In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-2

Over/Under Predictions: 4-1

Spread Predictions: 1-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Royals ML, OVER 8, Royals +1.5

The Kansas City Royals will begin a six-game road trip on Friday, with the first stop coming in New York to take on the Mets in a three-game series.

Kansas City enters tonight’s matchup as one of the best teams in baseball in the young 2024 season, posting a 9-4 record and riding a seven-game win streak. Meanwhile, New York has struggled quite a bit early on, winning just five of its first 12 games to begin the season.

Both of these teams have some momentum on their side after picking wins on Thursday, but our model predicts the Royals to be the team that continues to stay hot. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Kansas City Royals

• Enter today on seven-game win streak

  • Four wins over White Sox, three over Astros

  • +35 run differential in that span

• Arguably hottest team in MLB at the plate

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (117), 11th in BABIP (.300)

  • wRC+ has spiked to 152 over last three games. 28 runs scored and only 13.1% strikeout rate in that same span (FanGraphs)

• Starting pitcher- Michael Wacha

  • Has surrendered five hits, two walks, and three earned runs across 12.0 innings this season

  • Great strikeout pitcher thus far (31.0%), but high Hard Hit rate (40.7%) and Barrel rate (7.4%) are a concern

New York Mets

• Slow start to season, but starting to turn things around

  • Began season 0-5, but have gone 5-2 since

  • Just won two of three games vs Braves (+12 run differential in series)

• Offense is best in the MLB at the moment

  • 167 wRC+ (1st in MLB) and .363 BABIP (3rd in MLB) since April 8th

  • 13.1%Doing most of damage vs right-handed pitching in last three games- 163 wRC+, .333 BABIP, and 13.1% walk rate (FanGraphs)

• Staring pitcher- Luis Severino

  • Has surrendered 14 hits and eight runs (four earned) across 10.0 innings this season

  • Vulnerable to hard contact (42.4% Hard Hit rate), not generating swings and misses (21.6% Whiff rate)

What’s the Play?

Backing Kansas City as a road underdog is an enticing play given how dominant the Royals have been over the last week, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot for the over.

The Royals and Mets are the top-two offenses in the MLB over the course of the last three to four games, and tonight’s pitching matchups give both a chance to stay hot. Severino and Wacha each have an ERA below 3.60 this season, but both pitchers have been susceptible to hard contact and the offenses they face today have been excellent against right-handed pitching.

It’s tempting to take the Royals here, but this is a great opportunity for both teams to stay hot at the plate. We’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 8-4 overall this season, 4-2 as the home team

• Kansas City Royals- 9-4 overall this season, 7-0 in last seven games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Yankees- Under is 9-3-1 this season with average total of 8.23

• Washington Nationals- Over is 4-2 as the away team this season

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Toronto Blue Jays- Run line is 3-1 as a favorite this season

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 9-4 this season

💰 Ohtani’s former interpreter faces charges after reportedly stealing $16 million from Dodgers star. Ippei Mizuhara, former translator for Shohei Ohtani, faces charges of bank fraud, allegedly transferring over $16 million from Ohtani's accounts to settle debts with an illegal sports book. Mizuhara is accused of deceiving a financial institution and impersonating Ohtani to approve wire transfers. Ohtani, considered a victim, cooperated in the investigation, and MLB is awaiting the criminal case's resolution before deciding on further action.

🔄 Jordan Montgomery switches agents after signing with Diamondbacks. Jordan Montgomery, the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher, has switched agents from Scott Boras to Wasserman's Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock. Despite helping the Texas Rangers win the 2023 World Series, Montgomery signed a one-year, $25 million contract in late March, much lower than expected. If Montgomery performs well for the Diamondbacks, he may aim for free agency again next offseason, with plans to debut for Arizona on April 19 after starting at Triple-A.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two quarterbacks were drafted in the top-four of the 2004 NFL Draft, and would eventually be traded for one another. Who were those players?

Question #2- The Chicago Cubs defeated what team in seven games to win the 2106 World Series?

Question #3- Former Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton and what other quarterback led the NFL in pick sixes during the 2012 season, each throwing four?

Anyone know what has happened on April 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 12th…

1992- The lowest-scoring NBA game is played between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks. Detroit managed to win the game by scoring just 71 points, holding New York to just 62 points across four quarters. Pistons guard Joe Dumars led all scorers with 20 points.

1992- Boston Red Sox pitcher throws a no-hitter against the Cleveland Indians. Young recorded the no-hitter by himself, recording six strikeouts and seven walks along the way. However, Boston ended up losing the game by a score of 2-1, with Cleveland scoring one run on a throwing error and another on a fielder’s choice.

2015- American golfer Jordan Spieth wins the 79th US Masters Tournament. Spieth led wire-to-wire to win the green jacket, taking down runner-ups Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose by four strokes. It was the first victory for Spieth at a major championship in his career.

1. Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers

2. Cleveland Indians

3. Matthew Stafford