In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Thursday, August 17, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

❌ Joe Mixon found not guilty of aggravated menacing. Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has been acquitted of an aggravated menacing charge after a January 21st incident where he allegedly brandished a firearm and made threatening statements. The incident occurred a day before the Bengals' victory over the Buffalo Bills, preceding their AFC Championship game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cincinnati Bengals expressed their contentment with the resolution, citing Mixon's value to the team since 2017, while Mixon's agent, Peter Schaffer, highlighted the vindication of Mixon's character and faith in the legal process.

✍️ Ravens sign Ronald Darby to one-year deal. The Baltimore Ravens swiftly addressed their cornerback needs following a foot injury to Marlon Humphrey, signing experienced player Ronald Darby. Darby, a seasoned starter with 88 career games as a member of the Bills, Eagles, Commanders, and Broncos, will look to boost an injury-riddled secondary, one that is currently without Rock Ya-Sin in addition to Humphrey. The Ravens have been no stranger to injuries over the last several seasons, but Darby provides a nice insurance piece in the meantime.

🚔 Kansas City Chiefs super fan likely to spend time behind bars. A well-known Kansas City Chiefs enthusiast, referred to as "ChiefsAholic," has been indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly orchestrating a series of bank robberies across the Midwest and laundering the stolen funds through casinos. Xaviar Babudar, the individual behind the popular social media alias, was apprehended after bank records, casino transactions, and cell phone location data connected him to multiple unsolved robberies. The 28-year-old faces an array of charges, including money laundering, transporting stolen property, armed bank robbery, and bank theft, with allegations spanning from March to December 2022 and involving thefts exceeding $800,000, as well as gambling-related activities.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Model Predicts- Dodgers ML, OVER 8.5, Marlins +1.5

The Miami Marlins will begin a six-game West Coast road trip on Friday night, with the first stop being in Los Angeles, California.

Miami enters tonight’s matchup on the cusp of a playoff position, tied with the Cubs and Reds for the the final NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, Los Angeles comes into tonight with a 10.5-game lead in the NL West, essentially already securing a playoff-berth.

Los Angeles has dominated every opponent that stood in its way over the last two weeks, and our model likes the Dodgers to pick up another win tonight. Let’s dive into why that is the case.

Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantara (5-10 record, 4.09 ERA) went from being one of the most feared pitchers in baseball to one that opponents generally want to have on their schedule.

The 27-year-old has experienced immense regression since winning the NL Cy Young last season, with his ERA rising to 4.09 from 2.28. That has coincided with a 2.6% drop in strikeout rate and 0.6% rise in walk rate, further showing that Alcantara simply isn’t the same threat that he was last season.

Additionally, Alcantara’s xERA sits at 4.08, just 0.01 runs lower than his season ERA. The damage that has been done against him isn’t because of bad luck, but more so his own doing on the mound.

The right-hander is still doing a solid job at keeping balls off the barrel, but hard contact tends to still come in bunches, as evidenced by ranking in bottom 32% of the majors in Hard Hit rate. His xBA sits at .262 because of that, up from .215 a season ago.

Luckily for Miami, Alcanatara has shown that he could be getting back to his old ways. He has pitched at least eight innings in three of his last four starts, posting a 1.59 ERA in that time.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball at the moment, which will likely make slowing them down a difficult task for Alcanatara.

The Dodgers enter tonight’s matchup on an 11-game win streak, their longest of the 2023 season. L.A. is also an unbelievable 15-1 in the month of August, posting a +59 run differential in that 16-game span.

The biggest factor in L.A.’s success has been its 17.1% strikeout rate since August 1st, the lowest K rate in the MLB this month. That has enabled the Dodgers to get on base in bunches, leading to a .316 BABIP and 129 wRC+. The Dodgers have also posted a 9.6% walk rate, further exemplifying just how well this team is seeing the ball during its hot streak.

However, if there is one area of concern for tonight’s matchup, it will be on the mound with Tony Gonsolin (8-4 record, 4.24 ERA).

Gonsolin’s 4.24 ERA is already a slight concern, but his 5.28 xERA shows that further regression is on the horizon. The 29-year-old has struggled to strikeout opposing batters, with his strikeout rate falling 4.5% since last season, and his Hard Hit rate has risen 6.7% while his barrel rate is up 4.7%.

What’s the Play?

Both of tonight’s starting pitchers are vulnerable on the mound, with several underlying metrics showing that more damage is set to be done against Gonsolin. As a result, our model thinks the over is the bet with the most value in this matchup.

Alcantara has turned a corner, but going against this Dodgers team presents an issue. L.A. owns a 113 wRC+ and .316 BABIP against righties this month, showing that the Dodgers can create offense against Alcantara.

Miami isn’t the most threatening offense in the league, but Gonsolin’s pending regression and inconsistency on the mound makes them a solid bet for some runs tonight. Our model gives the over a 55.54% chance to hit in this matchup, a risk we are willing to take.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 62-58 overall this season, 33-29 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- 54-66 overall this season, 22-14 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Cleveland this afternoon).

• Seattle Mariners- 66-55 overall this season, 32-27 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 59-54-8 this season, 35-22-6 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 59-53-9 overall this season, 31-26-5 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 67-46-7 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 76-46 overall this season, 26-13 as a home underdog

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 74-47 overall this season, 12-5 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📆 Tim Anderson receives reduced suspension. Chicago White Sox star Tim Anderson's six-game suspension resulting from a brawl with Cleveland's José Ramírez was shortened to five games through a resolution with Major League Baseball. Anderson will begin his suspension on Friday as the White Sox commence a series in Colorado, while Ramírez had already served a two-game suspension. In an Instagram post, Anderson expressed remorse for his involvement in the altercation, taking responsibility for his actions and aiming to return to contribute to his team's success upon completing the suspension.

💥 Julio Rodriguez goes OFF against Kansas CIty. Julio Rodríguez, the Mariners' standout, showcased his exceptional skills in a crucial game against the Royals. With his team facing adversity and trailing against the underdog Royals, Rodríguez took charge, smashing a 438-foot, three-run homer in the fifth plate appearance, marking his fifth hit of the day and his 20th homer of the season. This remarkable performance not only secured a 6-4 victory but also earned Rodríguez a new career high and a unique achievement in franchise history as the first player to hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons.

🐅 Payton Thorne becomes starting quarterback at Auburn. Former Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has secured the position of starting quarterback for Auburn, as announced by coach Hugh Freeze. Thorne's leadership, efficient passing, and comprehensive grasp of the offense contributed to his selection over competitor Robby Ashford, who took over the starting role for the Tigers last season. Thorne is entering his fifth season of college football, and will likely give an Auburn offense that ranked 119th in passing last season a big boost.

⛳️ Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman in co-lead at BMW Championship. Rory McIlroy and Brian Harman share the lead at 5-under par after the opening round of the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club. Close behind, a cluster of six players, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, and Rickie Fowler, trail by just one stroke at 4-under. As the tournament progresses with 54 holes left, competitors aim to secure the $3.6 million first prize and strive to earn a spot in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings for eligibility in the upcoming Tour Championship.

🏀 NBA releases 2023-24 schedule. The eagerly awaited 2023-24 NBA schedule was unveiled, encompassing 1,230 games and brimming with compelling storylines and rivalries. Commencing on October 24, the season's opening night features the Los Angeles Lakers confronting the reigning champion Denver Nuggets, followed by a matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors. Notably, the schedule includes the anticipated debut of top pick Victor Wembanyama with the San Antonio Spurs on October 25, and details of the inaugural in-season tournament were disclosed, with group stage games commencing on November 3, culminating in the championship on December 9.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which NFL quarterback holds the record for the most touchdown passes in a single season, and how many touchdowns did he throw?

Question #2- During the 2012-2013 NBA season, LeBron James became the youngest player in NBA history to reach 20,000 career points. Who was the youngest player to achieve this milestone before LeBron James?

Question #3- During the 1994 MLB season, a pitcher struck out 20 batters in a single game, tying the record for the most strikeouts in a nine-inning game. Who was this pitcher, which team was he playing for, and who was the opposing team in that game?

Anyone know what has happened on August 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 18th…

1931- New York Yankees legend Lou Gehrig makes an appearance in his 1,000th consecutive game. However, Gehrig would be held hitless in the matchup, with Detroit Tigers pitchers Earl Whitehill and Tommy Bridges getting the better of the star. Gehrig would extend his consecutive games streak to 2,130, which remains the second-most in MLB history behind Cal Ripken (2,632).

1986- NFL quarterback Jim Kelly signs with the Buffalo Bills. Kelly was actually selected by Buffalo two years earlier in the 1984 NFL Draft, but refused to play for the team and instead suited up for the Houston Gamblers of the USFL. However, the USLF would fall apart after Kelly’s second season, paving the way for the quarterback to be a member of the Bills. Kelly would play for Buffalo until 1996, leading the team to four Super Bowl appearances, but losing all four contests.

2021- Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani becomes fastest player in franchise history to reach 40 home runs in a 3-1 win over the Detroit Tigers. Ohtani also had a fantastic day on the mound, pitching eight innings and surrendering just six hits while striking out eight batters. The win was the 61st of the Angels’ season and brought the team to .500, but L.A. would end the year 77-85 and miss the playoffs.

1. Peyton Manning (55)

2. Kobe Bryant

3. Kerry Wood (Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros)