In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-9

Over/Under Predictions: 8-10

Spread Predictions: 4-13-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 7-6-1

Puck Line Predictions: 8-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

A busy weekend of football concludes with 13 NFL games, with the first kicking off at 9:30 am Eastern. You can see all of our model predictions below.

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Model Predicts- Raiders ML, Under 41.5, Raiders -3

The New England Patriots will travel west to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders on Sunday.

New England enters this matchup in the midst of a brutal slump, one that has seen the Patriots score just three points over the last eight quarters. Las Vegas hasn’t been much better, but is coming off a win against Green Bay on Monday Night Football.

Nothing about this game is pretty on paper, but our model likes the Raiders to pick up the win here in a low scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

New England Patriots

• Offense has been horrible over last two weeks

  • 3 total points

  • Mac Jones- benched twice, 130 pass yards per game, 4 INTs, 2 fumbles

    • Could see Bailey Zappe or Malik Cunningham play today

  • Now ranked 32nd in EPA/play, 30th in success rate

• Defense has been decent, but is constantly in bad spot

  • 8th fewest yards allowed per game, 13th in EPA/play

  • Notable injuries- Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez

Las Vegas Raiders

• As dry of an offense as you can have

  • Have yet to score more than 18 points in a game this season

  • 71.4 rush yards per game

  • Jimmy Garoppolo- 66% completion %, 6 TDS to 7 INTs

• Defense has as many flaws as offense

  • 25th in EPA/rush, allow 4.3 yards per rush attempt

  • Have allowed 20.0 points and 307.7 yards per game over last three weeks

What’s the Play?

New England’s offense is in shambles at the moment, and things likely won’t get better today with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Damario Davis being out and three starting offensive lineman joining them on the injury report. However, Las Vegas is no offensive powerhouse either, so we agree with our model that this is a good spot for the under.

Bill Belichick has hinted all week that Malik Cunningham has a shot to play this week over Jones and Zappe, showing that this team is desperate for a spark. Even if that spark is found with Cunningham, we will likely see the Patriots keep the ball on the ground against a weak Raider run defense, which should milk the clock.

Either way, neither of these teams can score, and our model is predicting a total around 38 points. We’ll back the under.

The Play: Under 41.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Eagles- 5-0 overall this season, 10-0 as a road favorite over last two seasons

• Detroit Lions- 4-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Ravens- Under is 4-1 this season. Under is 2-0 in games played in London this season

• Chicago Bears- Over is 5-0 this season with average total of 54.40 points

• Las Vegas Raiders- Under is 4-1 this season, 2-0 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as an underdog

• Buffalo Bills- 3-2 ATS this season, 10-9-2 ATS as home favorite since 2021

For additional Week 3 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Scalies Media on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below⬇️

✈️Jets secondary in shambles ahead of matchup with Eagles. The New York Jets' defense has taken a significant hit as Pro Bowl cornerback Sauce Gardner has been ruled out due to a concussion. Gardner will join D.J. Reed on the sidelined list, who is also out with a concussion. This leaves the Jets' secondary in disarray as they prepare to face the formidable receiving duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who have combined for 831 receiving yards this season.

⚡️Ekeler back in lineup for MNF. The Los Angeles Chargers have removed running back Austin Ekeler from the injury report, and he's now cleared to play in their Monday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Ekeler had been sidelined since injuring his ankle in the season's opening game, where he rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown. His return comes at a crucial time for the Chargers, who recently lost wide receiver Mike Williams and are in need of an offensive spark.

After 14 games yesterday, the NHL only has two games lined up on Sunday. Our model’s predictions for both matchups are below.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

Model Predicts- Senators ML, OVER 6.5, Lightning +1.5

The Tampa Bay Lightning will continue their three-game road trip on Sunday with a stop in Ottawa to take on the Senators.

Tampa Bay came up short in Game 1 of the roadtrip, falling 6-4 to the Detroit Red Wings. Meanwhile, Ottawa is coming off a win against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday afternoon.

Tampa Bay’s situation between the pipes is less than ideal, which is why our model gives the Senators a slight edge in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Suspect defense through two games

  • Rank 29th in GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations with 4.47

  • xGA/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 3.97, which shows expectations are near reality

  • Rank in bottom 10 in high-danger chances against (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 situations

• Offense isn’t generating much pressure

  • 29.5 shots on goal per game, 8.30 high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5

• Staring goalie- Matt Tomkins

  • Has never started NHL game before

  • Surrendered 11 goals across three preseason games

Ottawa Senators

• Defense has looked vulnerable at times early on

  • Allowing 36.49 shots per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations

  • Rank in bottom eight in HDCA/60 in 5-on-5

• Showcasing depth in early season

  • 8 total goals across two games. Scored by 6 different players

• Starting goalie- Joonas Korpisalo

  • Surrendered 5 goals in first appearance of season

  • -1.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

  • Owns a 4.04 GAA and .875 Save % against Lightning in his career, per StatMuse

What’s the Play?

This is a back-to-back for both teams, so taking one of these times on the money line because of that angle is out the window. However, we feel that this is a great spot to back the over.

Neither one of these defenses has stepped up in the early going, leaving them vulnerable to high percentage scoring chances. That is a problem in any matchup, but especially when Korpisalo and a guy who has never played an NHL game are set to be in net.

The odds for the over are slowly getting worse and are up to -130 on some books, but we still feel fine with that as this is setting up to be a game that features two sluggish defenses and sub-par goaltenders.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Ottawa Senators- 1-1 overall this season, 1-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Lightning- Over was 40-33-9 last season, 2-0 this season with average total of 9.00

• Ottawa Senators- Over is 2-0 this season with average total of 7.50

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Carolina Hurricanes- Puck line is 1-1 overall this season, 0-1 as the away team

🚨 Matthews records second hat trick of season. Auston Matthews notched his second consecutive hat trick to kick off the season as the Toronto Maple Leafs secured a 7-4 victory against the Minnesota Wild on Saturday night. Matthews, who became the fifth player in NHL history to achieve back-to-back hat tricks at the start of a season, scored 2 goals in the first period and one in third. William Nylander contributed two goals and an assist, while Ilya Samsonov made 28 saves for Toronto.

🤕 Arvidsson likely undergoing another back surgery. Los Angeles Kings forward Viktor Arvidsson is facing the likelihood of another back surgery, according to the team's general manager, Rob Blake. If the surgery is necessary, it would result in an extended period of absence for Arvidsson, who had previously undergone back surgery in the spring of 2022. Arvidsson's unique contributions, characterized by his tenacity and ability to generate shots, make him a challenging player to replace for the Kings, who are already 0-2 this season.

Today marks the official start of the ALCS, which means the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will begin a seven-game series. Our model’s predictions for Game 1 can be found below.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, UNDER 9, Rangers +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will begin the ALCS on Sunday night at Minute Maid Park.

Texas enters tonight’s Battle for Texas scorching hot, winning all five of the postseason games it has played. Houston has been just as great this postseason, going 3-1 in their series with the Minnesota Twins.

Our model is leaning towards the Rangers tonight, but it sees more value on the under in this spot. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Perfect start to postseason

  • 5-0 overall, +20 run differential

• Offense has been main story

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (136), 2nd in BABIP (.349), and 3rd in OPS (.865), per FanGraphs

  • Seeing ball well- 12.4% walk rate to 23.4% strikeout rate

  • Showing off power- Hit 5 home runs in three ALDS games

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Montgomery

  • 3.27 ERA in postseason, 3.20 in regular season

  • Allowed 1 run in 6.2 innings against Astros in regular season

  • Often pitches to contact, but owns 37.9% hard hit rate and 6.2% walk rate

Houston Astros

• Took care of business against Minnesota

  • 3-1 overall, +7 run differential

• Power has been on full display in postseason

  • 10 home runs in four games. .818 OPS, and 123 wRC+ in that time

  • Not doing much damage outside of homes- .286 BABIP

• Starting pitcher- Justin Verlander

  • 6.0 innings, 4 hits, and 0 runs in lone postseason start

  • 0.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in last 19.0 innings

  • Struggles with hard contact (41.7% hard hit rate) and keeps ball in air (ranks in bottom 16% of MLB in ground ball rate)

What’s the Play?

Verlander’s inability to keep balls on the ground could pose a problem today against Texas, and that is a big reason why our model is leaning towards the Rangers to win today. However, we feel that this is still a good spot to back the under.

Both pitchers have been dominant on the mound recently. We’ve already discussed what Verlander has done over his last 19 innings, and Montgomery has had similar success with a 1.74 ERA over his last 31.0 innings. Opponents have averaged just 2.5 runs per game against the Rangers in that time.

This total has moved to 8.5 at some places, but our model still likes the under in that spot.

The Play: Under 9 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 90-72 in regular season, 5-0 in postseason

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Under is 43-38-4 as the away team this season (including postseason)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 30-15 overall as a road underdog this season (including postseason)

💪 Scherzer feels ready for ALCS. Max Scherzer participated in pitchers' fielding practice at Globe Life Field, hinting at a possible return to the mound after being sidelined since September 13. Scherzer, who joined the Rangers from the Mets during the trade deadline, expressed readiness to make a comeback, having undergone live batting practice and bullpen sessions to check all necessary boxes for his return. Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux is encouraged by Scherzer's progress, and if activated, Scherzer is expected to slot into the rotation behind Game 1 starter Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi.

🤕 Woodruff likely out for all of 2024 season. Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder, and it's likely that he will miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season. This injury had already forced the two-time All-Star to sit out the Brewers' National League Wild Card Series, where Milwaukee was swept by the Diamondbacks. Woodruff’s absence would be a huge blow to the Brewers, but Milwaukee is more focused on his long-term health than anything else.