In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-2

Over/Under Predictions: 5-5

Run Line Predictions: 3-7

3-star Predictions: 1-0

👀 Tobias Harris garnering interest from teams around the league. Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris has been the subject of trade rumors ever since signing a five-year, $180 million contract in 2019. However, it appears that those rumors finally have some legs as we approach the official start of the NBA offseason. Per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers have all inquired about Harris’ availability and standing within the 76ers, however, Philadelphia has stated it will only make a trade if the offer is “hard to pass up”. Harris was acquired by the 76ers via trade from the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019, most recently posting 14.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 50.1% shooting overall and 38.9% from three.

📈 Brandon Miller is climbing up the draft board. It’s hard to climb up draft boards when you are a consensus top-3 pick, but former Alabama star and SEC Player of the Year Brandon Miller has done just that. It was reported that Scoot Henderson was likely to be the second overall selection in Thursday’s draft following Frenchman Victor Wembanyama, but the Charlotte Hornets were impressed with Miller following his second workout with the team on Monday, per Adrian Wojnarowski. It appears that Miller has received the stamp of approval from Michael Jordan too, so is more confirmation really needed at this point?

There are eight MLB games scheduled to take place throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, a far cry from the 15 we had at our disposal on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, due to some gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for seven of today’s matchups.

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

Model Predicts- Rays ML, OVER 7.5, Rays -1.5

The Kansas City Royals will travel to Tampa Bay to take on the MLB’s best team in a four-game series beginning on Thursday.

Kansas City enters today’s tilt with a 20-54 record, the second-fewest wins in all of baseball. They’ve struggled to make much of anything happen in 2023, and things have gotten even worse in June, going just 3-15 overall.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays own a 52-25 record and a 5.0-game lead in the AL East.

There is no question that the Rays should be massive favorites here, especially when considering the fact that Kansas City is going to be trotting out its bullpen early and often in this one. Will that allow the Rays to pile on the runs early, or will putting a new face on the mound every few innings help arguably the worst team in baseball pull off the upset?

Kansas City Royals

Every once in awhile we see MLB team’s give their starting pitchers an extra day of rest in favor of what is known as a “bullpen game”. Sometimes that decision leads to a win, but if you’re the Kansas City Royals the bullpen is the last group that you want to have on the mound for all nine innings.

According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen has posted a 4.82 ERA in 2023, the third worst in the MLB in front of only the White Sox and Athletics. The group also owns a 4.34 xFIP, signs that this is an unreliable group on the mound.

Things have gotten much worse for the Kansas City bullpen in the month of June, seeing its ERA and xFIP spike to 5.28 and 4.45, respectively. Jose Cuas (3-0 record, 4.15 ERA) is the scheduled opener for today’s matchup, and he will be in charge of lowering those numbers and putting the Royals in position for success.

One thing Cuas does very well is strikeout opposing hitters, entering todays matchup with a 28.7% strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant. That puts Cuas in the top 20% of the majors, and he also ranks in the top 18% in Whiff rate, showing he has some good stuff on the mound.

However, if contact is made, Cuas and the Royals are often in trouble. Baseball Savant has Cuas listed with a 48.8% Hard Hit rate in 2023, up from 34.5% a season ago. That puts him in the bottom 6% of the majors, and his 15.9% Barrel rate shows that opposing hitters can size him up.

Tampa Bay Rays

It’s hard to find many things wrong with the Tampa Bay Rays, the team that owns the best record in baseball.

The Rays have gotten to this point in large part because of their consistency and depth throughout the batting order. Per TeamRankings, Tampa Bay ranks second in the majors in OPS at .806, and while at home that rises to .826.

Additionally, Fangraphs has Tampa Bay listed with a 128 wRC+ in 2023, the best mark in the MLB. Alongside that is a .307 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), further displaying just how lethal this team is on any given night from top to bottom.

The starting pitching staff has also been amongst the league’s best, and today’s starter, Shane McClanahan (11-1 record, 2.12 ERA), has been a big reason why.

McClanahan, perhaps the early AL Cy Young favorite, has done some unbelievable things on the mound this season. The 26-year-old owns a 27.2% strikeout rate and has a 4-seam fastball that is nearly touching 97 mph, per Baseball Savant. He also ranks in the top 9% of the majors in Whiff rate and owns a .226 xBA (expected batting average), showing that opposing hitters are, for the most part, having a tough time with McClanahan on the mound.

What’s the Play?

It is unclear who Kansas City is going to throw on the mound after Cuas. However, his vulnerability to hard contact alone could lead to plenty of runs early, and as a result we agree with our model that the over in this matchup is a 3-star play.

We can’t count out the Royals to get on the board this evening though. Although McClanahan has been great on the mound, many statistics show that the lefty has regressed from last season. His xERA has risen from 2.79 in 2022 to 3.62 this season, and just like Cuas he is vulnerable to hard contact. Baseball Savant has McClanahan ranked in the bottom 50% of the majors in Average Exit Velocity Allowed (89.1 mph) and Hard Hit rate (39.8%). We’ve also seen his strikeout rate fall 3.1% while his walk rate has risen 3.5%.

Perhaps more concerning is his 10.2% Barrel rate. That is up from 6.4% a season ago and is well above the MLB average of 6.8%.

It’s more likely we see the Royals completely blow up on the mound than McClanahan, but any runs we can get from Kansas City will be a bonus. Our model gives the over a 52.75% chance of hitting at 7.5 runs, a number we’re comfortable with taking.

3-star play: Over 7.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Atlanta Braves- 47-26 overall this season, 23-11 as the away team, 18-6 against division opponents (Play NL East rival Philadelphia this afternoon)

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 45-30 overall this season, 22-12 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 52-25 overall this season, 32-8 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 36-34-5 this season, 20-13-1 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 46-25-3 this season, 14-9-1 against division opponents (Play NL West rival San Francisco today)

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 42-31-4 this season, 26-13-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 45-30 overall this season, 11-5 as a road favorite

• Tampa Bay Rays- Run line is 43-34 overall this season, 23-16 as a home favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🌉 San Francisco extends win streak to 10 games. The San Francisco Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball at the moment, extending their win streak to 10 games following a 4-2 win over the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night. However, the win was aided by some controversy, marking the second night in a row that a call was overturned due to the catcher blocking the plate. In our opinion it looks to be the correct call, but it allowed the Giants to jump out to a 4-0 lead in the fifth inning, shifting momentum entirely in San Fran’s direction. Regardless, San Francisco is now just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West, and joins the Cincinnati Reds as the only teams in the midst of a double-digit win streak.

💪 Shohei Ohtani strikes out 12 in loss to Dodgers. The Los Angeles Angels lost the battle of LA for the second night in a row following a 2-0 loss to the Dodgers. Game 1 ended with the same score, but at least Shoehei Ohtani put on a show for all to enjoy. The two-way star was on the mound for 7.0 innings last night, striking out 12 batters and allowing just one earned run. Ohtani is now 6-3 on the season with a 3.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

🔍 Tyreek Hill under investigation for assault and battery. Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is under the Miami-Dade Police Department’s microscope following an incident where Hill reportedly hit an employee working at a Miami marina. Hill and the employee, who has not been named, allegedly got into a disagreement after the receiver and others tried boarding a boat without permission. At the time of writing, the victim has not formally pressed any charges. Any discipline given to Hill will be a big blow to the Dolphins offense, as Hill tallied 119 receptions and 1,710 yards last season.

❌ Penny Hardaway suspended three games for recruiting violations. University of Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway will serve a three-game suspension to begin the 2023-24 season due to recruiting violations. The violations stem from two in-home visits with a recruit that took place last season, two encounters that were deemed “impermissible” by the NCAA. It is unclear what Hardaway’s involvement was in the violations, but he was deemed to be the party responsible after failing to monitor his staff. Hardaway has been the head coach at Memphis since 2018, posting a 111-52 record in that time.

⛳️ Travelers Championship set to tee off later today. The PGA Tour is no stranger to a hectic travel schedule, and this week is no different. Just four days after the U.S. Open wrapped up in Los Angeles, PGA Tour golfers will make their way to Connecticut to compete in the Travelers Championship this weekend. The quick turnaround would normally keep some of the world’s best sidelined, but the $20 million purse has attracted eight of the top-10 golfers in the world to the event, including defending champion Xander Schauffele. Wyndham Clark, who just won the U.S. Open, will also compete in the event, looking for his third win of the season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Los Angeles Lakers made the NBA Finals six times during the 1960s, facing the Boston Celtics all each time in what was the beginning of an historic rivalry. How many championships did Los Angeles win in those six seasons?

Question #2- Longtime NFL coach Tony Dungy became the first African American head coach to win the Super Bowl, leading the Indianapolis Colts to the title in 2007. What team did the Colts beat in that game?

Question #3- Tons of pressure is put on closers in the MLB, oftentimes coming into the game with only a one-run lead. Some crack under that pressure, and others, like Eric Gagne, thrive when the lights are brightest. In fact, Gagne owns the MLB record for most consecutive saves in MLB history, even going the entire 2023 season without blowing a save. How may saves in a row did Gagne make?

Anyone know what has happened on June 22nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially in 1994.

On June 22nd…

1994- The Houston Rockets defeat the New York Knicks 90-84 to win the NBA Finals in seven games, Houston’s first Finals victory in franchise history. Both the Rockets and Knicks came into the postseason as the No.2 seed in their respective conference, with the Rockets posting a 58-24 record in the regular season compared to the Knicks’ 57-25 record. Hakeem Olajuwon was named Finals MVP, averaging 26.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 3.9 blocks per game in the series.

1994- Ken Griffey Jr. breaks Babe Ruth’s record for most home runs hit by the end of June with 31. The Kid would actually go on to hit one more dinger before the calendar flipped to July, and he would enter the All-Star break with 33 total home runs. Unfortunately, Griffey Jr.’s stellar season at the plate would be cut short as the MLB season ended prematurely due to the labor dispute. He still led the American League in home runs and All-Star voting that season even with the shortened season.

2016- NHL owners approve Las Vegas’ expansion bid my unanimous vote, clearing the way for Vegas to have a hockey team by the start of the 2017-2018 season. Of course, that team would go on to be the Las Vegas Golden Knights, who made the Stanley Cup Finals in their inaugural season. Vegas would lose that series to the Washington Capitals, but made up for it by defeating the Florida Panthers only nine days ago to secure the first Stanley Cup in franchise history.

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