In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-8

Over/Under Predictions: 6-8

Run Line Predictions: 7-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Astros ML, UNDER 9.5, Phillies +1.5

The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, with the first pitch for Game 3 scheduled for 4:05 PM Eastern.

Philadelphia has possessed a firm grasp of this series thus far, taking home the win in each of the first two games. Those victories now put the Phillies in a tie for the best record in the National League at 78-54, while the Astros own a 70-62 record and still sit in first place in the American League West.

Sportsbooks expect a close game at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon, but our model projects the Astros to win today and sees plenty of value in backing Houston to do so. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Houston Astros

• Have yet to pick up win in series with Phillies

  • Lost 3-2 in extra innings in Game 1, 5-0 last night in Game 2

  • Now own 1-4 record in last five games

• Offense has been average during losing skid

  • Rank 15th in wRC+ (104), 17th in BABIP (.277), and 15th in OPS (.718) across last five games

  • Have only scored 15 runs in that span, but showing off power- Six home runs since Aug. 23rd is 5th most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Spencer Arrighetti

  • Due for positive regression- 4.94 ERA vs 3.92 xERA

  • Gives up very little contact- 27.5% Strikeout rate, 28.1% Whiff rate

Philadelphia Phillies

• Enter today on four-game win streak

  • Two wins over Royals, two wins over Astros

  • Own +23 run differential in that span

• Offense has finally found a spark after hitting a rough patch

  • Own 179 wRC+, .429 BABIP, and 1.004 OPS during four-game win streak

  • From Aug. 2-23: 98 wRC+, .313 BABIP, and .719 OPS

• Starting pitcher- Taijuan Walker

  • Due for regression- 6.26 ERA vs 6.70 xERA

  • Posted 8.10 ERA and 1.80 WHIP across last five starts

What’s the Play?

The Philadelphia Phillies offense is on fire right now, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back Houston on the money line.

Statistically speaking, Taijuan Walker has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season, and the underlying metrics show he is only going to get worse. The 0.44-run gap between his real ERA and xERA shows more runs are on the horizon while he is on the mound, and his 50.0% Hard Hit rate and 14.2% Barrel rate, both of which rank in the bottom 1% of MLB, are indications that opposing hitters are having no problems squaring him up.

Houston’s offense has been shut down by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola thus far, but Walker is nowhere close to being the same threat on the mound. It’s likely the Astros pour on the runs this afternoon, so we will back Houston on the money line here.

The Play: Astros ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 70-62 overall this season, 35-33 as the away team

• Detroit Tigers- 67-66 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games and 5-0 in last five games

• San Diego Padres- 76-58 overall this season, 39-26 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 76-52-4 this season, 39-26-1 as the away team

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 72-59-3 this season, 29-15 vs division opponents (Play AL East rival Boston today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 74-59 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (55.6%)

👑 Royals catch Guardians in AL Central standings. After four months, the Royals have caught up to the Guardians, tying for first place in the AL Central after a 6-1 victory on Tuesday night. Kansas City, who were seven games behind at the All-Star break, has surged with a 23-13 record since then, while Cleveland has struggled, losing nine of their last twelve games. Despite a lengthy rain delay and some scares, including an injury to Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals’ strong bullpen and key contributions from players like Paul DeJong have positioned them in a tight division race.

🤕 Glasnow expected to spend more time on IL. Tyler Glasnow's recovery from right elbow tendinitis is progressing more slowly than expected, and he could be sidelined until mid-September, according to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Glasnow, who has only been able to play catch since his injury in mid-August, may require a longer build-up and minor-league rehab starts before rejoining the rotation. This setback disrupts what had been Glasnow's best season, during which he led the National League in WHIP and set career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Cleveland Cavaliers selected what shooting guard out of Syracuse with the No.4 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft?

Question #2- All-Pro linebacker Von MIller has played for three teams in his NFL career. Two of those teams are the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills, but what team is the third?

Question #3- Who led the MLB in on base percentage during the 2006 season, posting a .454 OBP?

Anyone know what has happened on August 28th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 28th…

1992- The Milwaukee Brewers defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 22-2. Milwaukee came out of the gates hot by scoring two runs in the first inning, which gave the team enough momentum to build a 13-1 lead after four innings. The Brewers also recorded 31 hits in the game, which at the time was a new MLB record.

2021- Former Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani records a stolen base in a 10-2 win over the San Diego Padres. The stolen base gave Ohtani 20 total for the season, making him the first player in Angels history to record 40 home runs and 20 steals in a season. Ohtani would finish the 2021 season with 46 home runs and 26 stolen bases, a performance good enough to win him the AL MVP Award.

2022- Rory McIlroy wins the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. McIlroy defeated runner-ups Scottie Scheffler and Sung Jae Im by one stroke, shooting 21-under par for the tournament. It was the third time that McIlroy won the FedEx Cup in his career, making him the first three-time winner ever.

1. Dion Waiters

2. Los Angeles Rams

3. Barry Bonds