In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-10

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Model Predicts- Diamondbacks ML, OVER 11, Rockies +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, with the first pitch in Game 3 scheduled to take place at 3:10 PM Eastern.

Colorado has surprisingly taken control of this series from the jump, winning each of the first two contests. Those victories now make the Rockies winners of five of their last six, while the Diamondbacks find themselves in the midst of a slump, finding the win column in just four of their last five games.

Our model expects Arizona to get back on track this afternoon and avoid the sweep, but it also expects the Rockies to pour in some runs in what is projected to be a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Have lost four of last five games

  • Two losses to Brewers, two losses to Rockies

  • Own —14 run differential in that span

• Offense has been great in September despite losing record

  • Own 7-8 record since September 1st

  • Offense ranks 2nd in wRC+ (133), 2nd in BABIP (.332), and 1st in OPS (.847)

  • 97 runs scored ranks 1st in MLB and is 14 more than next closest team

• Starting pitcher- Eduardo Rodriguez

  • Due for regression- 5.50 ERA vs 6.15 xERA

  • Surrendering tons of barrel contact (12.1% Barrel rate)

Colorado Rockies

• Have won five of last six games

  • One win over Tigers, two wins over Cubs, and two wins over Diamondbacks

  • Own +10 run differential in that span

• Advanced metrics show mediocre offense during winning stretch, but runs are still pouring in

  • Rank 17th in wRC+ (97), 22nd in BABIP (.271), and 8th in OPS (.773) since September 12th

  • Doing damage with homers- 11 home runs over last six games leads MLB

• Starting pitcher- Austin Gomber

  • Due for regression- 4.44 ERA vs 4.96 xERA

  • Surrendering contact at high rate- ranks in bottom 8% of MLB in Strikeout rate (17.0%) and Whiff rate (19.9%)

What’s the Play?

This is the second day in a row that our model has targeted the Diamondbacks/Rockies matchup. Yesterday’s best bet was Rockies +1.5, which our model likes again today, however, we are going to back the over here.

The key in today’s matchup is that both Eduardo Rodriguez and Austin Gomber are due for regression on the mound. Each pitcher owns an xERA that is more than 0.5 runs higher than his real ERA, signaling that both have been lucky on the mound thus far and should give up more runs in the future.

That regression is likely to happen today, as Rodriguez and Gomber will face an offense that has proven it can get a hold of the baseball. Per FanGraphs, Arizona has launched 24 home runs in September, that most in the MLB, leading to an MLB-leading 97 runs in that span. Colorado isn’t nearly as hot over the span of the entire month, but as previously mentioned, the Rockies have hit 11 homers in the last six games alone, highlighting the team’s power.

Rodriguez and Gomber struggle to keep balls off the barrel, as both rank in the bottom 16% of the majors in Barrel rate this season. That is a flaw that is likely to trigger their pending regression, so we will back the over in this matchup despite the high total.

The Play: Over 11 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Brewers- 87-64 overall this season, 43-30 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- 79-73 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games, and 3-0 in last three games

• New York Yankees- 88-63 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 86-59-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (59.3%)

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 78-62-11 this season, 38-27-8 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Colorado Rockies- Run line is 39-29 as a home underdog this season

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 86-66 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (56.6%)

💪 Snell strikes out 12 in shutout win against Orioles. Blake Snell led the San Francisco Giants to a 10-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, striking out 12 and allowing just one hit in six innings. The Orioles, struggling with injuries and a declining performance, have now lost seven of their last nine games, dropping them further behind the first-place Yankees in the AL East. Mike Yastrzemski hit a home run and an RBI single to support Snell's dominant pitching, while the Giants broke their four-game losing streak with a six-run ninth inning.

🏟 Feltner picks up first win at Coors Field in two years as Rockies beat Diamondbacks. Hunter Goodman and Ezequiel Tovar homered, and Ryan Feltner pitched into the seventh inning for his first win at Coors Field in two years, as the Colorado Rockies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-2, hurting Arizona's playoff hopes. Tovar had three hits and two RBIs, while Goodman hit his 13th homer of the season, helping the Rockies score additional runs in the seventh and eighth innings. Arizona's Christian Walker homered, but the loss dropped the Diamondbacks into a tie with the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the youngest quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl?

Question #2- The New York Yankees have won the World Series 27 times. When was their last Fall Classic victory?

Question #3- Dirk Nowitzki is the highest scoring foreign player in NBA history with 31,560 points. Where does Dirk rank on the all-time scoring list?

Anyone know what has happened on September 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 18th…

1966- Baltimore Colts quarterback Johnny Unitas throws four touchdown passes in a 38-23 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The performance gave Unitas 212 passing TDs for his career, surpassing Y.A. Tittle for the top spot all-time. Unitas ended his career with 290 touchdowns, ranking him 17th all-time.

1991- The NCAA places the University of Tennessee on two years probation. The punishment resulted from various recruiting violations, which have become an all too familiar occurrence within the Volunteer program. Tennessee was also punished for recruiting violations earlier this summer, resulting in an $8 million fine.

1996- Boston Red Sox pitcher Roger Clemens records 20 strikeouts in a 4-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers. The 20 strikeouts tied the MLB record, which Clemens set himself more than 10 years earlier in 1986. Today there are two other pitchers, Max Scherzer and Kerry Wood, who have also reached the 20 strikeout mark in a single game, and eight others who have reached 19.

1. Ben Roethlisberger

2. 2009

3. 6th