In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were no model predictions yesterday, July 18, 2024.

14 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups can be found below.

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, OVER 7.5, Tigers -1.5

The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays will return from the MLB All-Star break on Friday, beginning with a three-game series at the Rogers Center in Toronto, Canada.

Detroit enters tonight’s matchup with a sub-.500 record (47-50), but showed some signs of promise prior to the All-Star break, emerging victorious in eight of its last ten games. Toronto also sits well below the .500 mark at 44-52, and limped into the break after posting a 3-3 record in its final six games.

Neither one of these teams has been particularly good this season, but the Tigers have plenty of momentum on their side and our model expects Detroit to build on that momentum this evening. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Tigers

• Entered All-Star break as one of hottest teams in MLB

  • Own 8-2 record across last 10 games

  • +19 run differential in that 10-game stretch

• Offense is responsible for hot streak

  • Rank 3rd in wRC+ (137), 10th in BABIP (.310), and 1st in OPS (.847) since July 1st

  • 23 home runs and 72 runs scored in July both rank 4th in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Jack Flaherty

  • Due for some positive regression- 3.13 ERA vs 2.91 xERA

  • Rank sin top 6% of MLB in Strikeout rate (32.1%) and Walk rate (4.3%)

Toronto Blue Jays

• Struggled to find momentum before All-Star break

  • Posted 3-3 record in final six games

  • -5 run differential during that span

• Pitching staff was result of sluggish stretch before break

  • Starters- 5.92 ERA (23rd), 4.27 FIP (17th), 1.42 HR/9 (15th)

  • Relievers- 5.55 ERA (25th), 6.98 FIP (30th), 2.22 HR/9 (27th)

• Starting pitcher- Chris Bassitt

  • Due to see regression- 3.52 ERA vs 4.24 xERA

  • Struggling with command (9.6% Walk rate). Very few swings and misses (20.2% Whiff rate)

What’s the Play?

Detroit is a slight underdog in this matchup, but our model believes they should be a heavy favorite and as a result we are going to back the Tigers on the money line.

Jack Flaherty has had an incredible turnaround this season. In 2023 he posted a 22.8% Strikeout rate and 10.2% Walk rate, but those numbers have improved dramatically to 32.1% and 4.3%, respectively. That is a big reason why his xERA comes in below his real ERA, a sign that he has dominated on the mound this season and is likely to see more improvement down that line, and Toronto provides him with a great matchup to do so.

Meanwhile, several metrics point toward Chris Bassitt experiencing some bumps in the road in the future, and it doesn’t help that his offense has been far from reliable this season.

Detroit has the better pitcher and more consistent offense at the moment, giving the Tigers plenty of value at +100.

The Play: Tigers ML (+100)

Money Line Trends💰

• New York Yankees- 58-40 overall this season, 25-19 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- 47-50 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games

• Baltimore Orioles- 58-38 overall this season, 28-16 as the away team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 56-34-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (62.2%)

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 49-38-9 this season, 25-16-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 54-43 this season, 24-20 as the home team

💰 Burns receives record bonus from Reds. The Cincinnati Reds signed second overall pick Chase Burns to an MLB draft-record $9.25 million bonus, surpassing the previous record by $50,000. Burns, a top right-handed pitcher from Wake Forest, had an outstanding junior year and is now set to start his professional career at the Reds' spring training complex in Arizona. This marks the second consecutive year the Reds have selected a pitcher with their top draft pick.

🏟 St. Petersburg approves Rays stadium plan. The Tampa Bay Rays are set to receive a new ballpark as part of a $6.5 billion redevelopment project following a city council vote, ensuring the team's stay for at least 30 years. The project, which aims to transform an 86-acre tract in downtown St. Petersburg, includes plans for a Black history museum, affordable housing, a hotel, green space, and more, with a focus on addressing past displacements of a Black community. The proposed $1.3 billion ballpark, scheduled to open in 2028, will be funded through a combination of city, county, and private investments, though it faces some opposition over the large public subsidy involved.

Today’s trivia requires you to know a little bit about college football. We’ve given you the logo of the university in which five Heisman Trophy winners from 2018-2022 have attended, and it is your job to guess all five players.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 19th…

1910- Hall of Fame pitcher Cy Young records his 500th career win in a 5-2 over the Washington Senators, becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to reach the milestone. To this day Young, who would win 511 games in his career, remains the only pitcher to ever reach 500 career wins, with the next closest player being Walter Johnson with 417. As a result of this accomplishment, Young would have an award named after him, which is handed out every season to the best pitcher in the National and American League.

1989- NFL owners vote unanimously to form the World League of American Football. The league would serve as a developmental minor league for the NFL, but would only last until 1993 before going on a two-year hiatus. However, it eventually restarted operations in 1995 with teams in England, Germany, the Netherlands, Scotland, and Maine. The World League of American Football, which later became known as the NFL Europe League, ceased operations in 2007, with the NFL instead opting to play games internationally every season to grow its exposure.

1991- Baltimore Orioles star Cal Ripken plays in his 1,500th consecutive MLB game. Ripken, who played for the Orioles from 1981 to 2001, would go on to stretch his consecutive games played streak to 2,632, which to this day remains an MLB record. Playing almost every day allowed the third baseman to accomplish many things in his career, including being selected to the All-Star game 19 times and winning the AL MVP twice (1983, 1991).

Trivia Answers

2022- Caleb Williams

2021- Bryce Young

2020- DeVonta Smith

2019- Joe Burrow

2018- Kyler Murray