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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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11 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays

Model Predicts- Cubs ML,OVER 7.5, Rays +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up their three-game series on Thursday night, with Game 3 scheduled to take place at 6:50 PM Eastern.

Both teams have seen mixed results thus far in the series, with Tampa Bay grabbing the win in Game 1 while Chicago snuck away with a narrow victory in Game 2. Splitting the series has moved Chicago’s record to 33-35 for the season, good enough for second place in the NL Central, while Tampa Bay sits in fifth place in the AL East at 32-36.

The Cubs and Rays have strung together similar performances this season, but our model sees value on the Cubs this afternoon as a slight road favorite. Let’s dive into why that is.

Chicago Cubs

• Have split series with Rays through two games

  • Outscored 5-2 in Game 1 before winning 4-3 in Game 2

  • Now 5-5 in month of June

• Have faired better against right-handed pitching this month, but still doing well against both

  • Vs righties- Rank 12th in wRC+ (109), 7th in BABIP (.303), and 13th in OPS (.727)

  • Vs lefities- 15th in wRC+ (110), 24th in BABIP (.270), 19th in OPS (.716)

• Starting pitcher- Justin Steele

  • Due for positive regression- 3.65 ERA vs 3.17 xERA

  • Great at avoiding barrel contact and walks- Ranks in top 26% of MLB in Barrel rate (5.4%), and walk rate (6.4%)

Tampa Bay Rays

• Enter tonight in small slump

  • Have lost five of last six games. Only win came against Cubs

  • -16 run differential in that six-game span

• Offense has been unable to produce vs left-handed pitching during slump

  • Own 74 wRC+ (27th), .606 OPS (22nd), and hitting .231 as a team

  • Striking out in bunches and drawing few walks- 33.3% strikeout rate and 1.9% walk rate

• Starting pitcher- Taj Bradley

  • Due for slight regression- 5.17 ERA vs 5.42 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact and fly balls- Ranks in bottom 15% in Hard Hit rate (44.4%), bottom 5% in ground ball rate (30.9%) and bottom 1% in Barrel rate (17.3%)

What’s the Play?

Chicago has struggled to string together multiple wins in a row since the start of May, but we agree with our model that the Cubs can win today’s game outright for their second win in as many days.

Taj Bradley has been an inconsistent option for Tampa Bay this season, and will likely be in harms way again this evening against the Cubs. In his last start we saw him surrender just one earned run on three hits across five innings, but prior to that Bradley allowed the Baltimore Orioles to tag him for nine hits, nine runs, and four home runs in just 3.1 innings of work. His vulnerability to the barrel makes him a blow up candidate in every start, and we think he is in store for one today.

Additionally, Chicago has only gotten better against right-handed pitchers, which Bradley is, as the month has gone on, posting a 114 wRC+, .751 OPS, and 20.2% strikeout rate since June 7th. The Cubs have the advantage at the plate, and Steele’s looming positive regression along with Tampa Bay’s struggles against left-handers works in their favor as well. Our model believes Chicago should be closer to a -150 favorite, so we will take the Cubs outright tonight at -115.

The Play: Cubs ML (-115)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 49-21 overall this season, 27-11 as the away team, and 8-2 in last ten games

• St. Louis Cardinals- 32-34 overall this season, 16-15 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 39-24-2 this season, 20-12-2 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 22-18-1 as the home team this season

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 41-26 this season, 25-12 as the away team

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 40-29 this season, 21-17 as the home team

🐻 Cubs sign Jorge Lopez after release from Mets. The Chicago Cubs signed right-handed pitcher Jorge López to a minor-league deal after his release from the New York Mets on June 5. López, who had a 3.76 ERA in 28 appearances for the Mets, was ejected on May 29 and controversially threw his glove into the stands, later apologizing for his actions. The Cubs, with a bullpen ERA of 4.47 and several key relievers on the injured list, hope López can bolster their pitching staff.

💪 Twins CRUSH Rockies thanks to 24 hits. The Minnesota Twins defeated the Colorado Rockies 17-9, achieving a season-high 24 hits, including homers from Willi Castro and Royce Lewis, and a career-best five hits from Carlos Correa. The Twins' offense exploded with a five-run first inning and a seven-run eighth, while Carlos Santana contributed significantly with a three-run double and an RBI single. Despite a rain delay and bullpen struggles, the Twins held on to win, marking their most hits in a game since 2017, and taking two out of three games in the series against the Rockies.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The University of Georgia football program has had loads of talent over the years, especially in 2022, the year Georgia set the record for most NFL Draft selections in a single year. How many Georgia players were drafted in 2022?

Question #2- Roy Williams came on to the college basketball coaching scene in 1978, joining the University of North Carolina as an assistant. He would later become the head coach of the Tar Heels in 2003, but had one other head coaching stint in the NCAA from 1988-2003. What school was Williams the head coach at before North Carolina?

Question #3- Three players in MLB history have stolen 900 or more bases. Billy Hamilton sits in third with 914, and Lou Brock is in second with 938. Ricky Henderson sits as the stolen bases king though, several hundred ahead of Brock. How many bases did Henderson steal in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on June 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 13th…

1948- New York Yankees legend Babe Ruth presents his “Farewell to Baseball” speech in Yankee Stadium. The speech was conducted on the day that the Yankees retired Ruth’s number, and it would be the last time he would be in Yankee Stadium. Ruth was suffering from cancer at the time the speech was made, and passed away from the disease a few months later in August of 1948. He was 53 years old.

1953- Jim Peters runs a marathon in 2:18:40, setting a new World Record. The Englishman broke the marathon World Record four times in the 1950s, also becoming the first person to run a marathon in under 2 hours and 20 minutes. Peters is most known for collapsing at the end of the marathon at the 1954 Commonwealth Games, a race where he opened up a 17-minute gap on the rest of the field and crawled to the finish line.

1997- The Chicago Bulls defeat the Utah Jazz 90-86 in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, giving the Bulls their fifth NBA title in the last seven seasons. Utah entered the series as the No.1 seed in the West with a 64-18 regular season record, but Chicago was slightly better at 69-13 and the No.1 seed in the East. Michael Jordan was named Finals MVP for the fifth time in his career, with his most memorable performance being the “Flu Game” in Game 5 of the series.

1. 15

2. University of Kansas

3. 1,406