In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were no model predictions yesterday, April 7, 2024.

13 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 13 matchups can be found below.

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, UNDER 8.5, Tigers +1.5

The Detroit Tigers will begin a short two-game road trip on Monday, making the journey to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to take on the Pirates.

Detroit has seen mixed results early on in 2024, beginning the season with a 5-0 record but then losing three of the next four games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has been consistently in the win column, winning eight of it first ten games, including two straight to win its weekend series with the Baltimore Orioles.

Despite the winning record, Detroit has looked far from good, yet our model gives the Tigers a slight edge in today’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Detroit Tigers

• Lost most recent series to Oakland Athletics

  • Won game one, but lost games two and three

  • Outscored 15-6 in series

• Struggles at the plate are the biggest concern early on

  • Rank 23rd in wRC+ (82), 27th in BABIP (.247)

  • Have scored just 20 runs prior to extra innings. 28.57% of runs scored have come after 9th inning

• Starting pitcher- Reese Olson

  • Allowed three hits, two walks, and zero runs across 5.2 innings in first start of season

  • Vulnerable to hard contact last season (22nd percentile in Hard Hit Rate), but ranked in top 40% in Whiff and Chase Rate

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Enter today off series win over Orioles

  • Lost game one, but won games two and three

  • -1 run differential in series, but +17 for season

• Bullpen has been key piece to hot start

  • Pittsburgh relievers own 3.13 ERA and 2.88 FIP (FanGraphs)

  • Rank inside top-three in ground ball rate (52.2%), in top-ten in BABIP (.253)

• Starting pitcher- Mitch Keller

  • Has struggled early on- allowed 15 hits and eight earned runs across 11.0 innings this season

  • Owns 14.8% strikeout rate this season- down from 25.5% a season ago

What’s the Play?

The battle on the mound today is a difficult one to read, but we agree with our model that the under is a solid play here at its current total of 8.5.

Keller has been hit around this season, but the truth is that this Tigers offense is one of the worst in the league. Many of Detroit’s numbers are being boosted because of success in extra innings, but the Tigers have been so bad at the plate that the team has been held to one run or less in the first nine innings of the game in four of the last six contests. Detroit is in a massive slump at the plate, and that gives Keller a chance to get back on track.

Additionally, both bullpens have been elite early on. We’ve already discussed Pittsburgh’s success out of the pen, but Detroit’s has been far greater as Tigers relievers own a 1.11 ERA and .182 BABIP this season. Even if Olson and Keller get into trouble, both have sufficient arms behind them to clean things up, which should lead to a low-scoring contest.

The Play: Under 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 4-5 overall this season, 2-1 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 5-5 overall this season, 2-0 in last two games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Tigers- Under is 5-3-1 this season, 4-2 as the away team

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 6-3 this season, 2-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 7-3 this season, 4-1 as a favorite

🐠 Marlins avoid 0-10 start with win over Cardinals. The Miami Marlins broke their nine-game losing streak at the start of the season by defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 10-3 thanks to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Nick Gordon hitting three-run homers in a six-run first inning. Manager Skip Schumaker expressed his relief for the team's win, highlighting the players' ability to smile again after a challenging period. Max Meyer secured his first major league win, pitching six innings with one run and three hits, contributing significantly to the Marlins' victory and earning praise from Schumaker for his outstanding performance.

💪 Sonny Gray to make first start of season on Tuesday vs Phillies. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray will have his team debut on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies, marking his first appearance since straining his right hamstring in spring training. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol expressed confidence in Gray's readiness, noting his direct and honest approach. Gray, who signed a three-year, $75-million contract with the Cardinals in November, will have a pitch count of around 65 for his debut game.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three quarterbacks were selected within the top-eight picks of the 2012 NFL Draft- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and what other player?

Question #2- What former NBA player had the following career path: Golden State Warriors (2005-12), Milwaukee Bucks (2012-13), Dallas Mavericks (2013-15), Indiana Pacers (2015-17)?

Question #3- Who led the MLB in stolen bases last season, swiping 66 bags?

Anyone know what has happened on April 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 8th…

1984- Detroit Tigers pitcher Jack Morris throws a no-hitter against the Chicago White Sox. The performance came on a cold day in Detroit, one in which saw Morris strikeout eight batters and walk six over 120 pitches. Morris became the fourth Tigers pitcher to throw a no-hitter.

2000- The first MLB game is played at Enron Field in Houston, Texas. The game was contested between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros, with the Phillies emerging victorious after outscoring Houston four to one. Scott Rolen broke the game open for Philly, hitting the first home run in the stadium’s history.

2019- The 38th NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship is contested between Baylor and Notre Dame. The Bears took home the win in dramatic fashion, beating the Fighting Irish by a final score of 82-81. Baylor point guard Chloe Jackson was the star of the show, leading the way with 26 points in the victory.

1. Ryan Tannehill

2. Monta Ellis

3. Ronald Acuna Jr.