In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-2

Over/Under Predictions: 5-3

Spread Predictions: 4-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Nine NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups can be found below.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers

Model Predicts- Lightning ML, OVER 6, Lightning +1.5

The Tampa Bay Lightning will finish off a three-game road trip on Tuesday night, with the final stop coming in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to take on the Flyers.

Tampa Bay enters tonight’s matchup as one of the hotter teams in the league, winning seven of its last ten games. That stretch has pushed the Lightning’s season record to 24-18-5, while a two-game losing streak has the Flyers sitting in second in the Metropolitan division with a 25-16-6 record.

Tampa Bay has the momentum entering tonight’s battle, and our model thinks that will be enough to give the Lightning the win. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Tampa Bay Lightning

• 7-3 record in last ten games

  • Held opponents to two goals or less in five of ten matchups

  • +9 goal differential in that time

• Due to see positive regression on both ends of ice

  • Offense- 2.02 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations compared to 2.39 xGF/60

  • Defense- 2.55 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations compared to 2.3 xGA/60

• Expected goalie- Andrei Vasilevskiy

  • .909 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 24th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +4.3

Philadelphia Flyers

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • Losses to Avalanche and Senators

  • Outscored 12-7 in that stretch

• Defense has started to fall apart

  • 2.82 GA/60 in 5-on-5 since January 1st. Was 2.39 prior to 2024

  • 6-4-1 record in 2024, with perfect 3-0 record in overtime

• Expected goalie- Carter Hart

  • .909 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 56th in GSAx (-0.8)

What’s the Play?

Philadelphia has put tons of pressure on opposing defenses lately, averaging 37.2 shots on goal per game across the last five contests. That is always going to keep the Flyers in many games, but we agree with our model that Tampa Bay can end its road trip with a win tonight.

Philly’s defense was elite in the first 2.5 months of the season, but seeing it slowly become more vulnerable is a bad sign. Tonight’s starting goalie, Carter Hart, is a large reason for the collapse, as he ranks 62nd in Save % in 5-on-5 situations (.882) since January 1st, most recently surrendering five goals on just 15 shot attempts the last time we saw him on the ice.

Tampa Bay is a team that is due to see positive regression, which we will likely see against a struggling Flyers squad. As a result, we’ll back the Lightning tonight.

The Play: Lightning ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Lightning- 24-18-5 this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• New York Rangers- 29-15-2 this season, 14-9-2 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Dallas Stars- Over is 28-17-1 this season with average total of 6.72

• Detroit Red Wings- Over is 26-20 this season with average total of 6.80

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 28-18 this season

• St. Louis Blues- Puck line is 24-20 this season

✈️ Jets surrender more than three goals for first time in 35 games. Boston's Charlie Coyle netted the decisive goal late in the first period, securing the Bruins' fifth consecutive victory with a 4-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets. The Bruins showcased their formidable defense, limiting the Jets to one goal and extending their impressive record to 10-1-3 in their last 14 games. Despite Winnipeg's reputation as the league's best defensive team, Boston's offensive prowess prevailed, leaving the Jets with a 5-1 loss in their previous encounter on Dec. 22.

💪 Demko earns fifth shutout of season. Thatcher Demko earned his fifth shutout of the season by making 31 saves, leading the Vancouver Canucks to a 2-0 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday night. Pius Suter and Quinn Hughes contributed goals, while Andrei Kuzmenko provided two assists, securing Vancouver's third consecutive win. Despite Petr Mrazek's 27 saves for Chicago, the Blackhawks failed to secure back-to-back wins this season, following their 4-3 overtime triumph against the New York Islanders on Friday night.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who was the first quarterback selected in the 2006 NFL Draft?

Question #2- Who was named the NBA MVP for the 2010-11 season?

Question #3- Zack Greinke played for what MLB from 2019-2021 prior to last year’s stint with the Kansas City Royals?

Anyone know what has happened on January 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On January 23rd…

1994- The Buffalo Bills defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Buffalo scored 30 points to Kansas City’s 13, led by Thurman Thomas’ 186 rush yards and three touchdowns. However, Buffalo would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Dallas Cowboys, losing 52-17.

2015- Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson sets the NBA record for the most points scored in one quarter. Thompson set the mark by scoring 37 points in the third quarter, ending the game with 52 total. Thompson also hit nine three pointers in the quarter, setting a new NBA record in that category as well.

2018- LeBron James becomes the seventh player in NBA history to reach 30,000 career points. James reached the milestone in a 114-102 loss to the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 28 points on 10/23 shooting. James now has 39,643 points for his career, the most in NBA history.

1. Vince Young

2. Derrick Rose

3. Houston Astros