In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 6-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 5-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

😬 Sam Darnold named 49ers backup over Trey Lance. The competition for the San Francisco 49ers' backup quarterback position has concluded, with Sam Darnold being selected as the second-string quarterback behind Brock Purdy, as stated by coach Kyle Shanahan. Trey Lance, the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, will still be explored for various roles, according to an ESPN source. Shanahan expressed hope that Lance will stay with the team despite this decision, emphasizing that Darnold's performance during recent games set him apart as the preferred choice.

✈️ Jets receiver Corey Davis taking time away from football. New York Jets wide receiver Corey Davis, who had been absent from team activities for the past 10 days, announced on Wednesday that he is "stepping away" from football. Davis, a prominent free agent signing in 2021, made the announcement through an Instagram statement, mentioning that he had been considering this decision for a while. Although not using the term "retirement," he didn't provide a reason for his departure. The Jets have placed Davis on the reserve/retired list, maintaining their rights to him for the remaining year of his contract.

☎️ Trade offers are coming in for Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's aspiration for a trade could be drawing closer as the Indianapolis Colts have given him until Tuesday to find a suitable trading partner. Two offers have been made by teams out of the six that expressed interest in Taylor, but it's uncertain whether any will meet the Colts' trade conditions, which reportedly involve a first-round draft pick or an equivalent package. The impending decision is significant as Tuesday (8/29) marks the NFL roster cut deadline and is also the date by which the Colts must determine Taylor's status, potentially ending a prolonged contract dispute that has cast a shadow over their preseason.

There are 10 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for seven of today’s matchups.

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Red Sox ML, Under 9, Red Sox +1.5

The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros will close out a four-game series on Thursday afternoon in the Astrodome.

Houston has had the upper hand in the series through three games, going 2-1 in that span of time. The Astros are now 72-56 on the season, while Boston is 67-60.

The Sox managed to steal an extra-innings victory last night, and our model gives Boston a slight edge once again today. Let’s dive into why that is and where our model sees value for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox currently sit four games back from the final Wild Card spot in the American League with 35 regular season games still to be played, meaning that every game is meaningful moving forward.

Boston know that it is crunch time, and it has started to translate to the team’s performance on the field. The Sox may be just 1-2 in the current series with Houston, but Boston is 9-5 overall dating back to August 9th in what has been an impressive stretch of baseball.

Per FanGraphs, Boston owns a solid 106 wRC+ in the last 14 games, the tenth-best mark in the MLB. Power hitting has been the name of the game in that stretch, with Boston’s 19 homers and .773 OPS ranking in the top-seven of the major leagues.

Additionally, the Red Sox have posted a 34.3% Hard Hit rate and 38.7% ground ball rate in that same 14 game stretch. This team is making solid contact and getting the ball in the air, a recipe that often leads to runs in bunches.

Brayan Bello (9-7 record, 3.70 ERA) will hope his offense can stat hot and build a lead for him on the mound this afternoon. Bello’s biggest strength is his control an ability to keep baseball’s on the ground, as seen from his 6.2% walk rate and 56.7% ground ball rate. He is vulnerable to surrendering hard contact, but a low Barrel rate (7.1%) and his aforementioned ground ball rate help keep baseballs in the park

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros entered this series against Boston with no much to cheer about after being swept by AL West rival Seattle in the days prior. However, the Astros have bounced back nicely since then, and now sits just one game back from first place in the AL West.

Houston owns a +7 run differential through three games, one that has resulted from the Astros’ 122 wRC+ and .353 BABIP. Numbers like that have been the norm for Houston this month, posting a 124 wRC+, .318 BABIP, and 31 home runs since August 1st.

There is no denying what this offense is capable of, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the team get even hotter as we approach the home stretch of the 2023 season. However, there are some questions on the mound today for Houston, with J.P. France (9-4 record, 2.75 ERA) set to get the start this afternoon.

France’s 2.75 ERA is tremendous, especially for a rookie. You have to go back all the way to July 5th to find a matchup in which he surrendered more than two earned runs in a game, but his 4.39 xERA and 4.15 FIP indicate that regression is on the horizon.

The 1.64 run variance between the two stats results from France’s inability to avoid contact, with is strikeout rate coming in at just 17.9%. He also owns a 43.4% ground ball rate, showing that he is struggling to keep balls on the ground.

What’s the Play?

Our model essentially makes this matchup a coin flip, but we think France’s pending regression makes this a solid matchup for Boston.

France’s inability to generate swings and misses puts him in a tough spot this afternoon. Boston has been crushing baseballs over the last two weeks, and the Red Sox will have plenty of opportunities to do so again today against a pitcher that ranks in the bottom 5% of the MLB in Chase rate and bottom 29% in Whiff rate.

Meanwhile, Bello’s ability to keep baseballs on the ground and limit contact on the barrel should keep the Astros in check. We feel the Red Sox money line is the best model prediction in today’s matchup.

The Play: Red Sox ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Red Sox- 67-60 overall this season, 6-4 in last ten games

• Cincinnati Reds- 67-61 overall this season, 30-25 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Yankees- Under is 64-58-4 this season, 35-31-2 as the home team

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 68-56-4 this season, 39-24-1 as the home team

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 66-54-7 this season, 35-22-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 81-47 overall this season, 39-16 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Shohei Ohtani has torn UCL. Los Angeles Angels' Shohei Ohtani's season takes an unexpected turn as General Manager Perry Minasian confirms a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, rendering him unable to pitch for the remainder of the season. Ohtani left a game against the Cincinnati Reds early after an MRI revealed the tear, though its severity is unknown. Despite this setback, Ohtani, who has excelled as a two-way player, plans to explore options including the possibility of Tommy John surgery, a procedure he previously underwent in 2018, impacting his participation in the upcoming free agency and potentially the entire 2024 season.

💥 Aaron Judge has career night, helps end Yankees’ losing streak. Aaron Judge wasn’t going to let New York's losing streak continue, hitting three homers and accumulating six RBIs in a 9-1 victory over the Washington Nationals, ending the Yankees' nine-game losing streak. This accomplishment came just after the Yankees' general manager, Brian Cashman, labeled the season as a "disaster." Judge's impressive feat included a grand slam and he became only the third player in MLB history to hit three homers in a game that ended his team's nine-game losing streak, joining Freddie Patek and Eddie Mathews.

🍁 Auston Matthews is staying in Toronto. Auston Matthews has secured a four-year contract extension worth $53 million with the Toronto Maple Leafs, starting when his current five-year deal ends in July. This deal, making him the highest-paid NHL player in terms of annual value at $13.25 million per season, solidifies his position as the team's top center. Matthews, recognized as a premier play-driving forward since his No. 1 overall selection in 2016, boasts achievements including being a two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner and the NHL's Most Valuable Player in the 2021-22 season.

⛳️ TOUR Championship set to begin later today. The PGA TOUR's 2022-23 season is almost at its end, with only the TOUR Championship left. The top 30 players on the FedEx Cup points list will compete at East Lake, with the event using a staggered leaderboard based on positions. Scottie Scheffler will start the event at 10-under, holding a two-stroke lead over Viktor Hovland. The format has brought intriguing results before, and McIlroy, who is three shots behind the lead, aims for his fourth FedEx Cup title with a chance to close the gap. Betting odds favor Scheffler (+140) and McIlroy (+325) among others in this finale.

👨‍⚖️ Reggie Bush files defamation suit against NCAA. Reggie Bush, former USC star running back, has initiated a defamation lawsuit against the NCAA based on a statement from an NCAA spokesperson in 2021 accusing Bush of being involved in a "pay-for-play arrangement." Bush, along with his legal team, asserted that the claim is false and lacks evidence to support it. The lawsuit comes as Bush seeks to reinstate his Heisman Trophy and collegiate records, which were forfeited due to a high-profile NCAA investigation that revealed impermissible benefits during his college years.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Paul Pierce played a majority of his career with the Boston Celtics, but also suited up for two additional Eastern Conference teams in his career. Can you name those teams?

Question #2- Name the NFL player that had this career path- San Francisco > Indianapolis > Miami > Buffalo > New York Jets

Question #3- College teammates Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews were selected No.1 and No.2 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. Which school did both players attend?

Anyone know what has happened on August 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 24th…

1989- Former Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies star Pete Rose is suspended from baseball for life due to gambling. The allegations against Rose began to surface in 1988, which stated that the star was betting on baseball games that he was a participant in, an obvious conflict of interest. Rose was granted the right to apply for reinstatement in 1990, but to this day that reinstatement has never taken place.

1992- The Cleveland Browns suffer their worst preseason loss in franchise history, falling to the Minnesota Vikings by a score of 56-3. Minnesota jumped out to an early 7-0 lead, but a 28-point outburst in the second quarter blew the game wide open. Cleveland failed to score until seven minutes were left in the fourth quarter, foreshadowing the sub-par season that lied ahead.

2006- Jerry Rice officially retire from the NFL as a member of the San Francisco 49ers. Rice played for the 49ers from 1985-2000 before later suiting up for the Raiders and Seahawks, a stretch in which he led the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns six different times. The legend ended his career with 22,895 receiving yards, 5,403 more yards than any other receiver in league history.

1. Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards

2. Frank Gore

3. LSU