In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 224.5, Pacers +9

The Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics will continue their best-of-seven series on Thursday, staying in Boston, Massachusetts for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston nearly lost Game 1 despite being a double-digit favorite, but managed to force overtime via a Jaylen Brown three-pointer with just six seconds left in regulation. The Celtics would outscore the Pacers 16-11 in the overtime period to win 133-128, giving them an early 1-0 series lead.

Indiana looked like it was heading for a beatdown early on in Game 1, but fought back and likely would have stolen a win on the road if not for some late turnovers. Our model expects the Pacers to lose again tonight, but still sees value on backing the Pacers on the spread because of that performance, as well as the total. Let’s dive into why that is.

Indiana Pacers

• Looked doomed early on in Game 1, but closed the gap quickly

  • Went down 12-0 in first three minutes of game

  • Stormed back rather quickly- Down only three points at end of first quarter. Tied game at 64 at halftime

• Offense continues to be off the charts

  • Scored 128 points in Game 1, with 117 coming in regulation. Shot 54% overall and 37% from three

  • Now own 121.2 Offensive Rating in postseason- Ranks 1st among playoff teams and is 2.4 points better than Boston

• Injuries- Benedict Mathurin is OUT

Boston Celtics

• Needed miracle to win Game 1

  • Jaylen Brown tied game with late three-pointer

  • Free throws saved the day too- Shot 30 free throws to Indiana’s 10

• Come out of the gates hot, but have cooled off significantly in second half of most playoff games

  • 1st half- 124.3 Offensive Rating and +20.7 Net Rating. Shooting 49.7% overall while averaging 59.9 points

  • 2nd half- 112.3 Offensive Rating and +1.1 Net Rating. Shooting 46.0% overall and averaging 49.9 points

• Injuries- Kristaps Porzingis is OUT. Xavier Tillman is questionable

What’s the Play?

Boston had tons of luck on its side in Game 1, which came from a combination the free throw disparity and self-inflicted turnovers late in the game by the Pacers. That could mean we see Indiana keep things close again as both of those factors turn, but we agree with our model that the over is the better play here.

Boston and Indiana have now squared off six times this season, seeing an average total of 248.3 points per game in those matchups. That average is largely due to the fact that both squads are among the best we have ever seen offensively in the NBA, with both now ranking 1st and 2nd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs, but it is also due to Indiana’s lack of defense and fast pace, which allows Boston to score in bunches while giving Indiana bountiful opportunities to match.

It doesn’t appear that the Pacers are going to become a defensive power house and slow down Boston, but Indiana has the talent and scoring depth to trade buckets all night long with Boston. That should lead to another high-scoring affair in Game 2.

The Play: Over 224.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 73-20 overall this season, 42-6 as the home team, and 9-2 in postseason

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Indiana Pacers- Over is 51-44-2 this season, 26-18-1 as an underdog, and 9-5 in postseason

• Boston Celtics- Over is 4-2 against the Indiana Pacers this season with average total of 248.3

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Indiana Pacers- 52-42-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 26-17-2 ATS as an underdog, and 8-6 ATS in postseason

💪 Doncic, Irving take over in second half to beat Timberwolves. Luka Doncic scored 15 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter, leading the Dallas Mavericks to a 108-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. Kyrie Irving added 24 of his 30 points in the first half, while the Mavericks overcame a late deficit with a crucial 8-0 run, holding off the Wolves' final efforts. Despite strong performances from Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards, who was recently named to the All-NBA Second Team, the Timberwolves struggled offensively, allowing Dallas to secure their first series-opening win under coach Jason Kidd.

🏆 NBA announces All-NBA teams. The All-NBA teams were announced late Wednesday, featuring Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum on the first team alongside international players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic, with the latter two being unanimous selections. Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards made their first appearances on the second team, boosting Edwards' future earnings, while Tyrese Haliburton's third-team selection also increased his upcoming salary. This year marked the first instance of positionless All-NBA voting, requiring players to have played at least 65 regular-season games to qualify.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler was drafted by what current NL West team with the No.6 pick in the 2009 MLB Draft?

Question #2- Marshawn Lynch and what other running back led the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the 2013 season, each scoring 12?

Question #3- The San Antonio Spurs swept what Eastern Conference team in four games to win the 2007 NBA Finals?

Anyone know what has happened on May 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 23rd…

1991- Former NFL defensive lineman Aaron Donald is born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Donald stormed onto the football scene during his time at Penn Hills High School in Pittsburgh, where he was named First-Team All-State and earned a spot on the University of Pittsburgh football team. He would play four seasons at Pittsburgh before being drafted by the St. Louis Rams with the No.13 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the team he would win a Super Bowl and three Defensive Player of the Year Awards with in his career.

2010- The Chicago Blackhawks defeat the San Jose Sharks in the NHL’s Western Conference Finals. Chicago took down San Jose 4-0 to secure a clean sweep, posting a +6 goal differential in the series. The Blackhawks would go on to face the Philadelphia Flyers in the Stanley Cup Finals, beating Philadelphia in six games.

2021- Phil Mickelson wins the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island Golf Resort. Mickelson finished with a 72-hole score of 6-under par, defeating Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka by two strokes. The victory marked the sixth time that Mickelson won a major in his career, and he became the oldest golfer ever to win a major title (50 years old).

1. San Francisco Giants

2. Jamaal Charles

3. Cleveland Cavaliers