A Late Night Battle in the Mile High City

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-1

Over/Under Predictions: 7-3-1

Spread Predictions: 5-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

Model Predicts- Broncos ML, UNDER 42, Broncos -6

The Cleveland Browns will hit the road for the second time in three weeks on Monday, taking their talents to Denver, Colorado to battle the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Cleveland enters this matchup fresh off a win over a divisional rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers, but sits in last place in the AFC North with a 3-8 record. Meanwhile, Denver enters this Monday night matchup in the midst of a two-game win streak, improving the Broncos’ record to 7-5 through 12 games.

Bo Nix and the Broncos find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot as we approach the home stretch of the 2024-25 season, and our model projects Denver’s playoff chances to improve tonight with a win at home. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cleveland Browns

• Enter tonight off win over Steelers last week

  • Won game 24-19. Out-scored Steelers 10-3 in first half, but were out-scored 16-14 in second half

  • Recorded 304 yards of offense- 219 passing, 85 rushing

• Team is 2-2 with Jameis Winston as starter, but offense is still mediocre

  • Rank 21st in EPA/play and 19th in success rate since Winston took over starting role

  • Averaging 5.2 yards/play in last three games- ranks in bottom-10 of NFL in that span

• Defense struggles overall, especially in red zone

  • Surrender 5.7 yards/play (25th in NFL). Allow touchdown on 62.50% of red zone drives (23rd in NFL)

Denver Broncos

• Enter today on two-game win streak

  • One win over Falcons, one win over Raiders

  • Own +42 point differential in that span

• Defense is elite and has remained strong during win streak

  • Rank second in opponent EPA/play and third in opponent success rate

  • Holding opponents to 297.5 yards/game and 12.5 points/game during win streak

• Offense can be inconsistent, but has been strong over last six games

  • Rank in top half of NFL in EPA/play and success rate since Week 7. Averaging 23.7 points/game in that time

What’s the Play?

Cleveland showed its resilience last week in a snowy win on Thursday Night Football, but we agree with our model that the Broncos will prevent the Browns from winning two consecutive games here.

Denver’s defense is by far the best part of the team, especially when it comes to keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Broncos are surrendering 16.8 points/game this season, and are surrendering a touchdown on just 39.39% of red zone drives this season, the best rate in the NFL. That rate has fallen even lower to 20.00% across the last three games, further highlighting Denver’s defensive abilities.

Conversely, Cleveland’s defense is allowing a touchdown on 75.00% of red zone drives over the last three weeks, and in that span is allowing those same opponents to convert on 42.50% of third downs (bottom-10 in NFL). That will enable Denver to sustain drives and be in position to score touchdowns often tonight.

Our model projects the Broncos to win tonight’s game by nearly eight points, providing plenty of room to back Denver on the spread.

The Play: Broncos -6 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Denver Broncos- 7-5 overall this season, 3-2 as the home team, and 2-0 in last two games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Browns- Under is 6-5 this season, 2-1 as a road underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Denver Broncos- 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-0 ATS as a home favorite

🤕 McCaffrey dealing with potential season-ending knee injury. The San Francisco 49ers faced another setback as star running back Christian McCaffrey left Sunday’s 35-10 loss to the Bills with a PCL injury, potentially ending his season. McCaffrey, who missed significant time earlier this year with Achilles and calf issues, had been impactful since his November return, but his latest injury highlights his ongoing struggles with durability. With several key players sidelined this season, including Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, and Trent Williams, the injury-plagued 49ers will lean on Jordan Mason to fill the void at running back.

🦅 Eagles slow down Lamar Jackson, pick up 10th win of season. The Philadelphia Eagles secured their eighth straight win with a 24-19 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, highlighted by Saquon Barkley’s 25-yard touchdown run and a strong defensive effort that limited Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's Justin Tucker had a rough game, missing two field goals and an extra point, as the Ravens squandered opportunities despite holding a 9-0 lead early. The Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts’ two second-quarter touchdowns and a late scoring surge, overcame injuries and penalties to maintain their NFC East lead at 10-2, while Baltimore dropped to 8-5, trailing Pittsburgh in the AFC North.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Penn State last made the Big 10 Championship in 2016. What team did the Nittany Lions beat to win the title?

Question #2- Two basketball players from UCLA were selected fourth and fifth overall in the 2008 NBA Draft. One of those players was Russell Westbrook, but who was the other?

Question #3- What Philadelphia Phillies pitcher was named World Series MVP in 2008?

Anyone know what has happened on December 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 2nd…

1984- Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino throws four touchdown passes in a 45-34 loss to the Los Angeles Raiders. The performance gave Marino 37 touchdown passes for the season, which set a new single-season record. Marino would go on to throw 48 touchdown passes in the 1984 season, a record that would stand until 2004.

1993- The Houston Rockets defeat the New York Knicks by a final score of 94-85. The victory was the 15th of the season for Houston, breaking the NBA record for consecutive wins to begin a season previously held by the 1948-49 Washington Capitols. The record would stand until the 2015-16 season, the year the Golden State Warriors opened up the season with 24 consecutive wins.

2006- The second ACC Championship is contested between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech too an early 3-0 lead in the first quarter, but would only score three points the rest of the way and fall short to Wake Forest by a score of 9-6. Wake Forest kicker Sam Swank, who scored every point for the Demon Deacons, was named MVP.

1. University of Wisconsin

2. Kevin Love

3. Cole Hamels