In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 6-5

Run Line Predictions: 7-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

🤕 Saquon Barkley likely our multiple weeks. The New York Giants will be without star running back Saquon Barkley for Week 3 and possibly longer, as further testing on Monday revealed an ankle sprain, making his status week-to-week. He sustained the injury during the fourth quarter of the Giants' victory over the Cardinals on Sunday, one that saw New York comeback from being down 20-0. While the prognosis is a relief given the nature of the injury, it's still a significant setback for a team that has struggled early on in 2023.

💰Mahomes, Chiefs restructure contract. The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have restructured their contract, securing Mahomes $210.6 million for the 2023-2026 period, making it the highest payout in NFL history over four seasons, with this compensation now fully guaranteed, according to the quarterback's agent as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter. Despite being surpassed in terms of average annual pay by several quarterbacks, Mahomes will now earn an average of $52.6 million over the next four seasons, bringing his contract more in line with recent quarterback deals.

🚑Nick Chubb carted off against Steelers. Cleveland Browns star running back Nick Chubb sustained a gruesome knee injury during Monday night's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Chubb had to be carried off the field and was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the game after a tackle by Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick caused his left knee to twist unnaturally. Steelers fans showed their support by chanting "Chubb" as he was taken off, but the injury raises concerns, especially given his previous knee injuries during his college career.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, UNDER 9, Orioles +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros will square off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Tuesday night.

Baltimore got the best of Houston in Game, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning to secure an 8-7 lead, and eventually the win. The win marked the third straight for the Orioles, while the loss was the fifth in the last seven games for Houston.

Houston is still fighting for the top spot in the AL West, but our model thinks Baltimore can squeeze out another win tonight. let’s dive into why that is and see what our model’s best bet is for this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles

• Red hot at the plate over last few weeks

  • Rank 4th in wRC+ (119), 1st in BABIP (.341), and 5th in OPS (.794) since September 1st

  • 6.06 runs per game in that time

• Been even hotter during three-game win streak

  • Have seen wRC+ and BABIP rise to 125 and .413, respectively- rank in top five in each category

  • High strikeout rate (27.0%) during win streak, but scoring 7.0 runs per game and own +10 run differential

• Kyle Gibson (14-9 record, 4.98 ERA) set to start on mound

  • Solid last two starts- 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 12.2 innings

  • Vulnerable to hard contact (44.8% Hard Hit rate), but generates tons of ground balls (49.8% GB%)

  • 4.71 xERA shows he has gotten slightly unlucky

Houston Astros

• Just as hot as Baltimore in September

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (135) and OPS (.857)

  • 31 home runs this month is second most in MLB

  • Not doing much outside of home runs though, as evidenced by .285 BABIP

• Offense has started to slump over last seven games though

  • wRC+ and BABIP have dropped to 107 and .256, respectively

  • -3 run differential in that time

• Hunter Brown (11-11 record, 4.61 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 7.29 ERA in last five starts, which includes allowing zero earned run in his most recent appearance

  • Struggles with hard contact- bottom 18% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (43.9%) and average exit velocity (90.7 mph)

  • 9.7% Barrel rate leaves him vulnerable to home runs- 1.89 home runs per nine innings since All-Star break

What’s the Play?

It’s always exciting when two of the league’s top offense collide against pitchers that have had their fair share of struggles this season. However, we agree with our model that Baltimore can pick up another win today as an underdog.

Kyle Gibson is just as susceptible to the home run ball (1.64 HR/9 since All-Star break) when compared to Hunter Brown, but as of right now he is the one with the offense behind him that is able to correct any mistakes. That bats just aren’t as hot for Houston right now, which will likely be the difference maker given Brown’s recent struggles.

Our model thinks Baltimore should be favored with odds around -115, so we’ll take the O’s at +120.

The Play: Orioles ML (+120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Milwaukee Brewers- 84-66 overall this season, 26-17 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival St. Louis today)

• Texas Rangers- 82-68 overall this season, 45-31 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- 94-56 overall this season, 28-20 as a road underdog, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 85-63-3 this season, second-highest win % in MLB

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 78-67-5 this season, 42-30-3 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 79-63-8 this season, 43-27-6 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 81-70 overall this season, 63-61 as a favorite

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 93-59 overall this season, 34-17 as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🏟Rays set to build new stadium. The Tampa Bay Rays are set to announce the finalization of a deal for a new stadium in St. Petersburg, Florida. The construction of this 30,000-seat domed stadium, expected to be operational by 2028 and costing over $1.2 billion, is likely to put an end to speculations about the Rays relocating to another city. The Rays' current lease at Tropicana Field, which is a dome, concludes in 2027, and the team had contemplated moving to a different location, including nearby Tampa, due to consistently low attendance.

🙌 Wainwright picks up 200th career win. Adam Wainwright recorded his 200th career win as he and the Cardinals secured a 1-0 victory over the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Wainwright, who will retire after the 2023 season, became only the third pitcher in history to reach the 200-win milestone with the St. Louis Cardinals and the sixth active pitcher to do so. Despite facing challenges and setbacks during his career, Wainwright leaves a legacy of excellence, marked by three All-Star selections, two Gold Glove awards, four Top 3 Cy Young Award finishes, and a World Series championship.

👎Diaz won’t pitch for Mets in 2023. Mets closer Edwin Díaz will not make a return to Major League Baseball this season despite significant progress during six months of rehabilitation following surgery to repair his right knee's patellar tendon. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner stated that it's too risky to bring him back, expressing concerns about fielding, covering bases, and risking re-injury. Díaz will continue to participate in bullpen sessions until the end of September, followed by knee rehab exercises in the offseason.

🏈 Alabama goes back to Milroe as QB. Alabama's offensive woes, including quarterback instability and issues with the offensive line, receivers, and running backs, have contributed to a disappointing start to the season. The Crimson Tide have already lost to Texas and struggled against South Florida, causing them to fall out of the AP's top 10 rankings for the first time in eight years. As a result, head coach Nick Saban has opted to start Jalen Milroe once more, recognizing his leadership and superior performance among the quarterbacks.

🔔 Kelly Oubre signs with 76ers. Kelly Oubre Jr., a free agent guard/forward, is set to join the Philadelphia 76ers on a one-year contract. Oubre is expected to play a significant role on the wing, especially with uncertainty surrounding James Harden, who has requested a trade from the team. The Sixers have lost several players in free agency, opening up the opportunity for Oubre to contribute as a key scorer coming off the bench, given his reputation as a solid scorer with a career field goal percentage of 43.4%.

🏒 Babcock resigns as Blue Jackets head coach. Mike Babcock stepped down as the head coach of the Columbus Blue Jackets, and Pascal Vincent has been named as his replacement, as confirmed by the team. Babcock, who had been hired in July, previously served as the head coach for the Toronto Maple Leafs before his dismissal in November 2019. Recent allegations, including his request to view players' personal photos, played a role in his resignation, but Babcock and Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner minimizing the seriousness of the accusations.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Frank Reich is the current head coach of the Carolina Panthers, and was the head coach of one other team before his time as a Panther. Can you name that team?

Question #2- Who has won the most regular season MVPs in MLB history?

Question #3- NBA legend Vince Carter is most known for his time with the Raptors and Nets, but what team drafted Carter and then traded him on draft night?

Anyone know what has happened on September 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 19th…

1986- Chicago White Sox pitcher Joe Crowley throws a no-hitter in a 7-1 win over the California Angels. Crowley would strikeout eight batters and walk just one on his way to the milestone, giving him his 11th win of the season and lowering his ERA to 3.88. His career would end shortly after though, with his final season coming in 1987 with the Phillies.

2008- Greg Maddux pitches his 5,000th inning in a game against the San Francisco Giants. Although he reached an historic milestone, the outing wasn’t the greatest, with Maddux allowing seven runs in just five innings. Maddux is just one of 13 pitchers in MLB history to reach the 5,000 inning mark, and would end his career with 5,800.1.

2017- MLB teams set a new record for home runs in a season, launching 5,694. Aaron Gordon of the Kansas City Royals hit the homer to break the record, and 6,105 would be hit by the end of the season. Giancarlo Stanton led the charge in the record-breaking season, hitting 59 dingers.

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. Barry Bonds

3. Golden State Warriors