In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 4-10-1

Run Line Predictions: 4-11

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 213, Celtics +2.5

The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will continue their best-of-seven series on Wednesday, taking the series back to Dallas, Texas for Game 3.

Boston enters Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, a result of defending home court in Games 1 and 2. The Celtics are now a stellar 14-2 in the postseason, while Dallas now owns a 12-7 postseason record following a slow start to these NBA Finals.

Some injury news, as well as a change in home court, has shifted this spread almost nine points from Game 2 in favor of Dallas, but our model projects Boston to still win Game 3 despite those factors. Let’s dive into why that is.

Boston Celtics

• Defended home court to begin series

  • Outscored Dallas 107-89 in Game 1, 105-98 in Game 2

  • Posted +12.8 Net Rating in that two-game span

• Shift in venue could make a difference, but Boston has handled that well

  • Own perfect 6-0 record as the road team in postseason

  • Have posted a +11.4 Net Rating in that stretch. Opponents averaging 96.7 points per game while shooting 44.3% overall and 30.6% from three

• Injuries- Kristaps Porzingis is questionable

Dallas Mavericks

• Struggling to find rhythm offensively in series

  • Own 100.0 Offensive Rating in NBA Finals. Boston’s is 112.8

  • Offensive Rating was 115.9 in Round 1, 112.0 in Round 2, and 118.3 in Western Conference Finals

• Production off bench has been reason for offensive decline

  • Averaged 23.6 bench points per game from Rounds 1 through 3- fifth most of any postseason team

  • Now averaging just 14.5 per game in Finals while shooting 35.7% overall and 27.3% from three

• Injuries- Luka Doncic is questionable. Greg Brown is OUT

What’s the Play?

Yes, the injury to Kristaps Porzingis and the change in venue should shift this line toward Dallas, but we agree with our model that shifting the line nearly 10 points is an over-adjustment and will be backing Boston on the spread as an underdog.

The Mavericks played tremendous basketball through three rounds, but we are starting to see that the Celtics are a different beast defensively compared to the Clippers, Thunder, and Timberwolves. Boston finished the regular season with the second-best Defensive Rating at 110.6, and that rating has only improved to 107.6 in the playoffs, highlighting that the Celtics are a tough matchup for any team they cross paths with.

The regular season series between these two squads further highlights the edge Boston has here, as the Celtics posted a 2-0 record and +18.5 Net Rating across two games, a result of dominating on both ends of the floor.

It’s rare that we get to back Boston as an underdog, and considering that a change in home court has yet to affect the Celtics in the postseason, as evidenced by their 6-0 road record, there is plenty of value in doing so.

The Play: Celtics +2.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 78-20 overall this season, 14-2 overall in postseason, and 6-0 on road in postseason

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Celtics- Over is 8-8 in the postseason

• Dallas Mavericks- Over is 9-10 in the postseason

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Boston Celtics- 49-43-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 8-7-1 ATS in postseason

🤕 Porzingis listed as day-to-day with leg injury. Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla revealed that Kristaps Porzingis has a serious injury but is determined to play in Game 3. The Celtics announced that Porzingis is day-to-day after dislocating the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg during Game 2 against the Dallas Mavericks, though it is unrelated to his right calf issue. Despite being listed as questionable for Wednesday's game, Porzingis is determined to play unless medically advised against it, and he returned strong in Game 1 of the Finals after missing ten postseason games.

💉 Doncic receiving pain injections prior to Game 3 for chest injury. Luka Doncic received a pain-killing injection for a thoracic contusion before Game 2 of the NBA Finals and is expected to take another before Game 3, according to ESPN. Despite being listed as questionable due to multiple injuries, Doncic is probable for Game 3 and is averaging 31 points, 10.5 rebounds, and six assists per game. The Mavericks have struggled offensively in the series, averaging only 93.5 points per game compared to 111.4 points in the Western Conference finals, and aim to improve in Wednesday's game to make the series 2-1.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1993 / Round 1 / Pick 3 / Golden State Warriors

Player 2- 2003 / Round 2 / Pick 51 / New Jersey Nets

Player 3- 2009 / Round 1 / Pick 2 / Memphis Grizzlies

Player 1- 2001 / Round 1 / Pick 1 / Atlanta Falcons

Player 2- 2014 / Round 1 / Pick 7 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player 3- 2016 / Round 1 / Pick 2 / Philadelphia Eagles

Anyone know what has happened on June 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 12th…

1991- The Chicago Bulls defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 108-101 in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, crowning the Bulls as NBA Champions. The win marked the first of three straight NBA titles from 1991-1993, and Chicago would go on to win three more from 1996-1998. Unsurprisingly, Michael Jordan was named Finals MVP, the first of six he would win in his career.

2002- The Los Angeles Lakers sweep the New Jersey Nets to win the NBA Finals. Los Angeles entered the postseason with a 58-24 record and the No.3 seed in the West, while New Jersey was 52-30 and the No.1 seed in the East. The victory was the third Finals victory in a row for the Lakers, and it was also the third year in a row that Shaquille O’Neal was named Finals MVP.

2017- The Golden State Warriors defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games to win the NBA Finals. It was the first time in NBA history that the same teams had met in the Finals in three consecutive seasons. Golden State and Cleveland would also meet in the Finals in 2018, resulting in a 4-0 series win for the Warriors.

NBA Answers

1. Penny Hardaway

2. Kyle Korver

3. Hasheem Thabeet

NFL Answers

1. Michael Vick

2. Mike Evans

3. Carson Wentz