A Slow Christmas Eve For Sports

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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One college football game featuring an FBS opponent is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

South Florida Bulls @ San Jose State Spartans

Model Predicts- South Florida ML, UNDER 64.5, South Florida +3

The South Florida Bulls will take their talents from Tampa, Florida to Honolulu, Hawaii on Tuesday, taking on the San Jose Spartans in the Hawaii Bowl.

South Florida ended the regular season with a loss on the road at Rice, but remained bowl eligible after posting a 6-6 record for the season. On the other hand, San Jose State ended its regular season with a close win over a Northern California rival in Stanford University, giving the Spartans a 7-5 record for the season.

San Jose State is a field goal favorite in this matchup, but our model projects South Florida to win the Hawaii Bowl by a narrow margin. Let’s dive into why that is.

South Florida Bulls

• Ended regular season with 6-6 record

  • Posted 3-3 record at home, 3-3 record on road

  • Own +29 point differential- ranks sixth in American Athletic Conference

• Strength of offense during regular season was the run game

  • Ranked 29th in FBS in rushing yards/game with 190.58. Averaged 4.99 yards/carry

  • Ran ball more often to close season- Recorded rush play on 56.03% of plays in final three games, compared to 49.82% for season

• Defense struggled to keep opponents from scoring late in season

  • Surrendered 21 points or more in each of final five games. Allowed 27.6 points/game in that span

San Jose State Spartans

• Ended regular season with 7-5 record

  • Posted 5-2 record at home, 2-3 record on road

  • Own +13 point differential- ranks fourth in Mountain West Conference

• Dominant passing offense was key to regular season success

  • 325.3 passing yards/game ranked 5th in FBS this season

  • Attacked opponents deep- 27 pass plays of 30+ yards also ranked 5th in FBS

• However, passing game will be missing key piece

  • Wide receiver Nick Nash will miss today’s game. Has 1,382 receiving yards this season (1st in FBS)

What’s the Play?

Our model makes the only college football game of the day a coin flip, so there isn’t much value on backing either team on the money line. However, we do agree with our model to back South Florida on the spread as a slight underdog.

San Jose State relied heavily on the pass this season, running the ball on just 35.41% of plays. That is the lowest rate among 134 FBS teams, and poses a problem with star wide receiver Nick Nash sidelined. That will force the rest the Spartans’ pass catchers to produce against a Bulls defense that held opponents to a 30% success rate on passing downs and 59.1% completion percentage, which we aren’t confident will happen.

Additionally, San Jose State’s reliance on the pass puts South Florida’s front-seven on defense in a great spot to make some noise. That group posted a 13.6% havoc rate this season and as a team South Florida recorded 32 sacks (33rd in FBS) and 96 tackles for loss (11th in FBS), showing the Bulls’ ability to generate high-rates of pressure on opposing offenses.

In summary, we don’t expect San Jose State to have nearly as much success in the passing game today as it did in the regular season, which provides value on backing South Florida on the spread.

The Play: South Florida +3 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• South Florida- 6-6 overall this season, 3-3 as the road team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• South Florida- Under is 5-6-1 this season, 4-1-1 as an underdog

• San Jose State- Under is 6-5-1 this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• South Florida- 6-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-2 ATS on the road

🤕 Carson Beck undergoes season-ending elbow surgery. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck underwent successful surgery to repair a UCL injury in his right elbow, officially ending his season. Beck, who sustained the injury during the SEC title game, is expected to fully recover and resume throwing by spring 2025, with backup Gunner Stockton stepping in as Georgia's starter for the College Football Playoff. A standout player projected as a top 2025 NFL Draft pick, Beck had an impressive career with 52 touchdown passes, including an SEC-high 28 in 2024.

🥔 NIU takes down Fresno State to win Potato Bowl. Freshman receiver George Dimopoulos threw a 25-yard touchdown pass and a two-point conversion in double overtime, while Jordan Hansen sealed Northern Illinois’ 28-20 Idaho Potato Bowl win over Fresno State with a fourth-down sack. NIU quarterback Josh Holst, making his third start, passed for 182 yards and two touchdowns despite an early interception, stepping in for injured starter Ethan Hampton. Fresno State, missing 14 players including starting quarterback Mikey Keene, scored first in overtime but couldn’t stop NIU’s game-winning drive or capitalize on missed field goals in regulation.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

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To see all sportsbooks and offers available in your area, click HERE

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two NBA players have scored 60+ points in a playoff game. One of those players is Michael Jordan, but who is the other?

Question #2- What current NHL player ranks No.1 in NHL history in power play goals, scoring 316 in his career?

Question #3- Former NFL quarterback Jake Locker was selected with the No.8 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft out of what school?

Anyone know what has happened on December 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 24th…

1950- The National Football League Championship game is contested between the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams in Cleveland, Ohio. Cleveland won the game by a score of 30-28, largely in part to recording five interceptions in the game. Browns quarterback Otto Graham was the star of the show, recording 298 passing yards, 91 rushing yards, and four touchdowns.

1961- Former American basketball coach Jay Wright is born in Churchville, Pennsylvania. Wright was introduced to basketball during his time at Council Rock North High School, where he played for four years prior to earning a spot on Bucknell University’s basketball roster. He went on to coach at five different universities in his coaching career, most notably at Villanova University from 2001-22.

1990- The Montreal Expos trade Tim Raines to the Chicago White Sox. The trade of Raines came following a season in which he recorded nine home runs and 62 RBIs across 130 games, and Montreal received Ivan Calderon and Barry Jones in return. Raines went on to play five seasons for Chicago, and then joined the New York Yankees in 1996.

1. Elgin Baylor

2. Alex Ovechkin

3. University of Washington