In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

MLB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-1

Over/Under Predictions: 3-1

Spread Predictions: 4-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Three NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

Model Predicts- Lakers ML, OVER 217, Lakers +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets will continue their best-of-seven series on Monday, taking the series back to Denver, Colorado for Game 5.

Denver returns home after two games in Los Angeles with a comfortable 3-1 lead over the Lakers, with the only loss coming in Game 4. That loss snapped an 11-game win streak over the Lakers, ending a dominant run for the Nuggets that included sweeping the Lakers last postseason.

Denver is now 11-1 in its last 12 games against Los Angeles, and our model expects the Nuggets to pick up their 12th win tonight in a relatively close game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Picked up first win of series on Saturday night

  • Beat Denver 119-108. Shot 52% overall and 31% from three

  • Four players scored 21 points or more in game

• Crushing Lakers in first half of games

  • Own +17.2 Net Rating in 1st half of games in this series

  • Averaging 58.3 points in first half while shooting 54.0%, compared to Denver’s 49.5 points on 40.2% shooting

• Injuries- Cam Reddish and Jalen Hood-Schifino are OUT, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Jarred Vanderbilt are questionable

Denver Nuggets

• Struggling to get off to hot start in many games

  • Own -26.7 Net Rating in first quarter of this series- ranks 15th amongst playoff teams

  • Luckily make up for it in second half- +24.9 Net Rating, averaging 59.3 points while shooting 52.2%

• Third quarter is where most of dominance is occurring

  • +37.1 Net Rating. Consists of 130.9 Offensive Rating and 93.8 Defensive Rating

  • Shooting 52.8% overall and 40.0% from three, while holding Lakers to shooting 43.4% overall and 28.3% from three

• Injuries- Jamal Murray and Reggie Jackson are questionable. Collin Gillespie and Vlatko Cancar are OUT

What’s the Play?

This series has truly been a tale of two halves, with the Lakers dominating the game through the first two quarters and the Nuggets taking over in the second half. However, we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the Lakers on the spread, despite the volatility that comes with the team.

The Lakers’ post-halftime struggles are a reasonable concern, but L.A. is still finding a way to stay within striking distance. Los Angeles has either won or lost by seven points or fewer in three of four games in this series, and that is largely due to the fact that the Lakers have only been outscored in the fourth quarter one time in four games. The third quarter is messy, but regrouping in the late stages has made many of these games manageable.

In our opinion, Denver’s sluggish starts are the bigger concern, as the Lakers posted the 12th-best second half Net Rating in the regular season and have proven to be efficient down the stretch. Additionally, the Nuggets could be without Jamal Murray tonight, who is a massive piece to Denver’s fourth quarter offense, an absence that opens the door for L.A to keep things close once again.

The Play: Lakers +7.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 60-25 overall this season, 3-0 in postseason

• Denver Nuggets- 60-26 overall this season, 35-8 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over is 48-39-1 this season, 26-17 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 48-36-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS in postseason

• Los Angeles Lakers- 21-19 ATS as an underdog this season

🧹 Timberwolves bring out the brooms against the Suns. The Minnesota Timberwolves completed a historic four-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns with a 122-116 victory on Sunday night, advancing to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2003-04, and is the first sweep in Timberwolves franchise history. Star guard Anthony Edwards delivered an impressive performance in Game 4, scoring 40 points, grabbing nine rebounds, and dishing out six assists, while Karl-Anthony Towns also had a standout game with 28 points.

🏆 OKC’s Daigneault wins Coach of the Year award. Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault was awarded the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year. Daigneault faced stiff competition to claim the honor, beating out finalists Chris Finch of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Jamahl Mosley of the Orlando Magic. Daigneault, 39, guided the Thunder to a remarkable 57-25 record and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the team's second time securing the top spot since moving to Oklahoma City.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What NBA player has recorded the most triple doubles in league history, collecting 199 in his career?

Question #2- Derek Carr, Davante Adams, and Paul George were all star athletes at what university?

Question #3- The Duke vs North Carolina basketball rivalry is considered the best in college basketball. Which school has won more games in the rivalry series?

Anyone know what has happened on April 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 29th…

1981- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton records his 3,000th career strikeout. Carlton reached the milestone in the first inning of a 6-2 win over the Montreal Expos, making him the first lefty in MLB history to do so. The Phillies legend ended his career with 4,136 strikeouts, which currently ranks fourth on the all-time list.

1986- Boston Red Sox pitcher Roger Clemens records 20 strikeouts in a game. The legendary performance came against the Seattle Mariners, a game in which Boston won 3-1. Clemens’ 20 strikeouts are tied with Max Scherzer and Kerry Wood for the most in a single game, and Clemens is the only player to reach the milestone twice in his career.

2006- North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams is selected with the No.1 pick in the NFL Draft. Williams was drafted by the Houston Texans, a result of being named an All-American in his final collegiate season. Williams played for the Texans until 2011, and also played for the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

1. Russell Westbrook

2. Fresno State University

3. North Carolina