In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Sunday, July 23, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

💪 Jimmy Garoppolo cleared for camp after passing physical. The health of new Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been up in the air for quite some time now, but it appears that the former New England Patriot and San Francisco 49er will be ready for the start of training camp this week. Garoppolo failed a physical after joining the Raiders as a free agent in March, which made Las Vegas rework the 31-year-old’s contract so that the team could walk away from the deal if he wasn’t cleared by the medical staff. However, after passing a physical on Sunday, Garoppolo is still employed and will now attempt to lead the Raiders back to the playoffs for the 24th time in the franchise history.

💻 Running backs hold Zoom meeting over contract issues. Several of the NFL’s star running backs joined forces in a Zoom call on Saturday to discuss the current state of the running back market, per ProFootballTalk on Twitter. The meeting, which was organized by Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, was held in response to the lack of running backs being signed to extensions, such as New York Giants back Saquon Barkley and Las Vegas Raiders tailback Josh Jacobs. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey were all in attendance as well, further showing how deep the high sense of urgency and confusion around the deflated running back market goes.

🤕 Amari Cooper leaves Browns’ practice early. Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper left practice early on Sunday following a “minor tweak”. It is unclear where the teak occurred on Cooper’s body, but Browns general manager Andrew Berry did state that it was unrelated to the core muscle that the star wide receiver had surgery on earlier in the offseason. Cooper is coming off a season in which he tallied 1,160 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, the fifth time in his nine NFL season’s that he surpassed the 1,00 yard mark.

There are 10 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for seven of today’s matchups.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, Under 9, Astros +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will begin a three-game series on Monday night in Houston.

Texas enters today’s matchup coming off a miserable series against the Dodgers, losing two of three games. However, the Rangers are still 7-3 across the last ten matchups and sit in first place in the AL West.

Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a series victory over a poor Athletics team.

Texas is 3-4 against Houston this season, but our model gives the Rangers a slight edge over the Astros tonight. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Astros continue to find the win column?

Texas Rangers

If you only watched the Rangers’ series against the Dodgers over the weekend then you might not have much confidence in Texas tonight. The Rangers managed an 8-4 victory on Sunday, but still posted a -15 run differential across three games in what was a rather one-sided series.

However, as previously mentioned the Rangers are 7-3 in their last ten games, showing that Texas is doing some things right despite the recent hiccup.

FanGraphs has the Rangers listed with a 124 wRC+ since play resumed after the All-Star break a short time ago, the eighth-best mark in the major leagues. Most of the damage that Texas has done at the plate has come against right-handed pitching, a situation where we see its wRC+ rise to 133 while the team’s BABIP comes in at .329.

The offense hasn’t skipped a beat, but the Rangers’ bullpen has been a blemish for this team all season long. The relief pitchers have combined for the fourth-worst ERA in the majors (6.48) and own a 4.57 xFIP since the All-Star break, showing that the group is rather unreliable in the late stages of many games.

Jon Gray (6-5 record, 3.31 ERA) will be in charge of keeping that bullpen locked up for as long as possible this evening. Gray is enjoying the best ERA of his career, but his 4.43 xERA means some regression is on the horizon for the 31-year-old.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are 4-2 in the last six games, a sign that momentum is on the team’s side as they try to close the three-game gap between them and Texas in the AL West. However, those six games came against the Rockies and Athletics, two of the bottom three teams in the majors.

Despite the easier schedule, the Astros recorded an 82 wRC+ and .221 BABIP in the last six games, two categories where Houston ranked in the bottom seven of the major leagues. The Astros scored four runs or less in five of those six matchups, further showing that the bats are much colder than the surface-level numbers indicate.

Luckily, Houston’s pitching was great across those six games, posting a 2.77 ERA, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given Colorado and Oakland’s lack of offensive power. However, Houston’s xFIP in that same stretch comes in at 4.92, ranking the Astros in the bottom eight of the MLB.

We could easily see that ERA spike this evening against a strong Texas offense, and when you consider the fact that Brandon Bielak (5-5 record, 3.46 ERA) is getting the start tonight, the Astros could be in for some trouble.

Bielak’s 3.46 ERA is rather solid, but his 5.49 xERA indicates that he is more of a replacement arm than anything else. The reason for the two-run variance between the two stats is opposing hitters sizing Bielak up consistently, resulting in a 11.1% Barrel rate and 48.5% Hard Hit rate. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the majors in both categories.

What’s the Play?

Neither one of these pitchers gives us much confidence in the grand scheme of things. However, we are much more confident in Texas’ offense this evening and agree with our model that the Rangers can pick up a victory on the road.

Going up against Colorado and Oakland gave Houston some layup victories, yet the Astros still underperformed on the offensive side of things. The numbers indicate that the pitching staff is due for some regression as well, and given Texas’s success against right-handers recently, which Bielak is, we will likely see the Rangers pile on the runs early.

Houston has the better pitching unit in the back half of the game, but we think the league’s best offense can build a lead early and maintain it throughout. Our model thinks the Rangers should be closer to -120 favorites, so we’ll take them at -115.

3-star play: Rangers ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 59-41 overall this season, 25-21 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 55-45 overall this season, 20-9 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Cincinnati tonight)

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 57-41 overall this season, 29-16 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 50-40-9 this season, 23-17-5 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 54-42-3 this season, 31-17-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• San Francisco Giants- Run line is 50-50 overall this season, 30-15 as an underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🙌 Scott Rolen, Fred McGriff inducted into Hall of Fame. Third baseman Scott Rolen and first baseman Fred McGriff were inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday. Rolen, a World Series Champion in 2006 and seven-time All-Star, received 76.3% of the votes in what was his sixth year on the ballot, while McGriff, a World Series champion in 1995 and a five-time All-Star, was inducted unanimously. Both players suited up for several teams during their days in the majors, with Rolen playing for Philadelphia, St. Louis, Toronto and Cincinnati, and McGriff playing for Toronto, San Diego, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, the Chicago Cubs, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

🥇 Orioles defeat Rays for series victory, extend lead in AL East. The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball in 2023, and their dominance continued on Sunday with a 5-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. Baltimore took three of four games against Tampa Bay in the series, propelling the O’s to sole possession of first place in the AL East. The loss is another blemish on what has been quite the downfall for the Rays, who began the season 30-9 but have gone just 31-33 since.

🧹 Washington earns first three-game sweep in two years with win over San Francisco. The Washington Nationals find themselves 23.5 games back of first place in the NL East, but Nationals fans still had something to celebrate following Washington’s 6-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. MacKenzie Gore led the way on the mound, allowing just four hits and striking out eight batter across five innings, and six of Washington’s nine hitters combined for the team’s 11 hits. The win was sixth in the last ten games for the Nats, and it was the first time since the 2021 season that Washington swept its opponent in a three-game series.

⛳️ Brian Harman wins British Open. American golfer Brian Harman stole the show at the British Open over the weekend, cruising to a six-shot win and his first major title. The 36-year-old posted a 4-under par round on Thursday to begin the tournament, which was followed by a 6-under par round on Friday to give the No.26 ranked golfer in the world a five-stroke lead heading into the weekend. He would shoot 3-under par across the final 36 holes, putting an end to any pursuit from Joohyung Kim, Sepp Straka, Jason Day, and John Rahm, who all finished tied for second at 7-under par.

🏒 Ilya Samsonov awarded one-year contract by arbitrator. Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov was given a one-year, $3.55 million contract through arbitration on Sunday, per TSN Sports. The Maple Leafs filed for $2.4 million at the arbitration hearing, while Samsonov came in at $4.9 million. The 26-year-old is coming off a season in which he appeared in just 42 games, posting a .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against-average before suffering additional injuries in the postseason.

💰 NBA board of governors approves Michael Jordan’s sale of Hornets. The NBA’s board of governor’s has officially approved NBA legend Michael Jordan’s sale of the Charlotte Hornets. According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the sale is worth roughly $3 billion, and Jordan’s share was purchased by a group led by Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin. Jordan joined the Hornets’ ownership group in 2006 as a minority owner when the team was still the Bobcats, eventually gaining majority ownership in 2010 after purchasing previous owner Robert L. Johnson’s stake in the team for $250 million.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2008. We’ve gathered the logos of the top-six highest-scoring players of the 2008 NBA season, and its up to you to guess all six players.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 24th…

1978- Pete Rose passes Frankie Frisch to become the MLB’s switch-hit leader with his 2,881st hit. Rose is widely regarded as one of the best hitters in MLB history, recording a major-league most 4,256 throughout his career. However, his ability to do damage from both sides of the plate was perhaps his most valuable trait, posting career averages of .307 and .293 from the left and right side of the plate, respectively.

1979- Boston Red Sox left-fielder Carl Yastrzemski hits his 400th career home run in a 7-3 victory over the Oakland Athletics. The homer made Yastrzemski just the second Red Sox player to reach the 400 home run milestone, joining Ted Williams on the prestigious list. Yastrzemski, who played his entire MLB career in Boston, would retire with 452 home runs, placing him 40th on the all-time list.

1993- New York Mets pitcher Anthony Young records his 27th consecutive loss, setting a new MLB record. Young was mostly used as a starter during the miserable stretch, where he posted an 0-14 record, but was also heavily utilized out of the bullpen, where he posted an 0-13 record. The streak came to an end on July 28th, 1993, the day he earned his first win since April 19, 1992.

1. Dwyane Wade

2. LeBron James

3. Kobe Bryant

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Kevin Durant

6. Antawn Jameson