In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 1-0, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Puck Line Predictions: 1-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 4-2

Over/Under Predictions: 3-3

Run Line Predictions: 3-3

3-star Predictions: 0-0

After two straight days one matchup, the NBA has blessed us with two games on Friday night. The Boston Celtics will take on the Philadelphia 76ers in Philly with the series tied 1-1, and the Denver Nuggets will go to Phoenix up 2-0.

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

Model Predicts- Suns ML, OVER 224.5, Nuggets +4

The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns will square off in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Friday night.

Denver took care of business in Games 1 and 2, defending home court and going up 2-0 in the series. The Western Conference’s No.1 seed had some questions entering this series, but so far they look to be the superior team.

Phoenix looked far from great to start the series, and now the Suns will be without Chris Paul for the next few games. Will the Suns overcome Paul’s absence and get back on track tonight, or will the Nuggets jump out to a commanding 3-0 lead and set up the sweep?

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have taken control of this series, and a large part of the reason why is because of what it has done on the offensive end of the floor.

Per NBA.com Denver owns a 116.2 Offensive Rating through two games. That is 14.1 points higher than Phoenix’s Offensive Rating (102.1), leading to a +28 point differential in the series.

Additionally, Denver’s bench has given it a significant advantage in the series. Not counting garbage time points, the Nugget’s bench is outscoring Phoenix’s bench 33-20, showing that Denver’s reserves as far more capable of scoring the basketball.

There is one concerning trend for Denver though, and that is its low defensive production while playing on the road.

In 41 regular season road games the Nuggets posted a 19-22 record, largely due to their 116.7 Defensive Rating. That road rating ranked 21st in the NBA and was significantly worse than Denver’s 110.3 home Defensive Rating.

The same trend can be seen in the Denver’s two postseason road games, where it owns a Defensive Rating of 112.5. In five postseason home games that rating is 105.3.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns will be without Chris Paul for Friday’s matchup. Paul isn’t the same offensive player that he used to be when it comes to scoring, but his playmaking and ball handling will be missed for a team that lacks depth at his position, outside of Cameron Payne.

However, any team that has Kevin Durant and Devin Booker is still more than capable of piling on the points, and it’s likely we see that in this matchup.

While on their home court the Suns have been by far the best offensive team in the playoffs. Phoenix’s 123.8 Offensive Rating in three postseason home games ranks first in the NBA, 3.7 points higher than the next closest team.

That rating is a direct result of shooting 53.6% overall and 42.0% from behind the arc, per NBA.com. Booker is leading the charge with 37.0 points on 63.2% shooting overall, and Durant is coming in at 27.7 points on 50.9% shooting. Both players are shooting above 41% from three.

As long as those two guys stay hot the Suns can overcome Paul’s injury.

What’s the Play?

Denver on the road is a much different team than what we see in the Mile High City. I think that puts the Suns in position to score at a high rate, but I also believe Denver will contribute with plenty of points.

Phoenix has been as close to lights out as it gets on offense at home, but it is an entirely different story on the other end of the floor. The Suns own the fourth worst home Defensive Rating in the postseason, coming int at 119.2. The Clippers didn’t shoot the ball efficiently in those games but still managed to score 118 points per game.

Additionally, the over is 2-1 in Phoenix home games this postseason, with the one loss being by half a point. The average total in those matchups is 241.

Denver and Phoenix will have plenty of rest after last playing on Monday, and both offenses will go up against sub-par defenses. Expect a shootout in this one.

3-star play: Over 224.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• Boston Celtics- 5-3 overall in postseason, 2-1 as the away team, 24-13 in all games as away favorite

• Philadelphia 76ers- 5-1 overall in postseason, 2-0 as the home team, 3-2 in all games as home underdog

• Denver Nuggets- 6-1 overall in postseason, 1-1 as the away team

• Phoenix Suns- 4-3 overall in postseason, 2-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• Boston Celtics- Over is 5-3 in postseason, 3-0 as the away team with average total of 250

• Philadelphia 76ers- Over is 2-4 in postseason, 1-1 as the home team with average total of 201

• Denver Nuggets- Over is 4-3 in postseason, 1-1 as away team with average total of 226.5

• Phoenix Suns- Over is 4-2-1 in postseason, 2-1 as home team with average total of 241

Spread Trends

• Boston Celtics- 5-3 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 1-2 ATS as the away team

• Philadelphia 76ers- 4-1-1 ATS in postseason, 2-0 ATS as the home team, 4-1 ATS as home underdog in all games

• Denver Nuggets- 5-2 ATS in postseason, 1-1 as the away team

• Phoenix Suns- 2-5 ATS in postseason, 1-2 as the home team

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Boston Celtics

  • Danilo Gallinari (OUT)

• Philadelphia 76ers

  • Joel Embiid (Game Time Decision)

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

• Denver Nuggets

  • Collin Gillespie (OUT)

• Phoenix Suns

  • Chris Paul (OUT)

😳 Bucks fire Mike Budenholzer. The NBA offseason is in full swing for some teams, and the Milwaukee Bucks started it with a bang. Milwaukee fired Mike Budenholzer after five seasons, a move that likely resulted from the Bucks’ first round loss to the Heat. In five years Budenholzer posted a 391-271 record and won Milwaukee its first NBA Championship in 50 years in 2021, so its likely he lands on his feet with another franchise.

🌉 Golden State ties the series against the Lakers. The Golden State Warriors responded in a big way after suffering a loss in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. By the end of the third quarter the Warriors were winning 110-80, dominating the Lakers behind the arc (50.0%) and in the paint (48 Points). Klay Thompson led the way with 30 points, shooting 61% overall and 73% from behind the arc. Game 3 will be in Los Angeles on Saturday.

The NHL will slow down its schedule this evening, giving us only one game. That matchup is between the New Jersey Devils and Carolina Hurricanes, with the Hurricanes owning a 1-0 series lead after defeating the Devils 5-1 on Wednesday.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• New Jersey Devils- 4-4 overall in postseason, 2-2 as the away team

• Carolina Hurricanes- 5-2 overall in postseason, 3-1 as the home team

Over/ Under Trends

• New Jersey Devils- Over is 4-4 in postseason, 2-2 as the away team with average total of 5.00

• Carolina Hurricanes- Over is 4-3 in postseason, 2-2 as the home team with average total of 5.25

Puck Line Trends

• New Jersey Devils- Puck line is 4-4 in postseason, 2-2 as the away team

• Carolina Hurricanes- Puck line is 3-4 in postseason, 1-3 as the home team

New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes

• New Jersey Devils

  • Jonathan Bernier (OUT), Timo Meier (Day-to-Day)

• Carolina Hurricanes

  • Teuvo Teravainen (OUT), Andrei Svechnikov (OUT)

👀 Panthers spoil Toronto’s home ice advantage. The Florida Panthers can’t be stopped right now. After last night’s 3-2 win against Toronto the Panthers find themselves going back home with a 2-0 series lead and on a five-game win streak. Florida was the second wild card team in the Eastern Conference and barely snuck into the postseason, but this squad is proving to the rest of the league that they should not be taken lightly.

🏆 Norris Trophy finalists announced. Erik Karlsson, Adam Fox, and Cale Makar were announced as the finalists for the Norris Trophy, the award given out to the league’s best defenseman. Makar won the award last season and will look to defend the crown, and both Fox (2021) and Karlsson (three times) have won the trophy in the past.

⭐️ Stars bounce back, beat Kraken to tie the series. After losing 5-4 in overtime in Game 1 the Dallas Stars took care of business to tie the series before traveling to Seattle for Games 3 and 4. Dallas dominated in the shots on goal department, out-shooting Seattle 37-27. Joe Pavelski scored his fifth goal of the series last night too, proving to be a massive offensive presence that Seattle can’t seem to slow down.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled for Friday, but due to gaps in the early season data our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 8, Red Sox +1.5

The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies will begin a three-game series on Friday night in the City of Brotherly Love.

Boston enters this matchup as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning six straight games after defeating Toronto 11-5 last night.

On the other hand the Phillies are perhaps the coldest team in baseball, losing four straight games and recently getting swept by the Dodgers.

Two teams with plenty of talent, but clearly they are trending in opposite directions. Will returning home get the Phillies back in the win column like the model predicts, or will Boston extend its win streak to seven?

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox currently sit in third in the AL East with a 19-14 record. About a week ago this team was below .500, but all of a sudden the Sox look like they have found their stride.

Boston has scored an average of 7.83 runs per game during its win streak. As a result Boston ranks third in the MLB in runs per game with 5.91, per TeamRankings.

The nearly 2.0 run spike is due to Boston sizing up the baseball at a consistent rate. According to Baseball Savant the Red Sox have posted a 9.4% Barrel rate or higher in four the last six games, up from their season rate of 8.6%. Additionally, Boston’s Hard Hit rate has surpassed 43.5% in five of those six matchups, another statistic in which Boston is well above its season rate (41.7%).

The hitting has been fantastic, but things could get dicey with Chris Sale on the mound tonight.

Sale is 2-2 on the season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 29.1 innings. Sale is above average in both strikeout and walk rate, but his average exit velocity allowed of 89.9 mph is the highest of his career and is a concern. Opponents are also sizing the ball up well against Sale, as evidenced by his 9.4% Barrel rate.

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper is back in the lineup for Philadelphia after Tommy John surgery. The slugger is hitting .429 with a 1.127 OPS in two games, but his presence has yet to translate to wins for Philadelphia.

The Phillies were most recently dominated by the LA Dodgers, posting a -21 run differential in only three games. The offense wasn’t great in the series, but the result of that run differential comes from Philadelphia’s performance on the mound.

Philadelphia’s starting pitchers posted an 11.08 ERA in three games against Los Angeles, often getting jumped on right out the gate. Things often got messy early, and usually got worse once the bullpen came in. Philly’s bullpen owned a 16.22 ERA in the series.

The bullpen blowing up isn’t anything new. The bullpen has been by far Philadelphia’s biggest issue over the last several years, and this season the group ranks 27th in ERA (5.59) and 28th in WHIP (1.57), per Covers. This is one of the easier pitching staffs to hit against.

The Phillies will get more stability on the mound with Zack Wheeler tonight, who ranks in the top 7% of the MLB in average exit velocity allowed, top 16% in Whiff rate, and top 21% in strikeout rate. However, he has shown some vulnerability on the mound by allowing three or more earned runs in three of seven starts this season.

What’s the Play?

Wheeler ceratinly gives Philadlephia its best chance to get back in the win column, but Boston is a tough team to keep off the bases. Boston has also crushed right-handed pitchers this season, owning a .280 batting average and .827 OPS, per ESPN.

This red hot Red Sox team can get a few runs off Wheeler, and will certainly have the chance to get more against one of the weaker bullpens in the sport. We also expect the Phillies to get a few runs off Sale, who has allowed five earned runs in two of his last four starts.

We agree with our model’s prediction of the over here.

3-star play: Over 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends

• Boston Red Sox- 6-0 in last six games, but 6-7 as the away team this season

• Tampa Bay Rays- 5-2 against division opponents this season

Over/Under Trends

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 23-10 this season, best win percentage in MLB. Over is 9-4 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 19-12-1 this season, 10-3-1 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- Over is 7-4-1 against division opponents this season

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 19-11-1 this season, second highest win percentage

Run Line Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 21-11 overall, 13-6 as a home favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com

👏 Matt Harvey retires after nine seasons. Matt Harvey, former star pitcher of the New York Mets, announced that he has officially retired from Major League Baseball. Harvey was an All-Star with the Mets in 2013, and also had stints with the Reds, Angels, Royals, and Orioles. Harvey is 34 years old and posted a 4.42 ERA and 867 strikeouts in 172 starts.

⬇️ Cleveland sends Plesac Down to Triple-A. Cleveland Guardians pitcher Zach Plesac was sent to down to the minors after a rough start to the season. The 28-year-old has posted a 7.59 ERA in 21.1 innings this season. He was supposed to start tonight’s game against Minnesota but Peyton Battenfield will take his place.

⏎ Justin Verlander makes his return. Justin Verlander returned to the mound in what was his first official start in a Mets uniform. Verlander gave up back-to-back home runs in the first inning, but would hold the Tigers scoreless the rest of the way. New York lost the game 2-0 and has now dropped to .500 after going 2-8 in the last ten games.

💰 Giants extend Dexter Lawrence. The New York Giants and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence have come to terms on an extension, one that is reportedly worth $90 million over four years with $60 million guaranteed. Lawrence was a Pro Bowler in 2022, and in 64 career games has tallied 213 tackles and 16.5 sacks. This is the second major extension of the offseason for New York, with the first being Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract.

🏟 Bills receive approval for new stadium. The Buffalo Bills have had a new stadium in the works for awhile, but as of yesterday the project was officially approved. The new stadium is estimated to cost $1.54 billion and will be built directly across the street from Buffalo’s current stadium in Orchard Park, New York. It is expected to be finished by the start of the 2026 NFL season.

👨‍⚖️ Taylor Lewan sues doctor over ACL repair. Three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan will be taking his talents to the court room instead of the turf this season. Lewan is suing Dr. James Andrews for medical malpractice that left Lewan with “severe and permanent” damage. He was released by the Titans in February because of a failed physical, which likely sparked the lawsuit.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. In today’s NFL there are several quarterbacks that can not only rip defenses apart with their arms, but also cause damage with their legs. As a result, we have seen several quarterbacks surpass the 1,000 rushing yards mark in a season. Can you name the three QB’s to break the 1,000 rush yards mark? (Hint- 1 player did it twice)

2. Believe it or not, there was a time where an NHL coach came off the bench and suited up for his team in the Stanley Cup Finals. That coach would play goalie and only surrender one goal in the matchup. Who was the coach?

3. Every year the NBA hands out awards such as the MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Most Improved Player. Who is the only NBA player to win MVP, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year?

4. Only a handful of NFL players have ever finished the season with negative rushing yards, and those players are usually immobile quarterbacks. However, some running backs do it too. Who was the first running back in NFL history to finish the season with 10 or more carries and gain negative yards?

Anyone know what has happened on May 5th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 5th…

1969- The Milwaukee Bucks sign #1 overall pick Lew Alcindor, known today as Kareem Abdul-Jabaar. Kareem was a star at UCLA before entering the NBA, and that talent would translate very well as he won the MVP, NBA Finals and NBA Finals MVP in his second season. He would win five more MVP’s and NBA Finals’ before retiring, and prior to a few months ago was the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

1978- Pete Rose, a member of the Cincinnati Reds, would make MLB history and become the 14th player ever to reach the 3,000 hit milestone. Rose broke the 3,000 barrier with ease, ending his career with the most hits in MLB history with 4,256. Rose became a controversial character after his career ended, leading to him being permanently banned from baseball.

2021- Baltimore Orioles pitcher John Means throws a no-hitter against the Seattle Mariners. Means would accomplish the feat with 113 total pitches, tallying 12 strikeouts and zero walks along the way. It was the third no-hitter of the 2021 season.

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1. Lamar Jackson (2019,2020), Justin Fields (2022), Michael Vick (2006)

2. Lester Patrick (New York Rangers)

3. Larry Bird

4. Reggie Bush (2016)