In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, NBA, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-4

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4

Spread Predictions: 8-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 4-2

Over/Under Predictions: 3-3

Puck Line Predictions: 5-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are tons of NCAA football scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for 20 of today’s matchups. You can see those predictions below.

USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears

Model Predicts- USC ML, OVER 67, USC -10

The Trojans of USC will make the journey up the California coast on Saturday to take on the California Golden Bears.

USC enters this matchup as the No.24 ranked team in the nation with a 6-2 record, but both of USC’s losses have come in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Cal sits at 3-4 overall and has also lost two consecutive games.

Both USC and Cal will be looking to get out of a slump on Saturday afternoon, and our model expects USC to do so in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

USC Trojans

• Two straight losses have ruined National Championship hopes

  • Lost to Notre Dame 48-20, lost to Utah 34-32

• Defense can be blamed for recent struggles

  • Rank 99th in pass yards allowed per game, per cfbstats

  • Vulnerable to explosive plays- Have surrendered 22 plays of 40+ yards, 5 plays of 60+ yards

  • Opponents averaging 41 points per game over last four games

• Luckily have potent offense

  • Putting up 11th most yards per game (499.0) and 3rd most points per game (45.4)

  • Most effective via the pass (obviously)

    • 31 plays of 40+ yards this season

California Golden Bears

• Main source of offense is the run game

  • Rank 20th in nation with 195.5 rush yards per game. 31st in yards per rush attempt (4.91)

  • Top-two backs, Jaydn Ott and Isaiah Ifanse, average at least 5.5 yards per rush attempt

• Who will start at QB is still in question

  • Will either be Ben Finley or Fernando Mendoza

  • Mendoza left game early two weeks ago against Utah, but has been more effective

• Defense struggles at just about everything

  • Create havoc event (tackle for loss, deflection, turnover, etc.) on just 13.6% of snaps

  • Surrender 5.96 yards per play, with most of damage coming against pass (8.0 yards per pass attempt)

What’s the Play?

Neither USC nor California has showed signs of having a competent defense this season, and we agree with our model that both teams will pile on the points today.

The worst thing you can do against USC is give Caleb Williams time to throw. Unfortunately, Cal is creating very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 128th in FBS in sacks with 7 total for the season. The Golden Bears also rank 133rd in tackles for loss, which is last in FBS.

Luckily, USC can be carved up on the ground and through the air, so Cal should be able to keep pace in the early portions of this game. We’ll back the over here.

The Play: Over 67 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Oregon- 6-1 overall this season, 2-1 as the away team

• Air Force- 7-0 overall this season, 4-0 against conference opponents (Play MWC rival Colorado State today)

• Oregon State- 6-1 overall this season, 3-1 against Pac-12 opponents

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• USC- Over is 7-1 this season with average total of 65.38 points per game

• Vanderbilt- Over is perfect 8-0 this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma- 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as the away team

• Rice- 5-2 ATS this season, 3-0 ATS as an underdog

💪 Henderson set to return to Buckeye backfield. Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson is poised to make his return this Saturday against Wisconsin, following a three-game absence due to an undisclosed injury. Ohio State has struggled with running back injuries this season, resulting in just 127.0 yards per game on the ground, so Henderson’s return is certainly a welcome one. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and cornerback Denzel Burke are also likely to return, giving the No.3 team in the nation more fire power on both side sof the ball.

😞 Arch Manning named backup despite injury to Quinn Ewers. Arch Manning, a highly touted college football recruit and the nephew of Eli and Peyton Manning, will not be taking over as the starting quarterback for Texas in place of the injured Quinn Ewers in the game against BYU. Instead, the No. 7 Longhorns have chosen to start redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy, who will be making his first career start. Coach Steve Sarkisian has not yet confirmed whether Manning, who hasn't played this season, will make his collegiate debut in this game, citing the need to prioritize the team's best interests.

There are seven NBA games scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for all seven matchups. You can see those predictions below.

New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, UNDER 225.5, Knicks +3.5

The New York Knicks will continue their three-game road trip on Saturday with a stop in New Orleans to take on the Pelicans.

New York enters tonight’s matchup with a 1-1 record, falling short against the Celtics to open the season but bouncing back last night against the Hawks. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 1-0 after beating the Grizzlies on the road.

This is a the second game in two nights for New York, but our model still gives the Knicks the advantage here. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Knicks

• Have showed resilience early on

  • Down double-digits to Boston, took lead in 4th quarter before losing by 4

  • Managed to hold on to lead down stretch last night despite push from Hawks

• Offense has new feel to it

  • Generating 101.25 offensive possessions per game this season, up from 97.75 last season

  • Poor shooting overall (42.2%), but lighting it up from three (44.7%)

• Defense at its best on perimeter

  • Holding opponents to shooting 33.8% from three

  • Can be exposed inside- allowed 54 points in the paint last night

New Orleans Pelicans

• Starting lineup has lots of firepower

  • Combined to score 91 points in season opener

  • Shot 47.1% overall and 43.8% from three

• Win came against Grizzlies team that is in shambles

  • No Ja Morant, Steven Adams, or Brandon Clarke

• Depth looks like it may be an issue in short term

  • Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall, and Trey Murphy all OUT tonight

  • Lacking true interior presence off bench- bench rotation in Game 1 included 4 guards and Larry Nance

What’s the Play?

It’s usually tough to justify taking a team on a back-to-back this early in the season, but we agree with our model that the Knicks can keep this game close.

One major advantage that New York has right now is the bench. The group is averaging 37.5 points per game, with Immanuel Quickly being the main scoring threat alongside Donte DiVincenzo. The combination of Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein is also a much larger presence down low than Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance, at least on the defensive end of the floor.

New York was rather solid in these spots last season, going 6-4-2 against the spread (ATS) with no rest and 29-17-1 ATS overall on the road. We’ll back those trends to continue tonight.

The Play: Knicks +3.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Knicks- 1-0 overall on road this season, 26-21 as the away team last season (including playoffs)

• Toronto Raptors- 1-1 overall this season, 27-15 as the home team last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Memphis Grizzlies- Under is 2-0 this season, 25-19 last season as the away team

• Utah Jazz- Over is 2-0 this season, 27-13-1 last season as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New York Knicks- 6-4-2 ATS last season with no rest, 29-17-1 ATS as the away team

🙌 Spurs pick up first win of Wembanyama era. Victor Wembanyama played a pivotal role in the San Antonio Spurs' 126-122 overtime victory against the Houston Rockets, making the tying basket in regulation and the opening basket in the extra period. He finished the game with an impressive 21 points and 12 rebounds, with 16 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks coming in the second half and overtime. Devin Vassell contributed 25 points, and Keldon Johnson added 20 to help secure the Spurs' first NBA victory of the season.

🤕 Anfernee Simons out 4-6 weeks with thumb injury. The anticipated partnership of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons in the Portland backcourt will have to wait a few more weeks. Simons, who scored 18 points in Portland’s season opener, is set to undergo surgery to mend a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, sidelining him for 4-6 weeks. This timeline places Simons' return sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas, leaving Malcolm Brogdon likely to start alongside Henderson during his absence.

Game 2 of the 2023 World Series is set to take place tonight. You can find our model’s predictions for that matchup below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 8.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will play one more game in Texas tonight before heading to Arizona for Games 3 through 5 later this week.

Texas jumped out to a 1-0 series lead last night, which was made possible by Corey Seager’s game-tying homer in the bottom of the 9th inning and Adolis Garcia’s walk-off home run in the 11th. However, Arizona held the lead for most of last night, showing it is capable of keeping pace with the Rangers’ high-powered offense.

Our model is leaning slightly toward Texas again tonight, but it sees more value on the total in this spot. Let’s dive into why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Explosive offense continued in last night’s win

  • Scored two runs in first inning, six for the game

  • Seager and Gracia continued to send baseballs over the wall

  • Now own 125 wRC+, .299 BABIP, and .828 OPS in postseason (FanGraphs)

• Bullpen did well, but is still due for regression

  • Allowed zero runs after Eovaldi allowed five in 4.2 innings

  • Now own 3.29 ERA in postseason, but 4.83 FIP

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Montgomery

  • 2.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in postseason

  • Has been streaky- two appearances with zero combined runs, two appearances with 6 combined runs

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Power hitting has fallen off a cliff, but still finding ways to score

  • 13 home runs in first 5 postseason games, but only 6 over last 8 games

  • 27.7% strikeout rate in last 8 games is concerning, but .305 BABIP is a good sign

• Shockingly, bullpen is what lost the game

  • Paul Sewald gave up his first runs of postseason from Seager homer

  • Group now owns 3.15 ERA and 4.06 FIP in postseason

• Starting pitcher- Merrill Kelly

  • 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in postseason

  • Ranks in bottom 30% of MLB in Hard Hit rate and average exit velocity

What’s the Play?

Both starting pitchers have been great this postseason, but we’ll back the over again tonight.

Arizona’s high strikeout rate is concerning, but Montgomery owns a 21.4% strikeout rate and 47% Whiff rate this year, showing he isn’t overwhelming hitters. Additionally, we have seen both Montgomery and Kelly get roped at some point this postseason, and both of these offenses are more than capable of making that happen again.

Expect the runs to flow once again.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 10-3 overall in postseason, 2-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 4-1 in postseason home games with average total of 10.8 runs

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 10-3 in postseason

💥 Garcia, Seager save Rangers in Game 1. While many considered the World Series matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers to be underwhelming, a thrilling 11-inning Game 1 proved the naysayers wrong. Adolis García, who has been on a homer spree, delivered the game-winning shot, securing the Rangers' victory, with Corey Seager also contributing a crucial two-run blast to force extra innings. Both Seager and García are now making their mark in postseason lore, defying expectations in a World Series that promises excitement.

🤔 MLB to revisit new playoff format. Following the surprising losses of 100-win teams like Atlanta, Baltimore, and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Division Series, the MLB plans to evaluate its postseason format, although it won't rush into changes. MLB expanded the playoffs from 10 to 12 teams for the 2022 season as part of a five-year collective bargaining agreement. While there is a motivation for conversation about potential changes, Commissioner Rob Manfred believes the current format has served the league well, and discussions will likely take place after the postseason concludes.