In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 14-6

Over/Under Predictions: 12-6-2

Spread Predictions: 7-13

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-4

Over/Under Predictions: 3-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are 12 NFL games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 12 matchups. Those predictions can be found below.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Model Predicts- Eagles ML, UNDER 50.5, Rams +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles will travel to the West Coast this week for a matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

Philly enters this matchup a perfect 4-0, joining the San Francisco 49ers as the only undefeated teams left in the NFL. Meanwhile, Los Angeles sits at 2-2 through four weeks, with wins over the Seahawks and Colts.

Our model predicts that the Eagles will move to 5-0 after this matchup, but it still expects the Rams to keep things close. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Have some question on defensive side of ball

  • Great defensive line- rank in top 8 in pass rush and run stop win rate

  • Average in many areas though- 17th in yards per play (5.2), 19th in EPA/play

  • Secondary is allowing 260.8 pass yards per game- 8th most in NFL

• Offense has relied heavily on run game

  • Run ball on 49.82% of plays- 3rd highest in NFL

  • Second in rush yards per game (165.3)

• Jalen Hurts hasn’t looked like himself, but great offensive line has helped

  • Hurst- 17th in adjusted EPA/play, 22nd in success rate

  • Offensive line- Top 3 in pass and run block win rate

Los Angeles Rams

• Offense has held its ground through 4 weeks

  • Top 10 in EPA/play and success rate

  • Pass heavy offense

    • run ball on just 38% of plays, but still rank in top 12 in EPA/rush and rushing success rate

    • Stafford- willing to go deep (ranks 8th in air yards)

    • Get Cooper Kupp back this week

• Defense is great at stopping run

  • Rank 3rd in run stop win rate

    • Eagles have yet to face a defense that ranks high than 15th in that metric, with Tampa Bay and Washington ranking 25th and 28th, respectively

What’s the Play?

Although Philadelphia has yet to lose a game, the struggling secondary and moderate regression from Jalen Hurts is enough for us to back the Rams as a home underdog in this matchup.

Philadelphia has gashed almost every team on the ground this season, but stopping the run is what the Rams do best defensively. The addition of Cooper Kupp alongside Puka Nacua in the passing game suddenly makes the Rams a monster threat via the pass as well, positioning the Rams to stay competitive on both sides of the ball.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are just 4-5 against the spread as a road favorite over the last two seasons, so we’ll back the Rams to cover the spread here.

The Play: Rams +4.5

Money Line Trends💰

• Philadelphia Eagles- 4-0 overall this season, 9-0 as a road favorite over last two seasons

• Kansas City Chiefs- 3-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the away team

• Dallas Cowboys- 3-1 overall this season, 2-2 as a road underdog over last two seasons

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Miami Dolphins- Over is 3-1 this season, 1-0 as the home team

• New Orleans Saints- Under is 4-0 this season, highest win % in NFL

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Eagles- 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-5 ATS as a home favorite over last two seasons

• Los Angeles Rams- 3-0-1 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS as the home team

For additional Week 3 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Chuck’s Chat on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below⬇️

💰Jonathan Taylor reaches new deal with Colts. Indianapolis Colts' star running back Jonathan Taylor has secured a lucrative three-year contract extension worth $42 million, with $26.5 million guaranteed. Taylor, who had been dealing with a contract dispute with the Colts since the offseason, also returned from the physically unable to perform list, allowing him to make his season debut against the Tennessee Titans. This deal marks Taylor as the first running back to land a contract worth over $10 million annually since 2021.

🌍Von Miller to make season debut across the pond. Buffalo Bills pass-rusher Von Miller has been activated from the physically unable to perform list and is set to return in Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. In a corresponding move, cornerback Tre'Davious White, who suffered a season-ending torn right Achilles, was placed on injured reserve. Miller, who has been recovering from a major ACL injury, expressed confidence in his return and is expected to ease back into action as the Bills deal with multiple defensive end injuries.

🤕 Tee Higgins to miss time with rib injury. Cincinnati Bengals' star receiver Tee Higgins sustained a broken rib during their recent game against the Tennessee Titans, forcing him to be sidelined for Sunday's matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. This places more responsibility on Joe Burrow to rely on Ja'Marr Chase for a significant portion of the passing game, while Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas are expected to see increased playing time. Higgins, a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft, has accumulated 227 receptions for 3,157 yards and 21 touchdowns in his four-year career and joins several other injured players on the Bengals' roster.

There are only two MLB games scheduled to take place today. You can see our model’s predictions for those matchups below.

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros

Model Predicts- Twins ML, UNDER 8, Twins +1.5

The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros will square off in Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday afternoon.

Houston won Game 1 on Saturday by a score of 6-4, led by one home run from Jose Altuve and two homers from Yordan Alvarez. Justin Verlander also pitched a stellar game, allowing just four hits and zero earned runs in 6.0 innings of work.

Despite yesterday’s all-around performance from Houston, our model is leaning toward the Twins to win today’s matchup and tie the series. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Minnesota Twins

• Swept Toronto in Wild Card round, lost 6-4 yesterday

• Have been great the plate against left-handed pitching lately

  • Face left-hander Framber Valdez today

  • 135 wRC+ and .853 OPS since beginning on August

• Pablo López (11-8 record, 3.67 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Allowed one run in 5.1 innings in Wild Card

  • Generates tons of swings and misses- 30.3% Whiff rate and 29.2% strikeout rate

  • Owns 3.00 xERA, which shows that he has gotten slightly unlucky despite still pitching well

Houston Astros

• Didn’t look rusty at all after bye

  • Jose Altuve hit home run on first pitch of game

  • Yordan Alvarez had two home runs

• However, bullpen struggled and made things interesting the late stages of Game 1

  • Hector Neris- 0.2 innings, 3 hits, 4 earned runs

  • Has been common theme- Astros bullpen owns 4.30 FIP since August 1st

    • Ranked 17th in FIP (4.15) during regular season

• Framber Valdez (12-11 record, 3.46 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 8.90 ERA and 1,87 WHIP over last two starts

  • Struggling with control- 8 walks in last 9.1 innings

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- ranks in bottom 6% of MLB in hard hit rate average exit velocity allowed

What’s the Play?

The Astros took Game 1 due to having the better starting pitcher. However, that is not the case today, and we agree with our model that Minnesota can tie the series.

The Twins have been great against left-handed pitchers over the last two months, a great sign after going down 0-1. Additionally, Framber Valdez owns a 4.33 xERA compared to his 3.46 season ERA, showing that regression is on the horizon.

Minnesota has some big bats in the lineup, which makes it entirely possible that we see that regression today. We’ll take the Twins as an underdog here.

The Play: Twins ML (+115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 101-62 overall this season, 4-2 in last six games that Grayson Rodriguez is the starter

• Minnesota Twins- 89-76 overall this season, 4-3 against the Houston Astros

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 84-71-10 this season, 5th highest win % in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Minnesota Twins- Run line is 84-81 overall this season, 23-15 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Kershaw records only one out in blowout loss. In the first game of the NL Division Series, Dodgers star Clayton Kershaw had a difficult start, allowing six runs and only recording one out against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an 11-2 loss. Kershaw expressed disappointment and shock at this unexpected turn of events, as he had never pitched for less than one inning before in his career. Despite this setback, Kershaw vowed to bounce back and start Game 4 in Phoenix, acknowledging that his playoff performance has been inconsistent compared to his impressive regular-season record.

💪 Phillies take Game 1, spoil Atlanta’s home field advantage. Just as they did in the previous NLDS, the Phillies won Game 1 at Truist Park, defeating the Braves 3-0 and shifting the momentum in their favor. This victory negated Atlanta's home-field advantage, with both teams now having two more games in their home park, which benefits the Phillies by allowing them to use Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in three of the remaining four games. The Phillies have consistently won Game 1 in all six postseason rounds they've played over the past year, putting themselves in a commanding position in series where they were considered underdogs.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What two college football teams participate in the Red River Rivalry every season?

Question #2- Before his Hall of Fame NBA career, Reggie Miller played basketball at what university?

Question #3- Philadelphia Phillies legends Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were traded to what franchise before/during the 2015 season?

Anyone know what has happened on October 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 8th…

1982- The New Jersey Devils pick up their first NHL victory. The win came in a 3-2 victory over the New York Rangers, but was just the first of 17 wins that the Devils would record that season. New Jersey, formerly the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies, have won 1,613 games since being established 1974, the 17th most in NHL history.

2005- NHL legend Wayne Gretzky gets his first win as an NHL head coach. Gretzky picked up the win for the Phoenix Coyotes in a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Wild, the first of 38 wins for the season. Gretzky would coach the Coyotes for four seasons, posting a 143-161-24 record.

2018- Boston Red Sox player Brock Holt becomes the first player to hit for the cycle in MLB postseason history. The cycle came in a 16-1 blowout victory over the New York Yankees, who Boston later beat 3 games to 1 in the series. Boston would go on to win the World Series as well, defeating the Dodgers in five games

1. Oklahoma and Texas

2. UCLA

3. Los Angeles Dodgers