In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-4

Over/Under Predictions: 7-8

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Six MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all six matchups can be found below.

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Guardians ML, UNDER 9.5, Guardians +1.5

The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros will wrap up a three-game series on Thursday, with Game 3 scheduled to take place at 8:10 PM Eastern.

The Guardians and Astros have split the first two games of this series, with Houston taking Game 1 and Cleveland taking Game 2, but these squads have had entirely different seasons up to this point despite a fair battle over the last two days. Cleveland enters tonight’s matchup with a stellar 20-10 record, while Houston is just 10-20 and in the basement of the AL West.

The Guardians have easily been the better team thus far, and our model projects that will be the case once again tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Cleveland Guardians

• Split first two games of series

  • Lost Game One 10-9, won Game Two 3-2

  • Owned 9-8 lead in ninth inning of Game One before losing on walk-off home run

• Seeing ball well at plate in series

  • Own 140 wRC+ and .824 OPS in last two games. Have launched four home runs

  • Generating walks at high clip (13.1%), up from season average at 7.9%

• Starting pitcher- Logan Allen

  • Owns 5.46 ERA against 4.41 xERA

  • Has been vulnerable to hard contact and barrel early on- 42.3% Hard Hit rate and 10.3% Barrel rate rank in bottom 32% of MLB

Houston Astros

• Have dug themselves a hole after one month of play

  • Have won just 10 of first 30 games

  • Own 4-9 record and -9 run differential in last 13 contests

• Offense has been great, but pitching staff is amongst worst in MLB

  • Offense- Ranks 5th in wRC+ (116), 16.7% strikeout rate is the best in MLB

  • Starting pitchers- 5.10 ERA, 4.24 FIP vs 4.54 xFIP

  • Relievers- 4.90 ERA, 4.35 FIP vs 4.16 xFIP

• Starting pitcher- Spencer Arrighetti

  • Getting lit up on mound- owns 10.97 ERA, but xERA sits at 4.38

  • Ranks in bottom 18% in walk rate (12.1%) and ground ball rate (34.3%)

What’s the Play?

The Houston Astros offense has been great and certainly has a chance to put some runs on Logan Allen, who has surrendered at least four runs in three of his last four outings. However, we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the Guardians as an underdog.

One major advantage that Cleveland has comes in the bullpen. The Guardians relievers own the best ERA in baseball at 2.49, a result of surrendering just 0.45 home runs per nine innings and ranking inside the top-three in both walks/9 and strikeouts/9. Meanwhile, Houston’s bullpen ranks in the bottom nine of MLB in walks/9 (4.10) and HR/9 (1.12), flaws that have enabled many teams to break games open in the late stages.

Both starting pitchers are due to see positive regression and have an offense that can provide run support, but Houston’s instability in the bullpen and Arrighetti’s struggles give value to Cleveland tonight. We’ll back the Guardians.

The Play: Guardians ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Red Sox- 18-13 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

• Cleveland Guardians- 20-10 overall this season, 12-6 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 16-12-2 this season, 9-8-1 as the home team

• Houston Astros- Under is 19-9-2 this season, 9-5-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 19-11 this season, 14-4 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 22-8 this season, 13-3 as an underdog

💪 Buehler scheduled to make return to mound next week. Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler will return from the injured list on Monday to start against the Miami Marlins, as announced by manager Dave Roberts. Buehler, recovering from Tommy John surgery, last played in the majors in June 2022, undergoing the procedure for the second time in his career. His recent rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma City was impressive, with one run allowed and five strikeouts over five innings, contributing to his overall rehab performance of a 4.15 ERA, 21 strikeouts, and nine walks in six minor league appearances

🔟 Twins beat White Sox for 10th straight win. Max Kepler and José Miranda each drove in runs with singles in the seventh inning, propelling the Minnesota Twins to a 10-5 comeback victory over the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. The win extended Minnesota’s winning streak to 10 games, the longest in the majors this season and the Twins' longest since June 2008. Despite the Twins' early struggles, they managed to tie the game in the sixth inning and capitalize on a key error by the White Sox to take the lead, with contributions from Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and Ryan Jeffers.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What starting pitcher leads the MLB in ERA this season, posting a 0.78 ERA thus far?

Question #2- The New England Patriots drafted what future Prow Bowl defensive lineman in the first round of the 2004 NFL Draft?

Question #3- Former MLB pitcher David Price played for five MLB teams in his career- the Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and what other team?

Anyone know what has happened on May 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 2nd…

1987- New York Islanders star Mike Bossy plays his final NHL game. Bossy’s final appearance on the ice was a 5-1 elimination game loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, a game in which Bossy was held without a point. Bossy ended his career with 1,126 points, all of which came with the Islanders.

1999- NFL quarterback John Elway announces his retirement from the league. Elway was drafted with the No.1 overall pick in the 1983 draft by the Denver Broncos out of Stanford University, the only team Elway would play for in his career. He would suit up for the Broncos for 16 years, winning one MVP and two Super Bowls in that time.

2023- Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid wins the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award. The honor came as a result of Embiid averaging 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, while simultaneously leading the 76ers to 54 wins and the No.3 seed in the Eastern Conference. It was the first MVP for Embiid in his career, and the first for a 76ers player since Allen Iverson.

1. Shota Imanaga

2. Vince Wilfork

3. Los Angeles Dodgers