In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-4

Over/Under Predictions: 5-10

Run Line Predictions: 6-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, UNDER 8, Orioles +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will continue their four-game series on Wednesday, with Game 3 scheduled to take place at 7:07 PM Eastern.

Baltimore has taken firm control of the series thus far, taking down Toronto in Games 1 and 2. Those victories now give the Orioles a 3-1 record against the Blue Jays this season and push their season record to 39-20, while the Blue Jays have fallen to 28-32 and into last place in the AL East division.

The gap in the standings between these AL East rivals is quite significant, and our model projects that gap to get wider today as it believes Baltimore will win this matchup despite being an underdog. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• 2-0 in current series with Toronto

  • Outscored Blue Jays 7-2 in Game 1, 10-1 in Game 2

  • Own 159 wRC+ and have hit seven homers across those two contests (FanGraphs)

• Have now won 10 of last 12 games after last night’s win

  • Batting .282 as team in that stretch (1st in MLB)

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (138), 5th in BABIP (.316), and 1st in OPS (.833)

• Starting pitcher- Albert Suarez

  • Due for some regression, but owns solid numbers- 1.57 ERA vs 3.01 xERA

  • Has posted career bests in Barrel rate (4.2%) and xBA (.220) this season

Toronto Blue Jays

• Ended month of May hot, but cooled off in June

  • 4-0 record in final four games of May. 1-3 record in first four games of June

  • Outscored 29-9 by opponents since June 1st

• Getting low production at plate on mound this month

  • Hitters- 75 wRC+ (23rd), .296 BABIP (15th), 19.2% strikeout rate (22nd)

  • Pitchers- 6.00 ERA (25th), 5.25 FIP (26th), and 35.6% ground ball rate (26th)

• Starting pitcher- Jose Berrios

  • Due for some regression- 2.79 ERA vs 4.12 xERA

  • Surrendering lots of contact- Ranks in bottom 20% of MLB in Whiff rate (21.1%) and Hard Hit rate (44.3%)

What’s the Play?

The Orioles have shifted to a slight underdog on most sportsbooks for tonight’s game, but our model still views Baltimore as a favorite and believes this is a good spot to back the Orioles as an outright winner.

Berrios’ surface-level numbers have been solid this season, but underlying metrics show that regression is on the way as he has not performed nearly as well on the mound as in years past. Berrios has seen his strikeout rate decline 3.6% from a season ago, while his Hard Hit rate has spiked 8.5% and is the highest it has ever been in his career. His susceptibility to hard contact can pose problems at any moment, and it could becomes even more of an issue against a red hot Orioles offense.

Albert Suarez is due to see regression as well, but his 3.01 xERA is still an excellent number and doesn’t indicate he is due to blow up on the mound. We like his chances against a struggling Blue Jays offense.

Nothing is quite clicking for the Blue Jays right now, while nearly everything is going the Orioles’ way. As a result, we’ll back Baltimore as an underdog in this spot.

The Play: Orioles ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 43-19 overall this season, 26-9 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- 40-20 overall this season, 11-5 against division teams (Play AL Central rival Kansas City today)

• Baltimore Orioles- 39-20 overall this season, 18-8 as the away team, and 3-1 against the Blue Jays

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Under is 31-25-5 this season, 17-11-3 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- Over is 30-26-4 this season, 15-11-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 36-24 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (60.0%)

❌ Marcano given lifetime ban from MLB. San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano received a lifetime ban from MLB for violating the league's gambling policy, including placing 387 baseball bets, with 231 on MLB games, and betting over $150,000 in total. Additionally, Oakland Athletics reliever Michael Kelly and minor leaguers Jay Groome, José Rodríguez, and Andrew Saalfrank were suspended for one year each for betting on MLB games, though none participated in the games they wagered on. Marcano's bets included 25 on the Pittsburgh Pirates, his former team, but he never played in those games due to a season-ending injury in 2023.

🚔 Shohei Ohtani’s former interpreter pleads guilty in betting scandal. Ippei Mizuhara, former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani, pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud, admitting to stealing nearly $17 million from Ohtani to cover his gambling debts. Exploiting his close relationship with Ohtani, Mizuhara impersonated him to access his bank account over several years, ultimately wiring funds to cover his bets without Ohtani's knowledge. Mizuhara faces a possible maximum of 33 years in federal prison and must pay restitution, with his sentencing scheduled for October 25.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- MLB pitcher Cal Quantrill has played on three teams in his career: The Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, and what other franchise?

Question #2- The Anaheim Ducks defeated what Eastern Conference team in five games to win the 2007 Stanley Cup Finals?

Question #3- What active NBA player currently ranks third on the NBA’s all-time assists list?

Anyone know what has happened on June 5th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 5th…

1977- The 31st NBA Championship is contested between the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers. Portland took home the title that year, taking down Julius Erving and the rest of his 76ers squad in six games. Bill Walton, who led the Trail Blazers to a 49-33 record during the regular season, was named Finals MVP.

1981- MLB legend Nolan Ryan sets the MLB’s all-time walk record. Ryan set the record in a win over the New York Mets, a game in which he pitched all nine innings and allowed two walks. Ryan would go on to throw 2,795 walks in his career, which is the most in MLB history by 962.

1983- Former NFL wide receiver Marques Colston is born in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Colston stormed on to the football scene during his time at Susquehanna Township High School, and would eventually go on to play college football at Hofstra. Colston would later be selected in the seventh round of the 2006 NFL Draft by the New Orleans Saints, the team he would play for his entire 10-year career.

1. San Diego Padres

2. Ottawa Senators

3. Chris Paul