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One Best Bet Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NHL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 7-1

Over/Under Predictions: 4-4

Spread Predictions: 5-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

NHL🏒

Carolina Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

11 NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes
Model Predicts- Hurricanes ML, UNDER 6, Flyers +1.5

The Philadelphia Flyers will hit the road for just one game on Thursday, making the journey south to Raleigh, North Carolina to take on the Hurricanes.

Philadelphia enters tonight’s matchup treading water, posting a 5-4-1 record in the last ten games following a stellar 4-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Carolina is asserting its dominance on a nightly basis, posting a 4-0 record in the last four games.

Philadelphia’s defense and goaltending has looked quite vulnerable recently, a big reason why our model expects Carolina to pick up a win here. Now, let’s dive into our best bet for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers
  • Fresh off against Maple Leafs

    • Won game 4-3. Held Toronto scoreless through two periods.

  • However, that level of defense has not always made an appearance

    • Have surrendered 15 goals in the last three games

    • Rank 30th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations (3.09) and surrendering most high-danger scoring chances in 5-on-5 (17.56) in that time

  • Expected goalie- Samuel Ersson

    • .906 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 29th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +3.8

Carolina Hurricanes
  • Enter tonight on four-game win streak

    • Wins over Panthers, Maple Leafs, Senators, and Islanders

    • Outscoring opponents 20-7 in that time

  • Defense has been elite during win streak

    • Own xGA/60 in 5-on-5 of 2.12. Slightly lower than GA/60 on 2.16

    • Allowing very little pressure on net- surrendering 9.55 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

  • Expected goalie- Frederik Andersen

    • .918 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 28th in GSAx (+4.6)

What’s the Play?

The Flyers’ weak defense is a concern tonight, but we agree with our model that this is a great spot to back the under.

Philadelphia and Carolina have squared off three times this season, with each game seeing five goals or fewer. Carolina’s red hot defense and Philadelphia’s ice cold offense, a group that ranks 32nd in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 over the last three games, will help keep the low-scoring trend going.

The Flyers are due for offensive regression, and it’s likely that happens tonight as Frederik Andersen has allowed just five pucks past him in his last four appearances. This has the chance to be a blowout win for the Canes, but we don’t think there will be enough offense to push this total over six.

The Play: Under 6 (+100)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Boston Bruins- 41-14-15 overall this season, 23-8-6 as the home team

  • Winnipeg Jets- 44-19-5 overall this season, 21-10-3 as the away team

  • New York Islanders- Over is 37-27-4 this season with average total of 6.31

  • Detroit Red Wings- Over is 39-30 overall this season with average total of 6.78

  • Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 44-24 this season

  • Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 41-28 this season

News Around the League

👍 Rempe says he will clean up hits following suspension. New York Rangers rookie Matt Rempe has vowed to be more cautious with his hits after receiving his first suspension for elbowing Jonas Siegenthaler of the New Jersey Devils in the head. Despite facing criticism for previous hits, Rempe insists that the incident was a learning experience, emphasizing the need for better body control and awareness on the ice. Although he plans to maintain his aggressive style of play, Rempe intends to ensure that his hits are clean and within the rules to avoid causing harm to other players.

🐺 Coyotes likely staying in Arizona for 2024-25 season. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly indicated that the league likely wouldn't have enough time to move the Arizona Coyotes for the 2024-25 season if owner Alex Meruelo doesn't win the upcoming land auction in June. The Coyotes' future in Arizona remains uncertain, with the organization exploring alternative arena options after their lease at Mullett Arena expired. Despite the challenges, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman expressed the league's commitment to the greater Phoenix area as a good market for NHL hockey.

Trivia Section🧠

Houston Astros celebrate winning 2017 World Series (Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What team did the Houston Astros beat to win the 2017 World Series?

Question #2- Three AFC South teams have never won a Super Bowl. Can you name all three?

Question #3- Who led the NBA in assists per game during the 2010-11 season, averaging 11.4?

On This Day in History🗓

Jerry Pate celebrates winning the 1982 Players Championship (Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on March 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On March 21st…

1973- Montreal Canadiens star Frank Mahovlich scores his 500th career goal. Mahovlich reached the milestone in a game against the Vancouver Canucks, making him just the fifth player in NHL history to reach the 500 goal mark. Mahovlich would end his career with 533 goals, ranking him 36th on the all-time list.

1982- Jerry Pate wins the PGA Tour’s Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Pate shot a stellar 67 final round to clinch the title, defeating Scott Simpson and Brad Bryant by two strokes. Pate then gave the viewers one of the best golf celebrations ever, as he jumped into a water hazard to celebrate the win.

1994- Wayne Gretzky ties the NHL record for career goals. Gretzky accomplished the milestone by scoring his 800th and 801st career goal against the San Jose Sharks, tying him with Gordie Howe on the all-time list. Gretzky would end his career with 894 goals, which still stands as the most in NHL history.

Trivia Answers

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers

  2. Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans

  3. Steve Nash