In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3

Run Line Predictions: 2-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

🤕 Mike Williams out for remainder of season. Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams will miss the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear sustained in their 28-24 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. While Williams is expected to recover in time for training camp next season, this setback follows his return from a back fracture earlier this year. Williams, a key target for the Chargers since entering the league in 2017, had been having an impressive game against the Vikings with seven catches for 121 yards and one touchdown before his injury.

👀 Jamal Adams set to return for MNF. Seattle Seahawks safety Jamal Adams is set to make his 2023 season debut in the upcoming Monday night game against the New York Giants, according to coach Pete Carroll. Adams, who has been sidelined since tearing his quad tendon in Week 1 of the previous season, has been preparing for his return and is eager to play at MetLife Stadium, where he previously played for the New York Jets. The Seahawks, who have faced numerous injuries to key players, are also hopeful for the return of several other injured players in the upcoming week.

🐅 Bengals avoid dreaded 0-3 start, beat Rams by three. The Cincinnati Bengals secured their first victory of the 2023 NFL season with a 19-16 win over the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football." While it wasn't a flawless performance, the Bengals managed to keep the Rams out of the end zone for nearly the entire game, with Joe Burrow and the offense doing just enough to complement their strong defense. Notably, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase had a breakout game, tallying 141 receiving yards, and the Bengals' resilience in this win offered hope for their Super Bowl aspirations.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 8, Guardians +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians will square off in Game 1 of a short two-game series on Tuesday evening.

Cincinnati enters this one 2.5-games back of a wild card spot in the National League, with their window for the postseason slowly closing as only five games remain. Meanwhile, Cleveland has already been eliminated from playoff contention and no longer has much to fight to for.

The Reds have been the better of the two teams all season long, and our model likes them to pick up another win today and keep their postseason hopes alive. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds

• Have hit a bump in the road at worst possible time

  • 14-16 over last 30 games, 4-6 in last ten, and 1-4 in last five

• In middle of pack at plate in September

  • Rank 14th in wRC+ (105), 13th in BABIP (.298), and 11th in OPS (.770), per FanGraphs

  • On bright side, own 10.1% Walk rate, which has led to sixth-highest on base % (.342) since September 1st

• 1-4 in last 5 games, but offense hasn’t seen much decline

  • 102 wRC+ and .286 BABIP

  • Walk rate has risen to 12.4%, but Strikeout rate sits at 25.7%

• Hunter Greene (4-6 record, 4.24 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Got off to slow start after returning from injury, but has found a groove

  • 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in last 24.0 innings

  • Elite strikeout pitcher- 31.5% Strikeout rate ranks in top 6% of majors

  • Struggles with control- 10.1% Walk rate

  • 3.62 xERA indicates improvement is on horizon

Cleveland Guardians

• Eliminated from playoff contention, likely from bats going cold this month

  • Own 95 wRC+, .297 BABIP, and .703 OPS since September 1st

  • Low strikeout rate (17.4%), but hasn’t translated to getting on base (.326 on base%) or runs being scored (4.22 runs per game)

• Struggling at plate even move over last seven games

  • wRC+ has fallen to 84 and BABIP to .280

• Lucas Giolito (8-14 record, 4.60 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 6.52 ERA over last four starts

  • Vulnerable to home runs- Allowed seven home runs over last 22.1 innings. 2.85 homers per nine innings in those games

  • Ranks in bottom 17% of MLB in Barrel rate (10.8%) and ground ball rate (36.3%)

What’s the Play?

The Cleveland Guardians have put things into cruise control now that nothing is on the line, and when you combine that with having Giolito on the mound, we agree with our model that Cincinnati can walk away victorious this evening.

Giolito simply can’t keep balls in the park, which is nothing new for him. He has surrendered 2.82 home runs per nine innings since joining the Guardians, which has spiked his ERA to 5.64 in that time. His ground ball rate has also cratered to 32.1%, so we believe we will see even more homers hit today.

The Reds were already the better team and have the better pitcher today. Our model believes Cincinnati should be favored with odds around -125, so we’ll take them at -110.

The Play: Reds ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cincinnati Reds- 80-77 overall this season, 42-34 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 95-62 overall this season, 27-20 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Boston today)

• San Diego Padres- 77-80 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Mets- Under is 85-64-7 this season, 45-26-4 as the home team

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 80-72-4 this season, 26-20 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Tampa Bay today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• San Francisco Giants- Run line is 19-7 as a home underdog in 2023

• Houston Astros- Run line is 25-7 as a road underdog in 2023

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💎 Verlander pitches gem against Seattle. In a challenging season, Justin Verlander showcased his ace-quality pitching once more, helping the Houston Astros secure a crucial 5-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners. Verlander delivered an exceptional performance, taking a shutout into the ninth inning and allowing only three hits. Although he missed out on a complete game, his efforts boosted Houston's position in the American League playoff race, extending their wild card lead to 1½ games over Seattle and keeping them 2½ games behind Texas in the AL West.

💪 Rangers extend win streak to six games. The Texas Rangers secured their sixth consecutive victory by defeating the Los Angeles Angels 5-1 on Monday. Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver, and Nathaniel Lowe hit back-to-back-to-back home runs in the winning effort, giving the Rangers a 3-1 lead that they would not give up. Jon Gray, who was removed from the game after pitching seven innings, had a solid outing as well, enabling Texas to maintain its 2½-game lead in the AL West.

🎩 Raptors throw their hat in the ring for Damian Lillard. The Toronto Raptors have emerged as a surprising contender in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes. While they are not yet close to sealing a deal, the Raptors seem reasonably confident about their chances, even ahead of Lillard's preferred destination, the Miami Heat. Toronto's potential package includes OG Anunoby, draft assets, and other considerations, aiming to form a core with Lillard, Pascal Siakam, and Scottie Barnes.

🔀 AP Poll shuffles after Week 4 chaos. Colorado and Deion Sanders' teams dropped out of the Associated Press college football poll following a significant loss in a weekend showcase game, leading to a reshuffling and tightening of the top-ranked teams. Georgia, remaining at No. 1, received 55 of a possible 63 first-place votes, while Michigan held onto the second spot and earned one first-place vote. Texas maintained its position at No. 3 with two first-place votes, and Ohio State climbed two spots to No. 4, securing a first-place vote after defeating Notre Dame with a late-game touchdown.

💰Jerome Tang signs new contract with Kansas State. Kansas State men's basketball coach Jerome Tang has inked a fresh seven-year contract. The deal includes an annual salary increase, starting at $3 million for this season and culminating at $3.6 million in 2029-30. Tang expressed excitement about the program's future and emphasized his commitment to elevating it, building on the success of the previous season when Kansas State defied expectations, finishing third in the Big 12 and making a remarkable run to the Elite Eight.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into you NBA and NCAA basketball memory bank.

We’ve given you the headshot and name of a current NBA player, and it is your job to guess which college/university that player attended before playing in the NBA.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on September 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 26th…

1962- Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Maury Wills becomes the first player in MLB history to steal 100 bases in a season. Wills would end the 1962 season with 104 stolen bags, which would end up becoming his career high. Wills ended his 15-year MLB career with 586 stolen bases, ranking him 20th all-time.

1983- St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Bob Forsche throws a no-hitter in a 3-0 win over the Montreal Expos. Forsche would strikeout six opposing hitters and and not allow a walk, but one error by the Cardinals kept it from a perfect game. Forsche became just the 25th player in MLB history to throw more than one no-hitter in his career, and at the time was the only Cardinals pitcher to do so.

1996- San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds becomes the second player in MLB history to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases in a season. Bonds joined Jose Canseco on the list, and ended the 1996 season with 42 homers and 40 stolen bags. Today there are five players on the 40-40 list, with Ronald Acuna Jr. becoming the latest member just last Friday.

Tyrese Maxey- Kentucky

C.J. McCollum- Lehigh

Bobby Portis- Arkansas

Matisse Thybulle- Washington

Gordon Hayward- Butler