In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

MLB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-9

Over/Under Predictions: 3-8-3

Run Line Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

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Four NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four matchups can be found below.

Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights

Model Predicts- Stars ML, OVER 5.5, Stars +1.5

The Dallas Stars and Las Vegas Golden Knights will continue their best-of-seven series on Saturday night, as both teams now head to Las Vegas, Nevada for Game 3.

Vegas has firm control over the series thus far, winning each of the first two games. Those wins now give the Golden Knights a perfect 5-0 record against the Stars this season when regular season wins are included, indicating that Vegas may have the upper hand despite being the lower seed.

Not much has gone Dallas’ way thus far, but our model projects the Stars to turn things around and pick up their first win of the series on the road. Let’s dive into why that is.

Dallas Stars

• Doing good job at containing Vegas despite losses

  • Held Golden Knights to 15 shots on goal in Game 1, 26 in Game 2

  • Surrendering 8.48 High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5 situations- 3rd best of any team in postseason

• Due to see positive regression on both ends of ice

  • Offense- GF/60 in 5-on-5 in series sits at 1.72, but xGF/60 is 2.52

  • Defense- GA/60 in 5-on-5 in series sits at 2.29, but xGA/60 is 1.59

• Expected goalie- Jake Oettinger

  • .867 Save % in 5-on-5 during postseason. Ranks 12th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -1.0

Vega Golden Knights

• Come back home with 2-0 series lead

  • Won Game one 4-3, won Game two 3-1

  • Outshot 49-41 by Dallas through two games

• Have not lost to Stars this season, but are over performing in those games

  • Posted 3.24 GF/60 in 5-on-5 vs Stars in three regular season games, but xGF/60 was just 1.02

  • Generating very little pressure on net- 8.92 HDCF/60 in 5-on-5 in three regular season games

• Expected goalie- Logan Thompson

  • .923 Save % in 5-on-5 during postseason. Ranks second in GSAx (+2.4)

What’s the Play?

On the surface it appears that Vegas has a significant advantage over Dallas, but in reality the Golden Knights are severely over performing in this series as well as in the regular season series. As a result, we’ll back the Stars to get their first win in the series tonight.

One thing the Stars have done well in all five games against Dallas this season is keep pressure to a minimum, and that has led to the very low xGA/60 number in 5-on-5 situations, a great indicator of a stellar defense. However, Jake Oettinger has oftentimes come up short in net and been the reason for the many losses, as evidenced by surrendering four goals on just 15 shots faced in Game 1.

Oettinger needs to clean things up, and if he does then several metrics indicate that Dallas can jump into the drivers seat in this series. It’s certainly a risk, but we’ll back Dallas to win here, as regression is bound to kick in at some point for Vegas.

The Play: Stars ML (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Florida Panthers- 3-0 overall in postseason, 26-11-4 as away team in regular season

• Boston Bruins- 2-1 overall in postseason, 23-9-9 as away team in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Over is 2-1 in postseason, 44-35-3 in regular season

• Dallas Stars- Over is 1-1 in postseason, 42-39-1 in regular season

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Lightning- Puck line is 2-1 in postseason 43-49 in regular season

💪 Oilers dominate Kings to take 2-1 series lead. Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman each scored twice, with Draisaitl adding an assist, as the Edmonton Oilers dominated the Los Angeles Kings 6-1 in Game 3 of their playoff series, taking a 2-1 lead. Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins contributed three points each, with McDavid becoming the first player since Wayne Gretzky in 1987 to tally at least eight assists in the first three games of a playoff series. Evander Kane also had a goal and an assist, and Stuart Skinner made 27 saves in the win, while Drew Doughty scored the lone goal for the Kings, who now trail 1-2 in the series.

🏒 Avalanche score five goals in third period to beat Jets. The Colorado Avalanche staged a remarkable comeback in Game 3, scoring five goals in the third period to defeat the Winnipeg Jets 6-2. Nathan MacKinnon and Valeri Nichushkin both scored power-play goals during this period, with Alexandar Georgiev making 22 saves to give the Avalanche a 2-1 lead in the series. The Jets initially led 2-1 in the final period, but Colorado's offensive explosion, including goals from Artturi Lehkonen and Ross Colton, turned the game around and secured the win.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What NBA player ranks first all-time in total playoff points, scoring 8,102 in his career?

Question #2- Two linebackers were selected within the top-nine picks of the 2000 NFL Draft, going to the Washington Redskins and Chicago Bears. LaVar Arrington was drafted by Washington, but who was drafted by Chicago?

Question #3- MLB pitcher Zack Greinke pitched for six teams in his MLB career. What team did he play for twice?

Anyone know what has happened on April 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 27th…

1952- American basketball legend George Gervin is born in Detroit, Michigan. Gervin, also known as “The IceMan”, was a prominent figure throughout his time in the ABA and NBA, where he played for the Virginia Squires, San Antonio Spurs, and Chicago Bulls. Gervin’s basketball career came to an end in 1990, one in which he was named an All-Star nine times.

1983- MLB legend Nolan Ryan records his 3,509th career strikeout. The milestone made Ryan the MLB’s strikeout king, as he surpassed Walter Johnson for the most strikeouts all-time. Ryan would go on to record 5,714 strikeouts in his career, which still stands as the most in MLB history.

2017- Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Garrett was drafted by the Cleveland Browns, a result of being named an All-American and First Team All-SEC in his final two collegiate seasons. Garrett still plays for the Browns, most recently winning the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award last season.

1. LeBron James

2. Brian Uhrlacher

3. Kansas City Royals