An NFC Championship Rematch in the Bay

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAF Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-2

Over/Under Predictions: 5-4

Spread Predictions: 6-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

One NFL games is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Model Predicts- Lions ML, UNDER 50.5, Lions -3.5

The Detroit Lions will hit the road for the second-consecutive week on Monday, taking their talents across the country to battle the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.

Detroit enters this Monday night matchup in the midst of a fantastic season, one that has seen the Lions emerge victorious in 13 of 15 games, including a 34-17 win over the Chicago Bears last week. Meanwhile, San Francisco owns a 6-9 record through 15 games, and was eliminated from the postseason following a loss to the Miami Dolphins last week.

Detroit is fighting for the No.1 seed in the NFC while San Francisco has nothing to play for, and our model projects the Lions to use that motivation to win and cover the spread despite dealing with some defensive injuries. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Lions

• Enter tonight off win over Chicago Bears

  • Won game 34-17 on road. Scored 27 of 34 points in first half

  • Recorded 475 yards of offense compared to 382 for Chicago

• Offense has been elite all season, but especially in December

  • Rank 3rd in EPA/play and 6th in success rate since Week 14 (3 games)

  • Averaging 6.4 yards/play (4th in NFL) and 36.7 points/game (2nd in NFL) in that span

• Defense still riddled with injuries

  • 12 defensive players listed on IR, including Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, Carlton Davis III, and Mekhi Wingo

San Francisco 49ers

• Enter tonight having lost five of last six games

  • Losses to Seahawks, Packers, Bills, Rams, and Dolphins. Win cam against Bears

  • Own -49 point differential in that span

• Offensive production has tanked during losing stretch

  • Weeks 1-10: Ranked 4th in EPA/play and 6th in success rate. Averaged 25.9 points/game

  • Weeks 11-16: Rank 20th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Averaging 16.3 points/game

• Like Detroit, dealing with several injuries, but most are on offense

  • Six offensive lineman listed as OUT, including Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, and Spencer Burford. Colton McKivitz is questionable

  • Lacking running back depth- Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are OUT

What’s the Play?

Detroit is just over a field goal favorite on most sportsbooks for Monday Night Football, but our model projects the Lions to win this game by more than five points. As a result, we’ll back the Lions on the spread as a road favorite.

The absence of a run game has killed the 49ers offensively, and even with Detroit’s injuries on the defensive side of the ball, we don’t expect things to get much better tonight. Per TeamRankings, San Francisco is averaging just 3.9 yards/carry and 91.7 rush yards/game across the last three contests, which has forced the 49ers to heavily favor the pass, throwing the ball on nearly 60% of plays in that stretch. That has made this offense quite predictable, and all the injuries on the offensive line opens up the door for Detroit to figure things out defensively.

Additionally, San Francisco faces plenty of defensive injuries of its own, including to Charvarius Ward and Dre Greenlaw. Not being at full strength on that side of the ball will be a problem against the Lions, as they have yet to be slowed down in recent weeks.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a shootout here, but in the end we don’t expect San Francisco to be able to keep up with Detroit’s level of scoring for four quarters.

The Play: Lions -3.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Lions- 13-2 overall this season, 7-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Lions- Under is 7-8 this season, 4-3 as the away team

• San Francisco 49ers- Under is 7-8 this season, 4-4 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Lions- 10-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-1 ATS as a road favorite

🏈 Saquon Barkely reaches rushing milestone in win over Cowboys. Saquon Barkley’s remarkable first season with the Philadelphia Eagles hit a milestone as he surpassed 2,000 rushing yards during a dominant 41-7 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. He is now the eighth player in NFL history to achieve this feat, with 2,005 yards in 2024, and is on pace to challenge Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards next week against his former team, the New York Giants. After joining the Eagles in the 2024 offseason, Barkley has been a standout performer, leading the league in both rushing and scrimmage yards.

💪 Vikings survive late comeback by Packers to secure 14th win of season. Sam Darnold delivered a career-best performance with 377 passing yards and three touchdowns, leading the Minnesota Vikings to a narrow 27-25 win over the Green Bay Packers and their ninth straight victory, positioning them one win away from securing the NFC's top playoff seed. Despite a late touchdown by Jordan Love that reignited Packers fans, Green Bay fell short and remains winless against the NFC's top teams this season. The Vikings, now 14-2, head into a pivotal final-week showdown in Detroit for the NFC North title and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

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To see all sportsbooks and offers available in your area, click HERE

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which active NHL player has the most hat tricks in his career?

Question #2- What university did Titans quarterback Will Levis attend prior to finishing his collegiate career at the University of Kentucky?

Question #3- Three pitchers, Roger Clemens, Kerry Wood, and Max Scherzer hold the MLB record for strikeouts in a game with 20. Which of those three struck out 20 batters on two separate occasions?

Anyone know what has happened on December 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 30th…

1981- Wayne Gretzky records five goals and one assist in a 7-5 win over the Philadelphia Flyers. The performance gave Gretzky 50 goals and assists for the season in just 39 games, the fastest a player has ever recorded 50 in both categories. It also gave Gretzky a 15-game assist streak, a new NHL record.

2018- Patrick Mahomes becomes the second player in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season. Mahomes accomplished both feats on one play, an 89-yard TD pass to Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson. Mahomes joined Peyton Manning on the small list, which resulted in Mahomes later winning the NFL MVP award.

2020- San Antonio Spurs assistant Becky Hammon becomes the first female to coach an NBA game. Hammon was crowned head coach due to an altercation between Gregg Popovich and several officials, leading to Popovich’s ejection. San Antonio lost the game 121-107, and Hammon is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA.

1. Alex Ovechkin

2. Penn State

3. Roger Clemens