In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 8-7

Run Line Predictions: 10-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Nine MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups can be found below.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Giants ML, OVER 9, Nationals +1.5

The San Francisco Giants will continue their seven-game road trip on Monday, with the next stop coming in Washington D.C. to take on the Nationals.

The Giants started off their long road trip on a high note, winning two of three games in Cincinnati, including a no-hitter by Blake Snell on Friday night. Washington also had tons of success over the weekend, taking two of three games at home against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Both of these teams are playing solid baseball at the moment, but our model projects the Giants to win tonight’s matchup in a high-scoring affair Let’s dive into why that is.

San Francisco Giants

• Enter matchup as one of hottest teams in MLB

  • Have won seven of last nine games

  • Own +21 run differential in that time

• Offense has been catalyst for recent success

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (130), 8th in BABIP (.320), and 7th in OPS (.820) across last nine games

  • Only problem is strikeouts- 26.8% Strikeout rate in that span is bottom-six in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Logan Webb

  • Due for regression- 3.49 ERA vs 4.22 xERA

Washington Nationals

• Won weekend series vs Brewers

  • Lost Game 1 8-3, but outscored Milwaukee 6-4 in Game 2 and 4-3 in Game 3

  • Back-to-back wins ended five-game losing streak

• Enter this series hitting ball well

  • Own 115 wRC+, .325 BABIP, and .773 OPS across last three games

  • Have recorded 29 hits and are batting .296 as a team in that three-game span

• Starting pitcher- Patrick Corbin

  • Pitching to expectations- 5.88 ERA vs 5.84 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 1% of MLB in xBA (.310), bottom 4% in Hard Hit rate (47.0%)

What’s the Play?

Our model gives the over a 50.23% chance to hit in this matchup, which may cause some bettors to glance over that prediction. However, we agree with our model that the over is one of the best bets on tonight’s board.

Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in the MLB, but some underlying metrics aren’t in his favor. His xERA is 0.73 runs higher than his real ERA, and he is struggling immensely to avoid hard contact, where he ranks in the bottom 3% of MLB at 47.5%. Both of those factors point to more runs coming for Webb, and that can certainly happen tonight against a Nationals team that has found a rhythm at the plate.

Patrick Corbin is in a equally tough position though, as his high rates of contact put opposing teams in a position to light him up, as we saw the Diamondbacks do in his last start by scoring 11 runs in just 3.0 innings.

Both pitchers have some weaknesses, with hard contact being the largest concern, and both offenses enter this series with momentum. That is a recipe for an over.

The Play: Over 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 67-44 overall this season, 35-17 as the home team

• San Francisco Giants- 56-57 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 59-51-3 this season, 32-22-2 as the away team

• Washington Nationals- Over is 55-52-5 this season, 19-18-3 as a home underdog

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 63-49 this season, 22-18 as a home underdog

💪 Rays combine for three-hit shutout against Astros. Tyler Alexander and four other Rays pitchers combined for a three-hitter as Tampa Bay edged out the Houston Astros 1-0, with Brandon Lowe's RBI double in the third inning providing the game's only run. Alexander entered early, struck out five, and allowed just two hits, while the Astros managed just one hit after Yordan Alvarez's single in the sixth. The Rays have won seven of their last ten games and are tied with the Astros in the standings, both with a record of 57-54.

😬 White Sox continue record-setting pace after loss to Twins. The Chicago White Sox have tied the third-longest losing streak in MLB history by losing their 20th consecutive game in a 13-7 defeat to the Minnesota Twins. They are three losses away from matching the Modern Era record of 23 straight defeats set by the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. With a 0-16 record since the All-Star break, the White Sox are on pace to lose 124 games, potentially breaking the modern-day single-season record of 120 losses by the 1962 New York Mets.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Noah Lyles won the Olympic gold medal in the 100 meter dash on Sunday. Who was the last American to win the event at the Olympics, doing so in 2004?

Question #2- The Atlanta Hawks selected what power forward/center with the No.3 pick in the 2001 NBA Draft?

Question #3- Adrian Peterson and what other running back were the only two players to average more than 100.0 rush yards per game during the 2012 season?

Anyone know what has happened on August 5th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 5th…

2006- Former NFL quarterback Warren Moon becomes the first black quarterback to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Moon was inducted alongside several stars, including Troy Aikman, John Madden, Rayfield Wright, Harry Carson, and Reggie White. Moon began his Hall of Fame career in 1984 with the Houston Oilers, and also played for the Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, and Kansas City Chiefs.

2007- New York Mets pitcher Tom Glavine records his 300th career win. The milestone win came in a 8-3 win over the Chicago Cubs, a game in which Glavine surrendered six hits and two runs in 6.1 innings. Glavine became the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to reach 300 wins, and ended his career with 305.

2017- Jamaican star sprinter Usain Bolt runs his final individual race of his career. Bolt’s final individual performance on the track came at the IAAF World Championships in London, where he would run the 100 meter dash. Bolt ended the race in third place, with Americans Justin Gatlin and Christian Coleman taking the top two spots.

1. Justin Gatlin

2. Pau Gasol

3. Alfred Morris