In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-5

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6

Spread Predictions: 4-8-2

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

Money Line Predictions: 5-1

Over/Under Predictions: 3-3

Spread Predictions: 3-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 2-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3

Puck Line Predictions: 2-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions. Our model’s predictions for Monday Night Football can be found below.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions

Model Predicts- Lions ML, UNDER 46.5, Raiders +7.5

The Las Vegas Raiders and Detroit Lions are set to clash in what is already the eighth edition of Monday Night Football this season.

Detroit enters this matchup coming off a brutal loss to the Baltimore Ravens, surrendering 38 points while scoring just six of their own. However, the Lions still own a 5-2 record and are in first in the NFC North, while Las Vegas enters tonight at 3-4.

Our model shows that there is quite a large skill gap between these two squads, but it is showing far more value on the under here. Let’s take a look at why our model is forecasting a low-scoring contest.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Scoring has been a struggle on the road

  • Have not surpassed 17 points in any of four road games

  • 1-3 on the road this season, with only win coming in Week 1 at Denver

• Stale offense has been holding team back

  • Average 4.7 yards per play- 7th fewest in NFL

  • Run game is nowhere to be found- rank 32nd in rush yards per game with 68.6

  • 35% conversion rate on 3rd down- 25th in NFL

• Jimmy Garoppolo back as starter

  • Missed last week with back injury

  • Ranks 15th in EPA/play, 19th in CPOE

Detroit Lions

• Obliterated last week in Baltimore

  • Lost 38-6. Put up 337 yards to Baltimore’s 503

  • Jared Goff- 33/53 passing, 1 interception, 5.4 yards per pass attempt

• Still considered to be one of best offenses in league, especially at home

  • Rank 7th in yards per play (5.6). Rises to 6.1 when playing at home

  • Rank inside top-10 in pass yards (258.6) and rush yards (118.4) per game

  • +8.7 scoring margin at home. -0.8 scoring margin on road

• Own slightly above average defense

  • 14th in EPA/play, 13th in opponent success rate

What’s the Play?

As we all know, Jared Goff is not an outdoor cat. We’ve seen that the last two weeks, as Detroit has scored just 26 total points while playing in Tampa Bay and Baltimore. However, despite returning home tonight in an easy matchup (on paper), things may not get much easier, and we agree with our model that this will be a low-scoring contest.

Detroit is riddled with injuries on offense at the moment. O-linemen Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow will both likely be out tonight, and backup Halapoulivaati Vatai is listed as questionable. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also listed as questionable, and David Montgomery will not suit up, so several key players will be glued to the bench tonight.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas is fully healthy on offense, but a potentially rusty Jimmy G combined with an already poor offense is not a recipe for points. We’ll take the under here.

The Play: Under 46.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Lions- 5-2 overall this season, 2-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Las Vegas Raiders- Under is 5-2 this season, 2-2 on the road with average total of 41.0

Spread Trends ➕➖

• None applicable to today’s model predictions

🤕 Kirk Cousins likely done for season after achilles injury. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins suffered an injury during the team's victory over the Green Bay Packers. An MRI is expected to confirm the extent of the injury, but it is feared to be Cousins’ achilles, which would end his season. Cousins had an impressive performance before the injury, recording 274 yards and two touchdowns before being replaced by Jaren Hall.

🐎 Broncos snap losing streak to Chiefs. The Denver Broncos secured a 24-9 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, ending their 16-game losing streak against their rivals. Russell Wilson, despite a modest passing performance, capitalized on Chiefs' mistakes, throwing three touchdown passes. The Broncos' success was bolstered by a strong ground game, rushing for 153 yards as a team, while their defense forced five turnovers in what was the team’s second consecutive win.

There are 11 NBA games scheduled to take place today, giving us a wide range of options to start the week. Our model’s predictions for all matchups are below.

Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Lakers ML, OVER 220.5, Magic +2.5

The Orlando Magic will begin a three-game road trip on Monday, with the first stop coming in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers.

Orlando is a perfect 2-0 to begin the 2023-24 season, picking up wins against the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Meanwhile, L.A. sits at 1-2 after suffering an overtime loss to the Sacramento Kings last night.

This is a back-to-back for the Lakers, and as a result our model only projects the Lake Show to win by about one point. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Orlando Magic

• Have 2nd best Net Rating (+17.7) through two games

  • 113.5 Offensive Rating, 95.8 Defensive Rating

• Have a defensive presence at every spot on the floor

  • Holding opponents to 35.0 points per game in the paint, per TeamRankings

  • Opponents shooting 40.1% overall and 31.8% from three

• Have great scoring depth

  • Only have three guys averaging double-digit points, but six additional players averaging at least 7.0 points per game

Los Angeles Lakers

• Coming off hard-fought OT loss last night

  • Lost 132-127 against Sacramento

  • +11 point differential in second half

• Poor start to season on offensive end

  • Own 106.4 Offensive Rating. Down from 113.9 a season ago

  • Shooting 29.1% from three as a team

• Have yet to get much production from guards

  • Austin Reaves- 9.7 ppg on 30% shooting

  • D’Angelo Russell leads all guards in ppg (14.0)

What’s the Play?

We’ll see tonight if the Lakers are in shape to pull off a back-to-back. However, we don’t think that will be the case, and prefer to take Orlando’s spread here.

The Magic have enough firepower at the top of the lineup with Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Cole Anthony to create separation tonight, especially when you consider how bad L.A.’s guard play has been. Orlando also has far more scoring depth, which will go a long way against a likely fatigued Lakers team.

The Play: Magic +2.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Dallas Mavericks- 2-0 overall this season, +6.0 average win margin

• Denver Nuggets- 3-0 overall this season, 34-7 as the home team last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Indiana Pacers- Over is 2-0 this season with average total of 250.5

• Golden State Warriors- Under is 3-0 this season with average total of 216.33

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Orlando Magic- 2-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 38-25-2 ATS last season as an underdog

📚 Klay Thompson ascends further in record books. Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson surpassed Jamal Crawford to claim the 10th spot on the all-time list of made 3-pointers on Sunday night. Thompson's achievement, his 2,222nd career 3-pointer, harked back to his classic style of shooting, which includes not dribbling and shooting from well behind the arc. The achievement is a major mark in Thompson’s quest for history, and he now sets his sights on passing players like LeBron James, Jason Terry, and Vince Carter.

👀 Harden likely back in fold for 76ers this week. James Harden took part in the Philadelphia 76ers' pregame walkthrough and video session before their home opener against the Portland Trail Blazers, with plans for him to join Tuesday's practice. 76ers head coach Nick Nurse confirmed that Harden had been making progress in his conditioning and ramp-up process, which comes after disappearing from the team for nearly two weeks. Although Harden was present on the bench during the game, his playing status remains uncertain due to the ongoing saga surrounding his participation with the team this season.

Game 3 of the World Series will take place today, with both teams traveling back to Arizona. Our model’s predictions for Game 3 can be found below.

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, UNDER 9, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks will take the World Series to Phoenix, Arizona on Monday.

Both teams enter Game 3 of the series with one win under their belt. Texas obtained their win via a walk-off homer in the 11th inning of Game 1, while Merrill Kelly and the rest of the Diamondbacks dominated Game 2 on their way to a 9-1 win.

The odds have shifted significantly now that the Diamondbacks are the home team, but our model gives the Rangers their largest edge of the series. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Poor offensive numbers through two World Series games

  • 81 wRC+ and .217 BABIP, per FanGraphs

  • 13.6% walk rate shows plate discipline, which is huge advantage

• Have crushed teams while on road in postseason

  • Perfect 8-0 on road

  • +31 run differential in those eight games

• Starting pitcher- Max Scherzer

  • 9.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in postseason

  • 33.7% ground ball rate and 8.6% barrel rate are biggest flaws

  • Still carrying 3.77 ERA against 3.28 xERA, so improvement is on its way

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Have lost home run power, but still making high rate of contact

  • Had 13 homers in first five postseason games. Only 7 homers in last nine games

  • BABIP of .326 since start of NLCS

  • 24.7% strikeout rate since Game 1 of NLCS is a concern, but that dropped to 18.4% in Games 1 and 2 of World Series

• Starting pitcher- Brandon Pfaadt

  • 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in postseason

  • Ranks in bottom 8% of MLB in ground ball rate and barrel rate

  • 44.0% hard hit rate and 90.1 mph average exit velocity shows he is vulnerable to hard contact

What’s the Play?

Brandon Pfaadt is a major reason why Arizona finds itself in the World Series, and his emergence on the mound shouldn’t be ignored. However, we agree with our model that the Rangers will take Game 3.

Texas has been unbelievable on the road in the postseason, and we feel Pfaadt’s postseason performance should be taken with a grain of salt. This is a guy that surrendered 2.06 homers per nine innings in the regular season, and is still carrying a poor 35.9% ground ball rate in the postseason, the worst rate of any Dbacks pitcher to pitch at least 10.0 innings in the postseason. He was also lit up by Texas in his MLB debut, allowing seven runs.

Scherzer hasn’t been great either, but once again his struggles are over a span of 6.2 innings so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Pfaadt’s home run vulnerability is likely the difference maker here, so we’ll take the Rangers on the road.

The Play: Rangers ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 10-4 overall in postseason, 8-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Under is 7-7 this season, 3-1 at home with average total of 6.75

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 11-3 in postseason

📝 Ketel Marte continues to write history. Ketel Marte set a new postseason hitting streak record by getting a hit in his 18th consecutive game in Game 2 of the World Series. Marte's standout moment came in the eighth inning when he delivered a two-run single, helping Arizona secure a 7-1 lead. He currently leads the team with a .333 batting average and a .910 OPS for this postseason, and his milestone enabled him to surpass legends like Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, and Hank Bauer.

🏆 John Middleton refuses to break World Series promise to Bryce Harper. Despite the Philadelphia Phillies' loss in the NLCS, team owner John Middleton pledged to fulfill his promise of a World Series win to superstar Bryce Harper. Middleton emphasized his commitment to Harper, highlighting the slugger's dedication and deep connection to the city. Harper's influence extends beyond the field, as he assists in recruiting players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos, and Middleton remains motivated by the trust and mutual commitment between him and Harper in their pursuit of a championship.