season, with 14 teams set to square off in their quest for a national championship. Two ranked team, Notre Dame (13) and USC (6) will begin their season’s today, with the Fighting Irish going head-to-head with Navy in Dublin, Ireland and USC hosting San Jose State. Five more games will be played throughout today, and you can check out the official schedule here.

⛳️ Morikawa continues dominance at TOUR Championship. Collin Morikawa continues his exceptional performance at East Lake Golf Club during the 2023 Tour Championship, following his record-setting 61 on Thursday with a 64 on Friday, resulting in a 36-hole score of 125, surpassing the previous 36-hole record set by Tiger Woods in 2007. Morikawa is tied for the lead with Viktor Hovland, who also shot a blazing 64 on Friday and shares the top spot at 16 under. Scottie Scheffler trails by two strokes, and a competitive field including Keegan Bradley, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy is within six shots of the lead with two rounds remaining.

Trivia Section🧠

Former Seattle Seahawks running back Shaun Alexander (Otto Greule Jr./Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Shaun Alexander was a star for the Seattle Seahawks, but the running back played for one additional team during his career after his tenure in Seattle. Can you name that team?

Question #2- The Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons got into an infamous scuffle in 2004, one that NBA fans would remember forever. What name was the brawl given?

Question #3- The Philadelphia Phillies made the World Series last season, the team’s first time since 2009. Who did Philadelphia play, and lose to, in the 2009 Fall Classic?

On This Day in History🗓

Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on August 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 26th…

1985- Baltimore Orioles legend Eddie Murray records nine RBIs in a 17-3 blowout victory over the Angels. Murray finished the game 4-for-5 at the plate, hitting three homers, one of which was a grand slam, and came up just a few feet short of his fourth with a warning track fly out in the seventh inning. Although the performance was legendary, it was nothing new for Murray, as it was the third time in his career that he hit three homers in the same game.

1989- NBA star James Harden is born in Los Angeles, California. Harden began his career with the Oklahoma City Thunder before being traded to the Houston Rockets, where he would go on to win one MVP and be an All-Star from 2013-2019. Harden is currently a member of the Philadelphia 76ers, but as we speak is doing everything in his power to change that.

1990- Bo Jackson his his fourth consecutive home run against the Seattle Mariners. How Jackson got there was a little unorthodox, as the first three homers came back on July 17th against the Yankees, but he was forced to leave the game with an injury following his third dinger. He wouldn’t return to the field until August 26th, going yard n his first at-bat and becoming the 19th player in MLB history to hit four consecutive home runs.

Trivia Answers

  1. Washington Commanders

  2. Malice at the Palace

  3. New York Yankees