In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Thursday July 13, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

💪 LeBron James coming back for his 21st NBA season. The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals in May, ending with LeBron James openly questioning if his NBA career has come to an end. However, James said the he would return to the court in a speech made at the ESPY’s on Wednesday, giving Lakers fans hope at another playoff run in 2024. “The King” appears to still have plenty of gas left in the tank following a season in which he averaged 28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game, and it keeps the possibility of playing with his son Bronny, who is a freshman at USC, on the table.

🌎 Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander highlight Canada’s FIBA World Cup roster. The Canadian men’s national team announced its training camp roster for the FIBA World Cup on Thursday, a roster that is highlited by NBA stars Jamal Murray and Shai Gilegous-Alexander. SGA was named to the All-NBA first-team for the 2022-23 season after averaging 31.4 points per game, and Murray played a massive role in Denver’s NBA Finals run an eventual championship. Several other NBA players, including RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, Lu Dort, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, are also listed on the roster, along with Purdue star Zach Edey.

❌ Coyotes terminate Alex Galchenyuk’s contract. Alex Galchenyuk was set to become a member of the Arizona Coyotes for the third time in his career after signing a one-year deal earlier this month, but it appears that his third stint with the team is going to be over before it even begins. Per Katie Strang, Arizona is placing Galchenyuk on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract following the 29-year-old’s arrest on July 9th. Galchenyuk has bounced all over the NHL since being drafted third overall in 2012, suiting up for the Canadiens, Coyotes, Penguins, Wild, Senators, Maple Leafs, and Avalanche.

⭐️ Dallas re-signs Ty Dellandrea to one-year deal. The Dallas Stars and forward Ty Dellandrea have come to terms on a one-year contract worth $900,000, per the Stars’ team Twitter account. He will become a restricted free-agent with arbitration rights at the end of the deal, but can’t become an unrestricted free-agent until 2028. Dellandrea collected nine goals and 19 assists in 82 games in what was his first full NHL season in 2022-23, going on to score three goals in Dallas’ postseason run that ended in the Western Conference Finals.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today, the first day back from the All-Star break. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 8.5, Marlins +1.5

The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series on Friday night in what is the first game back from the All-Star break for both squads.

Miami entered the All-Star break with quite a bit of momentum, defeating NL East rival Philadelphia in its final two games while posting a +6 run differential in that time. However, the Marlins are going to have to fight off an even hotter Orioles team this evening, a team that ripped off five straight wins prior to the break.

Both of these teams have had a ton of success in 2023, but today’s pitching matchup makes this game a coin flip in the eyes of our model. Will we see a tight game throughout, or will one of these team’s separate themselves and continue its win streak?

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2023 season. After finishing the 2022 season with a 69-93 record, Miami enters today’s matchup at 53-39 and in second place in the NL East.

Consistency at the plate has been a big reason why the Marlins are in this position. According to TeamRankings, the Marlins own the fifth highest team batting average at .265, up from .230 a season ago. Fangraphs also has the Marlins listed with a 100 wRC+, the 16th-best mark in the majors and up from 88 in 2022.

This team isn’t going to crush you with home runs, entering today with just 87 for the season. However, the Marlins get on base at a high clip, which often puts them in position to win baseball games.

While the offense has clearly flipped the script, one Marlins pitcher has seen tons of regression in 2023. That pitcher is Sandy Alcantara (3-7 record, 4.72 ERA), who is set to get the start this evening.

Alcantara won the NL Cy Young in 2022, a direct result of his stellar 2.28 ERA. However, the ERA has soared to 4.72 in 2023, and his 4.35 xERA shows that expectations aren’t far off from reality. He has regressed in several metrics, including strikeout rate, walk rate, and Barrel rate, per Baseball Savant, which have all contributed to his sudden fall from the top of the league.

Baltimore Orioles

As previously mentioned, the Baltimore Orioles enter tonight’s matchup in the midst of a five-game win streak, tied with the Red Sox for the longest in baseball.

Those five wins have been highlighted by offensive dominance. Fangraph’s lists Baltimore with a 156 wRC+ in that span, the second-highest in the league, and also lists Baltimore with a .348 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

Those numbers have led to a stellar +35 run differential during the win streak, which includes beating the Yankees and Twins by 13 runs in two of those matchups.

Baltimore’s pitching also did a fantastic job on the mound right before the break, posting a 1.37 ERA. However, the O’s will start Dean Kremer (9-4 record, 4.78 ERA) this evening, which could put their win streak in jeopardy.

Kremer’s 9-4 record is deceiving for a multitude of reasons. His 4.78 ERA is already rather high, but his 5.64 xERA shows that things will likely get worse in the future. That number exists because of Kremer’s vulnerability to hard contact (45.1% Hard Hit rate), along with his 10.8% Barrel rate, both of which place him in the bottom 16% of the majors this season.

What’s the Play?

Our model thinks this is going to be a tight matchup, which doesn’t give us much confidence in picking tonight’s winner. However, we do agree with our model that the over is a great play.

As previously mentioned, Miami isn’t going to beat you by launching balls over the fence. However, the Marlins’ high rate of contact bodes very well against Kremer, a guy who rarely walks batters but doesn’t generate many strikeouts or swings and misses either, as evidenced by ranking in the bottom 50% of strikeout and whiff rate.

Alcantara doesn’t get sized up to the same level as Kremer, but his regression in strikeouts and whiff rate will likely become an issue against an Orioles team that is batting .253 with a .745 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, per ESPN.

We expect to see plenty of hits in tonight’s game. As a result, we’ll make the over a 3-star play, which our model gives a 52.16% chance of hitting at 8.5 runs.

3-star play: Over 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 54-35 overall this season, 26-18 as the home team, currently on five-game win streak

• San Francisco Giants- 49-41 overall this season, 23-19 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 49-42 overall this season, 17-9 against NL Central opponents (Play NL Central rival Cincinnati tonight)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 46-34-9 this season, third-highest win percentage in MLB

• Texas Rangers- Over is 47-36-8 this season, 26-13-6 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 48-38-3 this season, 22-20-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 58-33 overall this season, 28-11 as a road underdog

• Houston Astros- Run line is 47-44 overall this season, 17-7 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👀 Dodgers show interest in Lucas Giolito. The Chicago White Sox currently sit in fourth place in the AL Central with a 38-54 record, causing many to believe the team will be sellers at this season’s trade deadline. The rumors surrounding any potential trade of White Sox players have already begun to swirl, with right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito being attached to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have had plenty of issues with its starting rotation, which has included injuries to Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, and Noah Syndergaard, so the addition of Giolito would be a welcome one. Giolito has appeared in 19 games in 2023, posting a 6-5 record, 3.45 ERA, and 117 strikeouts across 112.1 innings.

✍️ Rockies sign Chris Flexen to minor league deal. According to Thomas Harding of MLB.com, the Colorado Rockies and Chris Flexen have reportedly come to terms on a minor-league contract. Flexen, a member of the Seattle Mariners the last six seasons, was traded from Seattle to the New York Mets on July 3rd, but was immediately released by New York afterwards. The 29-year-old has struggled throughout 2023, posting a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 42.0 innings, but his presence could provide a boost to a Rockies team that ranks 29th in Team ERA (5.73).

☎️ Oakland calling up two top prospects to majors. Two of Oakland’s top prospects, Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof, were called up to the majors on Thursday, with both scheduled to make their first appearance in Oakland’s game against the Minnesota Twins tonight. Soderstorm, a first baseman and catcher, is Oakland’s No.1 ranked prospect, while Gelof, a second and third baseman, is ranked No.3. Oakland owns an MLB-worst 25 wins this season, so it should come as no surprise that the Athletics are starting to let some young-guns figure out what life is like in the major leagues.

✍️ Jets, Quinnen Williams ink four-year extension. The New York Jets and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams have reportedly agreed to terms on a contract extension. Per Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network, the extension is for four years and is worth $96 million, $66 million of which is fully guaranteed. The contract also makes Williams the second-highest paid defensive tackle on a per-year basis, behind the one and only Aaron Donald. Williams was entering the final season of his rookie contract, but will now be with the team until at least 2027 after tallying 55 tackles and 12 sacks last season.

⛳️ Byeong-Hun An leads Scottish Open by two strokes after Round 1. The Genesis Scottish Open teed off on Thursday morning in Gullane, Scotland, with Byeong-Hun An shooting a 9-under 61 to become the sole leader after 18 holes. An ripped off four birdies on the front nine, following that up with five birdies on the back nine in what would eventually become a bogey-free round. The 61 was An’s best score on the PGA Tour, and he will look to extend his lead over Davis Riley (-7), Thomas Detry (-6), and Rory McIlroy (-6) on Friday.

⭐️ Five-star wide receiver Joshisa Trader commits to Miami. The Miami Hurricanes finished the 2022 season with a 5-7 record, but a commitment from a 5-star recruit gives the Hurricanes and their fans hope for the future. Joshisa Trader, a wide receiver and Florida native, committed to the Hurricanes on Thursday, giving Miami its first 5-star recruit in the class of 2024. Trader is the third-ranked wide receiver and 11th overall recruit in the 2024 class and chose Miami over Florida State, Georgia, and Ohio State.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only one team has had a perfect season since the NFL began in 1920, winning every regular season and playoff game along with the Super Bowl. That season came in 1972, with what team accomplishing the feat?

Question #2- Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard has been in plenty of headlines in recent weeks, but before he achieved so much NBA notoriety he played college basketball at a school in the Big Sky Conference. What school did Lillard attend for his NCAA career?

Question #3- Prior to moving to Los Angeles, the Clippers played in two cities on opposite sides of the country. One city was Buffalo, where the Clippers were called the Braves, but what was the other city?

Anyone know what has happened on July 14th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 14th…

1987- The MLB’s Rookie of the Year award is renamed to honor Jackie Robinson, becoming the Jackie Robinson Award. The change came 40 years after Robinson broke the MLB’s color barrier, an historic event that came when Robinson started at first base for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947. Robinson played for Brooklyn until 1956, batting .313 with 141 home runs in his Dodgers career.

1988- Mike Schmidt hits his 537th home run in a 7-5 loss to the Houston Astros. The dinger pushed Schmidt past Mickey Mantle on the all-time list, putting him in 7th place at the time. Schmidt, who was a 12-time All-Star and three-time NL MVP in his 17-year career with the Philadelphia Phillies, currently sits in 16th on the all-time home runs list with 548.

2019- Novak Dokovic defeats Roger Federer in the Wimbledon final, a match that would go on to be the longest in the history of Wimbledon. The match lasted an historic 4 hours and 57 minutes, with Dokovic winning his sets 7-6, 7-6, and 13-12. The win also gave him his 16th Grand Slam title, and for his career he owns a record 23 Grand Slam singles victories and seven Wimbledon titles.

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