In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and NHL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-4

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6

Spread Predictions: 6-5-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 6-2

Over/Under Predictions: 4-2-2

Puck Line Predictions: 1-7

Featured Matchup: 0-0

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• Our NFL model’s Anytime TD Scorers for Week 14 (Already posted on site)

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• Our model’s NBA and NHL Power Rankings (Posting Monday and Tuesday)

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The NFL is throwing two Monday Night Football games at us this week, with games kicking off at 8:15 PM Eastern. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

Model Predicts- Packers ML, OVER 37, Packers -6

The Green Bay Packers will make their way to MetLife Stadium for a clash with the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Green Bay enters tonight’s matchup as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning three consecutive games over the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs to push its record to an even 6-6. New York has also found some success lately, going 2-0 over the last two weeks, but sits at 4-8 for the season and is likely out of playoff contention.

Tommy DeVito has been a good story in what has otherwise been a miserable season for the Giants, but our model expects the magic to end tonight with a sizable Packers win. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Green Bay Packers

• Have turned season around in last three weeks

  • Beat Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs

  • +18 point differential in that span

• Jordan Love has found his footing

  • At least 267 passing yards in four straight weeks. 10 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in same timeframe

  • 68.5% completion % in last three games

• Still some question marks on defense

  • Allowing 5.9 yards per play over last three games. Up from 5.2 for season

  • Rank 21st in success rate and 22nd in EPA/play

New York Giants

• Come out of bye week on two game win streak

  • Defeated Washington and New England. +15 point differential

• Tommy DeVito has played solid during win streak, but offensive line is struggling

  • Completing 68.6% of his passes, 4 touchdowns a 0 interceptions

  • Sacked 15 times over last two games. O-line ranks 27th in pass block win rate

• Defense has made some plays recently, but is still bad

  • Rank bottom five in opponent success rate, 25th in run stop win rate

What’s the Play?

Both Green Bay and New York are starting to find success, but what the Packers have done recently is far more noteworthy. As a result, we’ll back Green Bay on the spread tonight.

As previously mentioned, the Packers win streak comes against the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs, with two of those teams considered to be conference contenders. Meanwhile, New York’s has come against Washington and New England, two teams that are fighting for top-five picks in next year’s draft.

Jordan Love is finally starting to cook, and although Green Bay’s defense has some vulnerabilities, they should have no problems creating pressure on a Giants offensive line that has holes all throughout. That will once again put Tommy DeVito in a tough spot, but this time there is a far more capable offense on other sideline to pounce on a weak Giants defense. Our model expects Green Bay to win by just over a touchdown, so we’ll take the Packers at -6.

The Play: Packers -6 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Green Bay Packers- 6-6 overall this season, 3-0 in the last three weeks

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Green Bay Packers- Over is 6-6 this season, 3-1 in last four weeks with average total of 45.5

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Green Bay Packers- 7-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-3 ATS as the away team

🤯 Bills survive late-game scare in Kansas City. The Buffalo Bills secured a critical 20-17 win against the Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, at Arrowhead Stadium, maintaining their playoff chances. The Chiefs' appeared to have scored the go-ahead touchdown through a Travis Kelce lateral to Kadarius Toney with under two minutes remaining, but the play wasnullified due to Toney lining up offside. The Bills now sit at 7-6, while the Chiefs suffered their second consecutive loss.

🤕 Jefferson suffers injury in return from IR. Minnesota Vikings' wide receiver Justin Jefferson returned to the field on Sunday for the Vikings game against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, Jefferson sustained a chest injury early in the game, prompting his absence for the remainder of the match. Despite the injury scare and subsequent hospital evaluation, Jefferson returned to join the team post-game and will travel back with the Vikings, who picked u pan ugly 3-0 win without their star.

A big day of NBA basketball is on deck today, with 26 teams set to hit the hardwood following the conclusion of the In-Season Tournament. Our model’s predictions for all of today’s matchups are below.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic

Model Predicts- Magic ML, UNDER 227, Magic -1.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers will continue their four-game road trip on Monday, staying in Florida to take on the Orlando Magic following a win over the Miami Heat last week.

Cleveland enters tonight’s matchup with a 13-9 record, one that has been built by beginning the month of December with three victories and zero losses. Orlando is in a similar position following the end of the In-Season Tournament, posting 15-7 record through the first 22 games of the regular season.

Cleveland already beat Orlando this month, but our model forecasts a different outcome tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Have dominated during three-game win streak

  • +10.6 Net Rating- 6th in NBA in this time

  • Success largely due to defense- 103.0 Defensive Rating in last six games. Opponents shooting 46.2% overall and 26.3% from three

• Offense is still dealing with some problems

  • lack perimeter shooting- 34.8% from three as team

  • Very little scoring depth- rank 24th in bench points per game

• Dealing with key injuries tonight

  • Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert are out

Orlando Magic

• Just as good defensively as Cleveland

  • Rank 2nd in Defensive Rating (108.9)

• Offense is starting to see improvements

  • 118.4 Offensive Rating in last five games. Up from 113.9 for season

  • Shooting 51.2% from floor in that time. 48.4 bench points per game (1st in NBA)

• Also dealing with injuries

  • Wendell Carter Jr. and Markelle Fultz are out. Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac are questionable

What’s the Play?

Injuries are going to play a large factor tonight, but we agree with our model that the Magic will be outright winners.

Orlando has two significant advantages here. One is that the Magic bench has stepped up big time over the last several games, which has been the case all season long. Even with key rotation players injured, the Magic have the depth to replace any missing production, a big reason why we have not seen much of a slowdown with players sidelined.

Another advantage for Orlando comes on the glass. The Magic are one of the top rebounding teams in the NBA already, and those opportunities will be even more abundant now that Evan Mobley, Cleveland’s leading rebounder, is sidelined for this matchup.

The Cavaliers got the win the first time around, but this is a good spot to back the Magic.

The Play: Magic ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Orlando Magic- 15-7 overall this season, 10-2 as the home team

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 17-4 overall this season, 6-0 in last six games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Dallas Mavericks- Over is 15-6 this season, 8-3 as the away team

• Denver Nuggets- Under is 14-9 this season, 9-4 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Orlando Magic- 16-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-1 ATS as a home favorite

• Houston Rockets- 12-5-2 ATS this season, 2-0-1 ATS as a home favorite

💪 Beal to make return on Tuesday against Warriors. Phoenix Suns star Bradley Beal is poised to make his return against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. Beal has been sidelined for a month due to a back injury, resulting in Beal appearing in just three games this season. Beal’s return to the court will helpd a struggling Suns squad, one that has lost four of its last five games.

🤕 Irving suffers heel contusion in over Portland. Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving sustained a right heel contusion during their victory over the Portland Trail Blazers last week. The injury occurredwhen teammate Dwight Powell accidentally tripped over Irving while pursuing a loose rebound in the first half, forcing Irving to exit the game prematurely. The star guard has since returned to Dallas for treatment, with no confirmed timetable for his comeback.

We have a slow day of NHL hockey to begin the week, as only eight teams are scheduled to hit the ice. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups are below.

Arizona Coyotes @ Buffalo Sabres

Model Predicts- Coyotes ML, UNDER 6.5, Coyotes +1.5

The Arizona Coyotes will continue a three-game road trip on Monday, with the next stop coming in Buffalo to take on the Sabres.

The first leg of Arizona’s road trip got off to a poor start, seeing the Coyotes fall 5-3 to the Boston Bruins. The loss was the second in a row for Arizona, but the Coyotes are still 13-11-2 for the season. Meanwhile, Buffalo owns a 11-14-3 record, and is just 3-5-2 over its last ten games.

Neither one of these teams is trending in the right direction, but our model shows an edge on Arizona as a road underdog tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Arizona Coyotes

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • Losses to Flyers and Bruins. -5 goal differential

  • Won five straight games prior to losing skid

• Impressive balance on offense and defense

  • Rank in top-12 in GF/60 and GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • 7th in power play success (24.4%)

  • Susceptible to some pressure on defense- 31.6 shots on goal allowed per game, 5th most high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Connor Ingram

  • .924 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 8th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +9.4

Buffalo Sabres

• Struggling to find any momentum

  • 1-4 overall in December. Have yet to win consecutive games this season

• Offensive issues have plagued team

  • Rank 24th in xGF/60 and 21st in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5

  • 22nd in shots on goal per game (30), 26th in power play success

• Expected goalie- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

  • .909 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 42nd in GSAx (-0.1)

What’s the Play?

At their best, the Buffalo Sabres are an average team in every aspect of the game, and we agree with our model that Arizona can win as an underdog tonight.

Buffalo’s lack of pressure on opposing goaltenders is a real concern. Night after night the Sabres fail to generate high-danger scoring chances, and it has hindered them from finding a rhythm on offense. Arizona isn’t much better, ranking 30th in shots on goal per game, but the Coyotes are far more efficient shooting the puck at even strength and on the power play.

Arizona executes its offense at a much higher level, and has the better goalie in net with Connor Ingram. Getting the Coyotes as an underdog is a great price.

The Play: Coyotes ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Arizona Coyotes- 13-11-2 overall this season, 5-2 in last seven games

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 14-6-4 overall this season, 8-4-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Buffalo Sabres- Under is 14-9-5 this season with average total of 6.18

• New York Islanders- Over is 12-10-4 this season with average total of 6.27

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is 17-6 this season

👨‍⚖️ Perron to have hearing for nasty cross-check. Detroit Red Wings' David Perron faces a hearing by the NHL's Department of Player Safety due to cross-checking Ottawa Senators' Artem Zub in Saturday’s game. Perron's action occurred in the first period of a 5-1 loss for Detroit, coinciding with a concerning injury to Red Wings' captain Dylan Larkin. This incident isn't the first time Perron has faced consequences for cross-checking, having previously been fined $5,000 for a similar action against then-Colorado Avalanche forward Nazem Kadri in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.