In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-5

Over/Under Predictions: 9-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

💪 Kadarius Toney ready for Week 1. The Kansas City Chiefs are set to kick off the new football season by hosting the Detroit Lions in their regular season opener, and they'll have Kadarius Toney back in action after he recovered from a knee injury that kept him sidelined throughout the summer. Coach Andy Reid confirmed Toney's readiness, highlighting his improved mobility. Toney, acquired by the Chiefs last October, is expected to play a pivotal role in the team's offense in 2023, following the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in free agency.

💰 Cowboys’ Steele goes from undrafted to PAID. The Dallas Cowboys are securing their key players with significant contracts, with right tackle Terence Steele signing a five-year extension valued at $86.8 million, including $50 million in guaranteed money. This move follows other notable signings, including Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs and safety Malik Hooker, as well as a contract adjustment for All-Pro right guard Zack Martin. Steele, who originally joined the Cowboys as an undrafted free agent in 2020, has overcome injury setbacks and is set to start in the upcoming season opener against the New York Giants.

😬 Chris Jones still absent from Chiefs practice. The Kansas City Chiefs are facing uncertainty as star defensive lineman Chris Jones remains absent from the 53-man roster due to a contract holdout. Despite optimism from Chiefs' general manager Brett Veach, Jones's absence from Sunday's practice raises doubts about his Week 1 availability. The contract dispute centers around Jones seeking a new deal, with Kansas City offering a three-year, $74 million contract, while Jones aims for a closer figure to three years and $84.5 million.

There are 11 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for 10 of today’s matchups.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9, Phillies +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will continue their six-game road trip on Monday evening, with the next stop coming in sunny San Diego.

The first leg of Philadelphia’s road trip got off to a poor start, going 1-2 against the Brewers despite leading in all three games. On the other hand, San Diego enters today on a three-game win streak.

The Padres have finally found some momentum down the home stretch of the season, but our model still likes the Phillies to win today’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is the case.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies currently sit in the No.1 wild card position in the National League, holding a 5.5-game lead over the final wild card team, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

An offensive explosion in the month of August contributed to the distance between Philadelphia and the remaining NL teams, a month where just about everyone in the lineup found ways to score runs.

According to FanGraphs, the Phillies launched 59 home runs across 27 games last month, six more than any other team. That led to the Phillies posting a 141 wRC+ and .905 OPS, two metrics that further exemplify the power that Philly currently possesses at the plate.

Although some of the underlying metrics aren’t as pretty, that power has followed the Phillies into September, with the team hitting seven homers in their three-game series against Milwaukee. Despite an ugly 29.1% strikeout rate in the three contests, this is one of the hottest teams at the plate.

Taijuan Walker (14-5 record, 4.05 ERA) will get the start on the mound for Philly today. His 14 wins put him at the top of the majors, but his vulnerability to contact (40.0% Hard Hit rate, 21.1% Whiff rate) and 9.8% walk rate often lead to several baserunners.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres finally strung together some wins over the weekend, and it couldn’t have come against a better team as the Padres took three of four games against division rival San Francisco.

However, San Diego still sits 5.5 games away from a wild card spot with 34 games to play, making their chances for a playoff berth slim.

Despite having heavy hitters like Manny Machado and Juan Soto,this team has played terrible baseball, especially over the last month. For example, the Padres are just 12-19 since August 1st and just 4-6 in their last ten games, ranking 13th in wRC+, 22nd in BABIP, and 14th in OPS since the start of August. At its best, San Diego is one of the scariest lineups in the MLB, but they have failed to prove they can assert dominance for long stretches.

The pitching staff is the only bright spot for this team. The group, led by NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell, owns a 3.79 ERA this season, but that has risen to 4.17 since August 1st.

43-year-old Rich Hill (7-13 record, 5.26 ERA) will be in charge of bringing that number back to its original levels, but a tall task stands ahead of the left-hander. Hill has lost all his velocity, with his fastball coming in at just 88 mph, leading to loads of contact. Hill’s 5.66 xERA indicates that some regression is on the horizon as well.

What’s the Play?

The matchup on the mound doesn’t present either team with much of an advantage, however, we agree with our model that Philadelphia’s offense can propel it to a win this evening.

Rich Hill ranks in the bottom 21% of the majors in strikeout rate, barrel rate, whiff rate, and xBA, all of which is bad news while facing a Phillies team that owns a 132 wRC+ and .865 OPS against lefties since the start of August. His low velocity is simply too much for him to overcome, as evidenced by his 8.50 ERA in August.

Walker presents the Padres with the a solid matchup, but San Diego is far too inconsistent at the plate. As a result, we’ll take the Phillies as outright winners today.

The Play: Phillies ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 73-64 overall this season, 37-31 as the home team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 83-54 overall this season, 45-23 as the home team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Philadelphia Phillies- 75-61 overall this season, 3-1 against the Padres this season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 72-61-4 this season, 20-13 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Tampa Bay today)

• San Diego Padres- Under is 72-57-9 this season, 39-28-3 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 68-57-11 this season, 36-27-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 83-53 overall this season, 16-6 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🧹 Jasson Dominguez homers again, Yankees sweep Astros. Jasson Dominguez had an eventful weekend, making a remarkable impression in his debut with the Yankees. He hit a home run off Justin Verlander on Friday and later delivered a game-changing home run against the Astros on Sunday, helping the youthful Yankees sweep the series. Dominguez, along with other young talents, is bringing optimism for the future of the team as they focus on playing their best baseball and making a potential impact in the coming months.

📖 Ohtani makes history once again. Despite his season-ending injury as a pitcher, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels continues to make history with his exceptional performance at the plate and on the basepaths. Ohtani stole his 20th base of the season on Sunday, becoming only the eighth player in MLB history to record 40 home runs and 20 stolen bases in multiple seasons. Ohtani, widely regarded as the most dynamic player in baseball, is currently maintaining a batting average of .304, with 44 home runs and 95 RBI, resulting in an impressive OPS of 1.066.

🌎 USA falls to Lithuania at FIBA World Cup. Despite their strong preseason and early tournament performance, USA Basketball faced their first defeat of the summer in the FIBA World Cup against Lithuania. The Lithuanian team, fueled by hot shooting, secured a 110-104 victory, leaving the Americans with a 4-1 record in the group stage. Although USA Basketball has advanced to the knockout round and secured a spot in the 2024 Paris Olympics, their loss to Lithuania serves as a valuable lesson in the tournament's competitiveness, and they now prepare to face Italy in the next round.

🏹 Florida State crushes LSU to begin season. LSU coach Brian Kelly expressed deep disappointment and termed his team's 45-24 loss to Florida State a "total failure" following a second-half collapse that allowed the Seminoles to dominate the game. Despite holding a 17-14 halftime lead, the No. 5 Tigers gave up 31 unanswered points in the second half, struggling to contain Florida State's quarterback Jordan Travis and wide receiver Keon Coleman. The defeat marked LSU's largest loss as a ranked team in a season opener in the AP poll era, prompting Kelly to emphasize the need for the team to address this adversity and rally together for the challenges ahead.

🏎 Max Verstappen wins Italian Grand Prix. Max Verstappen secured a historic 10th consecutive victory at the Italian Grand Prix, a feat unmatched in Formula One history since the championship's inception in 1950. Verstappen's Red Bull dominance continued with an effortless win at Monza, where he took the lead on lap 15 and maintained his unassailable position throughout the race. Despite the predictability of his wins, Verstappen's impeccable execution and flair as an athlete deserve recognition, as he now holds the record for consecutive wins, surpassing Sebastian Vettel's previous mark of nine.

Today’s trivia will test your college sports knowledge, specifically football and basketball.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The three largest stadiums in the United States all belong to football teams in the Big 10 conference. Can you name all three schools, in order, that top the list?

Question #2- Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, UCLA, and North Carolina have the most wins in college basketball history. Which school ranks No.1?

Question #3- Villanova defeated North Carolina to claim the NCAA national title in 2016. Who was the Villanova player to hit the game-winning three-pointer as time expired?

Anyone know what has happened on September 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 4th…

1993- Penn State University plays its first football game as a member of the Big 10, defeating Minnesota 38-20. Nittany Lions quarterback John Sacca and wide receiver Bobby Engram were the stars of the show, connecting on four touchdowns in the game. Penn State would finish the 1993 season 10-2, with the two losses coming to Michigan and Ohio State.

1994- Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino throws five touchdown passes in a 39-35 win over the New England Patriots. The significance of the performance is that it was the 18th time Marino threw for at least four touchdowns in a game, a new NFL record. Marino would go on to throw 420 touchdowns in his career, the 7th most all-time.

2005- 20-year-old Kyle Busch becomes the youngest driver to win a NASCAR Cup Series race. Busch accomplished the feat at the Sony HD 500 at California Speedway, out-dueling Greg Biffle on his way to victory. The win was just the tip of the iceberg for Busch, who now has 63 Cup Series victories in his career.

1. Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Kris Jenkins