In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7

Run Line Predictions: 8-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

👎 Jonathan Taylor fails to find trade partner. The Indianapolis Colts chose not to trade Jonathan Taylor on Tuesday as they did not receive what they considered a suitable offer for their All-Pro running back. With no trade occurring, Taylor will remain on the physically unable to perform list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season against the Jaguars, Texans, Ravens, and Rams. The Colts could potentially revisit trading Taylor before the NFL's October 31 trade deadline, and if no deal is reached, they might use the franchise tag on him for a potential trade in the next offseason.

🦬 Von Miller to start season on PUP list, Damar Hamlin makes Bills roster. Buffalo Bills pass-rusher Von Miller is set to sit out the initial four games of the 2023 season, as the team designated him for the physically unable to perform list on Tuesday. This means he will be absent for matchups against the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, and Miami Dolphins. However, Miller’s designation made room for safety Damar Hamlin's inclusion on the Bills' active roster, with the Hamlin having made a remarkable return after suffering cardiac arrest in January.

🔄 Broncos trade for kicker Wil Lutz. The Denver Broncos have acquired New Orleans Saints kicker Wil Lutz, as confirmed by coach Sean Payton. The Broncos traded a 2024 seventh-round pick to secure Lutz, after releasing Brandon McManus in May and seeing Elliott Fry and Brett Maher compete for the kicking position during training camp. Lutz, who spent five seasons as the Saints' kicker, expressed gratitude to New Orleans and excitement for joining the Broncos after an injury sidelined him in the 2021 season.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

Model Predicts- Yankees ML, OVER 7.5, Yankees -1.5

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will continue their four-game series on Wednesday evening at Comerica Park.

Perhaps the to surprise of many, the Yankees have taken the first two games of this series. However, New York is still just 4-12 in its last 16 games, a stretch that has essentially ended their season.

Detroit isn’t much better, entering today at 59-73 and losers of four straight.

Neither one of these squads has anything to play for today, but our model believes that the Yankees will win in a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is and see where our model thinks value lies.

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees needed everything to break their way down the stretch in order to have a shot at the postseason, but the exact opposite is what really happened.

As previously mentioned, New York is an abysmal 4-12 across its last 16 games, highlighted by a nine-game losing streak from August 12-22. A complete collapse at the plate shouldered a majority of the blame for the Yankees’s struggles, with New York being held to one run or less in five of those nine matchups and posting .176 team batting average and 59 wRC+, per FanGraphs.

The Yankees appear to have snapped out of the funk though, going 4-3 over their last seven and seeing their wRC+ rise to 103. Some metrics, such as New York’s 30.1% strikeout rate, in that time are still a sign of a struggling offense, but New York’s 17 homers in that same span shows that the power has officially returned to the lineup.

Gerrit Cole (11-4 record, 2.95 ERA) will hit the mound as today’s starter, hoping that the offense will continue its upward trend.

Cole has been all over the place in August, going back and forth between allowing two earned runs or fewer or surrendering at least four. As a result, his ERA this month comes in at 4.33, and the 0.74 run gap between his xERA (3.69) and season ERA (2.95) shows that more regression is near.

Detroit Tigers

Speaking of being all over the place, Joey Wentz (2-10 record, 6.62 ERA) will get the start this evening for Detroit.

Wentz has struggled all season long, and his two starts in August have been no different. Despite allowing zero run his last time out, Wentz owns a 9.00 ERA, 6.39 FIP, and 2.38 WHIP in August, a month in which he has pitcher just 8.0 innings.

The southpaw is struggling mightily to keep the ball off the barrel, perhaps the biggest reason his ERA is pushing 7.00 runs over an 84.1 inning timeframe. Per Baseball Savant, Wentz owns a 10.8% Barrel rate this season, up from 7.4% a season ago. That has often resulted in high rates of hard contact, pushing Wentz to the bottom 28% in both Hard Hit rate (42.8%) and Average Exit Velocity (89.9 mph).

Even though Wentz has the good fortune of facing a strikeout-prone Yankees offense, we think it’s unlikely we see him capitalize. His strikeout rate this season comes in at 19.7%, with that number dropping to 12.2% in August, per FanGraphs. His 24.2% ground ball rate also poses a massive problem against a Yankees team that has proven it can take opposing pitchers deep over the last week.

What’s the Play?

Gerrit Cole is far and away the better pitcher in today’s matchup, but the variance between his season-log ERA and xERA, along with his inconsistencies this month, make him a potential blow-up candidate today.

Wentz’s inability to keep the ball on the ground also puts the Tigers in a bad spot against a Yankees team that is displaying its power on a nightly basis.

That is often a recipe for a high-scoring affair, and we agree with our model that there is value on the over at 7.5 runs in this matchup.

The Play: Over 7.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 63-70 overall this season, 5-4 against Minnesota this season

• Milwaukee Brewers- 74-58 overall this season, 36-31 as the away team, 9-1 in last ten games

• Tampa Bay Rays- 81-52 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 69-58-5 this season, 35-28-4 as the home team

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 68-58-7 this season, 37-26-5 as the away team

• New York Mets- Under is 76-53-4 this season, 42-20-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 83-51 overall this season, 41-20 as a road underdog

• Seattle Mariners- Run line is 69-63 overall this season, 8-4 in last 12 games

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📝 Angels place several players on waivers. The Los Angeles Angels have put a substantial portion of their roster on waivers, which includes players like Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo Lopez, Dominic Leone, Hunter Renfroe, and Randal Grichuk. This move, which caught the baseball industry off-guard, entails giving away players for a $50,000 waiver fee along with salary relief. The team with the worst record by Thursday will be awarded the player claimed, and this could save the Angels around $7 million in salary, potentially allowing them to go below the $233 million competitive-balance-tax threshold.

❌ Alex Cobb comes one out short of no-hitter. Alex Cobb came close to pitching a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds last night, expressing gratitude to center fielder Austin Slater for a crucial diving catch and Giants manager Gabe Kapler for giving him the chance. Cobb's bid for a no-hitter was thwarted by a ninth-inning double from Spencer Steer, settling for a remarkable complete game with 131 pitches thrown. Despite falling short, Cobb cherished the experience and the support from fans, teammates, and coaches, particularly Slater's remarkable defensive play in the eighth inning.

🤕 Bo Bichette returns to IL shortly after his return. The Toronto Blue Jays have faced another setback as their key player, Bo Bichette, has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right quad strain, just after his return from a previous injury. This poses a significant challenge for the Blue Jays, who are striving to secure a Wild Card spot in the American League. Bichette's absence is a major blow to the team, leaving them hoping for his quick return while also dealing with other injuries, such as Matt Chapman's right middle finger sprain.

🇨🇦 Canada advances further in FIBA World Cup. Canada secured their advancement to the second round of the 2023 FIBA World Cup by defeating Latvia 101-75 on Tuesday. Despite being behind 23-13 after the first quarter, Canada turned the game around with a dominant second half, outscoring Latvia 58-33. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerged as the top scorer with 27 points, supported by RJ Barrett's 22 points. Canada, ranked 15th, will proceed to face Spain and the winner of Brazil-Ivory Coast in the next round, after their initial triumphs over France and Lebanon.

🏈 Kyle McCord named opening day starter for Ohio State. Ohio State coach Ryan Day has named Kyle McCord as the starting quarterback for the team's first game of the season against Indiana, ending a quarterback battle that also involved Devin Brown. The decision comes after evaluating the players' performance throughout the offseason, with McCord slowly rising to the top. Although McCord has been chosen as the starter, Brown's strong performance during the preseason means he will still have opportunities to play, and Day emphasized the importance of finding a rhythm for both quarterbacks based on weekly preparations.

⛳️ United States Ryder Cup team selections announced. Brooks Koepka, who joined the Saudi Arabian-financed LIV Golf League in 2022, has been selected as one of the captain's picks by U.S. team captain Zach Johnson for the Ryder Cup against Europe in Italy. Despite Koepka's involvement with the LIV Golf League, he retains his membership as he paid dues before June 30, 2022, making him eligible for the Ryder Cup. U.S. team captain Zach Johnson chose Koepka, along with Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns, to form the team for the Ryder Cup.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Four NFL teams have won at least five Super Bowls, with three of those teams being the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Dallas Cowboys. What is the fourth team?

Question #2- Several NBA players lose their temper throughout the season, often resulting in a technical foul. Can you name the player with the most technical fouls in NBA history?

Question #3- Stephen Curry is the one of two players in NBA history to have made at least 12 three-pointers in a game more than once. Who is the other player?

Anyone know what has happened on August 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 30th…

1918- MLB legend Ted Williams is born in San Diego, California. Williams would go on to have an amazing MLB career with the Boston Red Sox, one that included 19 All-Star selections, two MVPs, and two Triple Crowns. Williams would also post a .406 batting average during the 1941 season, the last time an MLB player would bat above .400.

1997- The first WNBA Championship takes place, a battle between the Houston Comets and New York Liberty. Houston, who owned an 18-10 record, secured home court advantage for the game, which was just a one-game, win or game contest. The Comets would defeat the Liberty 65-51, with Cynthia Cooper cementing herself in history as the first WNBA Finals MVP.

2006- Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Greg Maddux records his 330th career win in a 7-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds. Maddux surrendered eight hits across seven innings, allowing just two earned runs and striking out three batters. The win moved Maddux into tenth on the all-time list, and today he sits in eighth with 355.

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. Karl Malone

3. Klay Thompson