In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-3

Over/Under Predictions: 5-3

Run Line Predictions: 6-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

💸 Zeke, Dalvin Cook each find new home. Free agent running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook and free agents no more. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Elliott will be taking his talents to the New England Patriots on a one-year, $6 million deal, while Cook will head to the Big Apple to join Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets on one year, $8.6 million deal. Both were arguably the two of the top free agents left on the market, and now the two multi-time Pro Bowlers will go head-to-head in a battle for the AFC East title.

💰 Zack Martin gets new deal from Dallas. Despite Jerry Jones initially standing firm, the Cowboys and Zack Martin have managed to reach an agreement on a new contract. As per the updated terms, Martin will receive salaries exceeding $18 million in both 2023 and 2024, a substantial increase from his previous earnings of $13.5 million for this year and $14 million for the next. Martin had been absent from Cowboys camp as he aimed to renegotiate his contract, but with the deal finalized, Martin will rejoin his teammates in training camp and participate in preparations for their Week 1 game against the Giants.

👎 A troubling end to “The Blind Side” may be on the way. Michael Oher, a former NFL left tackle and first-round pick, has reportedly submitted legal documents asserting that the Tuohy family, famous from "The Blind Side," did not adopt him as claimed, but instead obtained a conservatorship to financially benefit from him. The 18-page petition alleges that Oher was deceived into signing an authorization that granted the Tuohys the ability to make deals on his behalf. Oher further contends that the Tuohys exploited this authority to sell movie rights and gain millions, while he received no compensation. Per Oher’s attorney, the former tackle’s relationship with the Tuohy family began to decline after the release of “The Blind Side”, and now is “permanently fractured”.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 8, Orioles +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres will continue their three-game series on Tuesday night on the West Coast.

Baltimore got the best of San Diego in Game 1, winning by a score of 4-1. The Padres were held to just four hits in the matchup compared to Baltimore’s nine, a concerning trend for a team that is seeing its playoff hopes start to drift away.

Our model predicted the orioles to win yesterday’s matchup as a road underdog, and it likes Baltimore to snag its second consecutive victory tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and where the model sees value in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles picked up their 74th win of the season last night against Yu Darvish and the Padres, helping maintain their three-game lead in the AL East.

The victory also pushed Baltimore’s record in the month of August to 9-4, a sign that this team is rolling with just under two months to go in the regular season.

The recent stretch of victories can be accredited to a multitude of things, but Baltimore’s consistency at the plate this month has played a large factor. The O’s haven’t done a ton of damage in the hitting department since August 1st, but Baltimore ranks in the top half of the MLB in wRC+ (105), BABIP (.316), and OPS (.748), showing that this team is still rather effective despite not putting up huge numbers.

Baltimore’s depth on the mound has also given the Orioles a boost, with the starters posting a 3.62 ERA and 3.81 xFIP, while the bullpen’s ERA comes in even lower at 2.70. Jack Flaherty (8-7 record, 4.33 ERA) will be called upon tonight to keep those numbers where they are.

Flaherty has been a solid piece in the rotation since being acquired from St. Louis at the trade deadline, posting a 3.27 ERA, 3.18 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP across two starts. If we extend the timeline back even further to July 1st, Flaherty has seen his ERA drop to 3.10, showing that the 27-year-old has been on an upward trajectory for awhile now.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have picked a horrible time to start losing games. Last season’s National League runner-up is 2-8 in its last ten games and is now 56-63 on the season, putting San Diego 16 games back of the Dodgers in the AL West and 6.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Things started to go downhill following and 8-2 loss to the Dodgers on August 6th. San Diego is just 1-7 since then, largely because the bats have gone ice cold. Per FanGraphs, the Padres rank 27th in wRC+ (78), 21st in BABIP (.275), and have posted a 24.5% strikeout rate, further proving that this team is having struggles up and down the lineup.

As a result, we’ve seen San Diego score just 25 runs in that eight-game stretch, with 17 coming in two games. Meanwhile, their opponents have scored 46 runs in that time, a differential that simply isn’t good enough for one of the most talented teams in baseball.

On the bright side, Michael Wacha (8-2 record, 2.84 ERA) will be making his return to the mound today after a month and a half long hiatus. However, his return should be approached with some caution.

Wacha’s 2.84 ERA is excellent, but his 4.20 xERA and 4.63 xFIP show that regression is on the horizon. While Wacha does do a good job at limiting hard contact, the contact he does allow often comes in bunches, as evidenced by ranking in the bottom 36% of the majors in Whiff and Strikeout rate, and tallying just 7.67 strikeouts per nine innings.

What’s the Play?

Baltimore is by far the better team in this matchup, once again bringing into question why they are the underdog. Our model once again sees value on the O’s money line though, so we feel comfortable going back to them for the second night in a row.

Wacha’s surface-level numbers are excellent, but several underlying metrics show he has been performing well above where he should be. Factor in that he has not pitched since June 1st and San Diego’s inability to hit the baseball, and the Padres have a recipe for another long night.

Flaherty is trending in a similar direction as last night’s starter, Grayson Rodriguez, who we saw allow just three hits and one run across seven innings. Both guys have high season-long ERA’s due to early struggles, but have improved significantly over the last month and change and that doesn’t appear to be factored into this line.

Our model thinks the Orioles should once again be slight favorites here with odds of -112, so we’ll gladly take the second-best team in baseball at +120.

The Play: Orioles ML (+120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 68-52 overall this season, 35-26 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- 71-48 overall this season, 41-20 as the home team, 8-2 in last ten games

• Baltimore Orioles- 74-45 overall this season, 25-18 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 62-51-5 this season, 34-22-4 as the home team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 58-53-8 this season, 34-21-6 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 62-53-4 this season, 32-25-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 65-54 overall this season, 62-48 as an underdog

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 71-48 overall this season, 30-19 as a home favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😳 Wander Franco placed on restricted list. The Tampa Bay Rays have declared that Wander Franco will enter the restricted list and temporarily depart from the team during the ongoing road trip due to social media content involving the 22-year-old shortstop. Following the emergence of the pertinent social media posts on Sunday, the Rays issued a statement subsequent to their game against the Cleveland Guardians, indicating their earnest consideration of the situation. The team maintains close communication with Major League Baseball during its diligent investigation of Franco, who has played a key role in Tampa Bay’s success this season.

📈 Mike Trout progressing through rehab. Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout mentioned on Monday that he's making gradual improvements from a fractured left hamate bone that has sidelined him since July 3. Despite the progress, he didn't specify a definite return date, explaining that his comeback hinges on his ability to tolerate the discomfort. Trout recently began practicing swings against a hitting machine, albeit not at maximum speed, and his next step involves facing live pitching, which could occur within a few days according to Angels manager Phil Nevin. Trout’s return would be a welcome one, as the Angels currently trail the Rangers by 12.5 games in the AL West.

😬 The James Harden soap opera gets another episode. James Harden has criticized Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey, stating that he will not associate with any organization involving Morey due to his belief that Morey is dishonest. Harden's discontent with Morey arises from a lack of a long-term contract offer, leading to the former MVP’s trade request earlier this summer after picking up his player option. Despite the reported end of trade discussions involving Harden, the 76ers plan to have him return for training camp before the upcoming season. The team's efforts to trade Harden, particularly to his preferred destination with the LA Clippers, were unsuccessful due to the high asking price.

👨‍🏫 Peyton Manning is returning to the classroom. Peyton Manning, renowned for his five NFL MVP awards and Pro Football Hall of Fame induction, assumes a new role as Professor Manning. The University of Tennessee disclosed that Manning will serve as a professor of practice within the College of Communication and Information beginning this fall, with the goal of enhancing students’ readiness for forthcoming professional pursuits. Having earned his degree in speech communication from the university in 1997, Manning expressed that his student experience furnished him with fundamental skills and techniques he still applies extensively.

🏒 Another Boston Bruins center calls it a career. David Krejci, a prominent figure for the Boston Bruins, officially retired from the NHL on Monday. The decision comes on the heels of the retirement of franchise leader Patrice Bergeron, leaving Boston without their primary two centers for the upcoming season. Krejci, aged 37, returned to North America last year for his final NHL season after a brief hiatus playing in his native Czechia, and over his 16-year NHL career amassed 871 points in 1,192 games and contributed to Boston's 2011 Stanley Cup victory.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to the 2012 NBA Finals. We’ve provided you with the starting lineup of the 2012 NBA Champion Miami Heat, and it is your job to guess which college (or high school) each player attended before playing in the NBA.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on August 15th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 15th…

1990- Mark McGwire becomes to the first player in MLB history to hit 30 home runs in each of his first four seasons in the major leagues. McGwire took the league by storm as a rookie in 1987, launching 49 homers in 151 games. His power would diminish over the next three seasons, but the first baseman finished those seasons with 32, 33, and 39 dingers, respectively. McGwire would end his career with 583 home runs, which places him 11th on the all-time list.

1993- Texas Rangers pitcher Nolan Ryan picks up his 324th and final win of his career in a 4-1 victory over the Cleveland Indians. The 46-year-old strung together a solid outing given his age, throwing 83 pitches and allowing just two hits and one earned runs across 7.0 innings. Ryan’s career would come to an end at the conclusion of the 1993 season, one in which he collected 324 wins and 5,714 strikeouts across 27 years.

2012- Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez becomes the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to throw a perfect game in a 1-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. King Felix would record 12 strikeouts and zero walks along the way, further highlighting his dominance on the mound that day in what became the fourth no-hitter in Mariners history. Hernandez would play for Seattle his entire 15-year MLB career, and was indicted into the Mariners Hall of Fame over the weekend.

Mario Chalmers- Kansas

Dwyane Wade- Marquette

LeBron James- St. Vincent St. Mary High School

Shane Battier- Duke

Chris Bosh- Georgia Tech