In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-1

Spread Predictions: 2-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Puck Line Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are a plethora of college football games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. Our model has predictions for 18 of those matchups, which you can find below.

Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats

Model Predicts- Kentucky ML, OVER 50.5, Kentucky -2.5

The Missouri Tigers will travel to Lexington, Kentucky to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night.

Missouri enters this matchup with a stellar 5-1 record, with their only loss coming last week against LSU. Kentucky is in a similar position, owning a 5-1 record and also picking up its first loss of the season last week.

Both of these teams are looking to bounce back and avoid landing in the loss column for consecutive weeks, but our model thinks the Wildcats will be the team to do so. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Missouri Tigers

• Suffered heartbreaking loss to LSU last week

  • Led 25-17 at halftime

  • Recorded 527 total yards- 395 through the air, 132 on the ground

• Offense fell apart in second half, but is still one of best in country

  • Explosive- 16 plays of 40+ yards this season

  • Rank 12th in pass yards per game (322.2)

  • Haven’t found rhythm on ground- 4.20 yards per rush attempt

• Defense is vulnerable in some areas

  • Great against the run- allow 3.39 yards per carry, great stuff rate

  • 92nd second ranked pass defense, vulnerable to explosive pass plays

  • Struggle in red zone- Surrendering TD on 57.14% of red zone trips

Kentucky Wildcats

• Blown out by Georgia last week

  • Final score- 51-13

  • Surrendered 608 total yards of offense- 435 through the air, 173 on the ground

• Defense is vulnerable in passing game

  • Rank 104th in pass yards allowed per game (257.0)

  • 11 plays have gone for 30+ yards

• Make up for pass defense with explosive pass offense

  • 16 plays of 40+ yards, 8 plays of 50+ yards

  • Only 209 yards through the air per game, but 151 on the ground

What’s the Play?

Despite the loss, Missouri’s offense looked terrific last week, and although the same can’t be said about Kentucky, we feel that this is a good spot to back the over.

The key to any over is going against a defense that is vulnerable in the passing game, which both Missouri and Kentucky have proven to be. Last week alone they combined to allow 694 total yards through the air, which gives quarterbacks Brady Cook and Devin Leary a great opportunity to pick up large chunks of yardage in the pass game.

Just like Missouri, Kentucky doesn’t often make a red zone stand, surrendering a touchdown on 60.00% of red zone drives. We think both offenses shouldn’t face much resistance through the air this evening or while inside the 20-yard line, so we expect another SEC shootout to take place.

The Play: Over 50.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• USC- 6-0 overall this season, 2-0 as the away team

• Kentucky- 5-1 overall this season, 4-0 as the home team

• Duke- 4-1 overall this season, 3-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• LSU- Over is 6-0 this season with average total of 77.3 points

• Missouri- Over is 5-1 this season with average total of 58.7 points

• Kentucky- Over is 4-2 this season with average total of 52.5 points

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oregon- 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as the away team

• Arizona- 5-1 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS as an underdog

🦬 Colorado collapses in second half against Stanford. Colorado went into halftime against Stanford up 29-0, but a second half collapse ultimately led to a 46-43 loss in double overtime. Stanford wide receiver Elic Ayomanor caught 13 passes for 294 yards, and extended the game with an incredible catch over Colorado star Travis Hunter to push the game into a second overtime. Colorado's road ahead is even more challenging, as they face top-ranked opponents in four of their remaining five games, making bowl eligibility seem increasingly unlikely.

💪 Fresno State picks up win despite injuries. Fresno State's battered team managed to secure a 37-32 victory against Utah State as both their offense and defense stepped up in crucial moments. Quarterback Logan Fife orchestrated a late-game drive, connecting with receiver Josiah Freeman for a pivotal pass, leading to Malik Sherrod's game-deciding touchdown run. The Bulldogs had to rely on unexpected heroes due to injuries, with Fife making his first start of the season and Freeman delivering a strong performance in place of an injured Mac Dalena.

After only two NHL games on Friday, the league has blessed us with 14 games today. You can see our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups below.

Calgary Flames @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Model Predicts- Flames ML, OVER 6.5, Flames +1.5

The Calgary Flames will begin a five-game roadtrip on Saturday, with the first stop coming in Pittsburgh to face the Penguins.

Calgary began its season on the right foot, taking home a win against the Winnipeg Jets earlier this week. Pittsburgh enters today at 1-1, losing their season opener to the Blackhawks but bouncing back with a 4-0 win over the Capitals last night.

Sportsbooks seem to give a slight edge to the Penguins here, but our model is identifying some value on the Flames. Let’s dive into why that is.

Calgary Flames

• Began season with 5-3 victory over Winnipeg

  • Offense was efficient- 5 goals on only 22 shots

• Underlying metrics in first game show Calgary out-performred

  • Surrendered 37 shots on goal and 18 high-danger chances

  • Scored 5 goals, but expected goals came in at just 0.71 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • Surrendered 3 goals, but expected goals against came in at 5.06

• Starting goalie- Jacob Markstrom

  • Saved the day in Game 1- .919 Save % and .900 high-danger Save %

  • +0.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Mixed results through two games

  • 4-2 loss to Chicago, 4-0 win over Washington

• Solid job on defense so far

  • 8.87 high-danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

  • 1.90 GA/60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations

  • However, defensive regression is looming- xGA/60 sits at 2.69

• Starting goalie- Alex Nedeljkovic

  • First start of season

  • .913 Save % and .836 high-danger Save % last season

  • Ranked 96th out of 107 in GSAx (-8.9) last season

What’s the Play?

To be fair, statistics this early in the season don’t really mean much, so it is tough to say whether or not regression is on the horizon for either one of these teams. However, some advantages can still exist, and we feel that Calgary is on the right side of those advantages today.

This is the second game of a back-to-back for Pittsburgh and is the Penguins’ third game in five days. If it was the middle of the season that wouldn’t be a huge deal, but as we saw yesterday with the Devils, teams simply aren’t in shape yet to deal with that heavy of a workload.

Calgary’s defense was nonexistent against Winnipeg, but they pulled out a win because of a better performance between the pipes and Markstrom gives them an edge in that department again today. We’ll take the Flames on the road here.

The Play: Flames ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Winnipeg Jets- 0-1 overall this season, 26-13-2 at home last season

• Tampa Bay Lightning- 1-0 overall this season, 46-30-6 last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Lightning- Over is 1-0 this season, 40-33-9 last season with average total of 6.55

• Minnesota Wild- Under is 1-0 this season, 44-34-4 last season with average total of 5.74

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 1-0 this season, 48-34 last season

💰Toews sings 7-year extension with Avalanche. Devon Toews has signed a new contract that will keep him with the Colorado Avalanche for seven more seasons. The 29-year-old defenseman, who was in the final year of his previous contract, expressed his excitement to continue with the Avalanche and aims to help bring the Stanley Cup to Colorado. Toews, known for his impressive defensive contributions and leadership, has been a key part of the Avalanche's success in recent seasons, making him a valuable addition to the team for the next eight years.

🐧 Penguins shutout Capitals to begin year 1-1. The Pittsburgh Penguins handed the Washington Capitals a 4-0 loss in new head coach Spencer Carbery’s debut on Friday. Sidney Crosby stole the show on offense, notching two goals, and Evgeni Malkin contributed with a goal and three assists for Pittsburgh. Tristan Jarry posted a 19-save shutout, and the Penguins displayed a smarter and more conscientious game, rebounding from their season opener defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks.

💪 Coyotes pull off comeback against Devils. Nick Bjugstad and Nick Schmaltz scored in the shootout as the Arizona Coyotes overcame a two-goal deficit to defeat the New Jersey Devils 4-3 in their regular season opener. Schmaltz also contributed with a goal and an assist in regulation, while Jesper Bratt and Dougie Hamilton had strong performances for the Devils, who lost after a victory against Detroit the previous night. Rookie Logan Cooley made an impact with two assists in his NHL debut, and Karel Vejmelka made 33 saves for the Coyotes in a closely contested matchup.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Wayne Gretzky, Alex Ovechkin, and which other player are the only three in NHL history have scored more than 800 goals in their career?

Question #2- Two current NBA players played their college basketball at Murray State. Ja Morant is one, but who is the other?

Question #3- Which NFL wide receiver has the highest career receiving yards per game average with 98.1?

Anyone know what has happened on October 14th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 14th…

1979- NHL Legend Wayne Gretzky scores his first NHL goal. Gretzky found the back of the net for the very first time in a matchup with the Vancouver Canucks, a game that would end in a 4-4 tie. Gretzky would end his career with 894 goals, 72 more than the next closest player.

1991- New York Rangers winger Mike Gartner becomes the first player in NHL history to record his 500th goal, 500th assist, and 1,000th point in the same season. Gartner, who was drafted by the Washington Capitals, has tremendous success in the NHL over his 21-year career, tallying 1,335 career points. That currently ranks 33rd all-time, and his accomplishments resulted in his induction into the Hall of Fame in 2001.

2006- The Detroit Tigers defeat the Oakland Athletics 4 games to 0 in the ALCS. Detroit finished the 2006 regular season with a 95-67 record and in second in the AL Central before going on to defeat the Yankees in the ALDS and then the A’s a series later. However, the Tigers came up shirt in the World Series, losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games.

1. Gordie Howe

2. Cameron Payne

3. Justin Jefferson