In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Braves ML, UNDER 8.5, Tigers +1.5

The Detroit Tigers will continue their six-game road trip on Tuesday, taking on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of a three-game series.

Atlanta got the better of Detroit on Monday, taking down the Tigers 2-1 thanks to some late-game heroics from Forrest Wall and Ozzie Albies. The victory moved the Braves record to 39-31, good enough for second place in the NL East, while the loss was the second straight for the Tigers and now places Detroit in fourth in the AL Central at 34-38.

Our model makes the Braves a much shorter favorite than most sportsbooks, meaning there may be some value on the Tigers, but we are more focused on the total in tonight’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Detroit Tigers

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Astros, one loss to Braves

  • Outscored 6-2 in that stretch. Now just 2-5 in last seven games

• Offense has been one of worst in MLB in June

  • Rank 27th in wRC+ (82), 29th in BABIP (.267), and 25th in OPS (.637) since June 1st

  • Have scored 62 runs across 15 games. Rank bottom 10 in strikeout rate (24.0%) as well

• Starting pitcher- Casey Mize

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.43 ERA vs 4.29 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 10% of MLB in Whiff rate (19.2%) and Strikeout rate (15.0%) this season

Atlanta Braves

• Picked up win in Game 1 of series on Monday

  • Won game 2-1. Held scoreless until 7th inning

  • Fourth win in last five games

• Offensive production is at all-time low despite recent wins

  • Rank 20th in wRC+ (96), 26th in BABIP (.272), and 17th in OPS (.699) since June 1st

  • .290 on base % this month ranks 25th. Mostly due to low walk rate (6.3%)

• Starting pitcher- Spencer Schwellenbach

  • Due for positive regression- 6.32 ERA vs 3.87 xERA

  • Vulnerable to some hard contact (44.4% Hard Hit rate), but great at avoiding barrels (2.0% Barrel rate)

What’s the Play?

Both of today’s starting pitchers have some flaws on the mound, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the under at even money.

Casey Mize is oftentimes pitching to contact, but the good news is that most of that contact results in ground balls, as he ranks in the top 25% of MLB in ground ball rate this season. His 6.6% walk rate also places him near the top 25% of the majors, which bodes well for his chances tonight against a Braves team that has struggled to get on base this month via the walk and has struggled overall offensively.

Additionally, Schwellenbach’s surface-level numbers aren’t appealing, but in reality he has only had one bad start this season, and his 3.87 xERA shows that better days are ahead on the mound.

Both Detroit and Atlanta have been poor at the plate this month, while Mize’s command and high ground ball rate and Schwellenbach’s looming positive regression hint at a low-scoring contest. As a result, we’ll take the under at its current total of 8.5.

The Play: Under 8.5 (+100)

Want to back today’s best bet? You can do so on FanDuel Sportsbook! Click HERE to sign up for FanDuel today and get bonus offers & boosted odds!

Money Line Trends 💰

• Washington Nationals- 35-36 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games, and 8-2 in last 10 games

• Baltimore Orioles- 47-24 overall this season, 22-10 as the away team, and 9-4 as an underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 40-27-3 this season, 20-15 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 38-30-4 this season, 18-15-2 as the favorite

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 44-27 this season, 11-2 as an underdog

💪 Gerrit Cole to make season debut Wednesday vs Orioles. Gerrit Cole is set to return for the New York Yankees, starting Wednesday's game against the Baltimore Orioles, as announced by manager Aaron Boone. Cole, who has been recovering from an elbow issue, performed well during his rehab assignment with a 0.73 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. Despite his absence, the Yankees' rotation has maintained an impressive MLB-leading 2.90 ERA, and they currently lead the AL East by 1 1/2 games over the Orioles.

👀 Scherzer, deGrom slowly making their way back to Rangers lineup. Jacob deGrom threw off a mound for the first time since his reconstructive elbow surgery, pitching 15 fastballs and expressing optimism about his progress. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer could make his season debut for the Texas Rangers soon, having pitched 4 2/3 innings in a recent rehab start. Scherzer, traded from the Mets last summer, is expected to return to the major leagues after recovering from back surgery and right thumb soreness.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only five PGA Tour players have ever won the Career Grand Slam, winning all four majors as least once. Four of those players are Jack Niklaus, Tiger Woods, Gene Sarazen, and Ben Hogan, but who is the fifth?

Question #2- The 2018 Super Bowl was won by the Philadelphia Eagles, defeating the New England Patriots 41-33. Despite the loss, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady set the Super Bowl record for passing yards. How many yards did Brady throw for in the game?

Question #3- The triple-double is becoming a more common occurrence throughout the NBA, but the quadruple-double has remained an elusive stat line. In fact, only four players in NBA history have recorded a quadruple-double, three of which were Nate Thurmond, Alvin Robertson, and Hakeem Olajuwon. Who is the fourth?

Anyone know what has happened on June 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 18th…

1953- The Boston Red Sox score 17 runs in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers, the most runs scored in a single inning in MLB history. Prior to the seventh inning beginning the score was 5-3, but Detroit’s relievers combined to surrender 11 singles, two doubles, one home run, and five walks in the inning. Boston would go on to win the game 23-3 after defeating Detroit 17-1 the day prior.

1986- California Angels pitcher Don Sutton becomes the 19th pitcher to win 300 games in a 5-1 win over the Texas Rangers. The 43-year-old pitched a gem to reach the milestone, surrendering just three hits and shutting Texas out through seven innings. Sutton would go on to win 324 games in his career, 58 of which were shutouts, which puts him in a tie with Nolan Ryan for 14th on the all-time list.

2017- Brooks Koepka wins the U.S. Open with a 16-under-par final score, his first major title of his career. Kopeka ended the tournament four strokes ahead of the rest of the field, tying Rory McIlroy for the lowest score in U.S. Open history. Koepka has won four additional majors since his first victory, most recently winning the PGA Championship in 2023.

1. Gary Player

2. 505

3. David Robinson