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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 3-10-2

Run Line Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Seven MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all seven matchups can be found below.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Milwaukee Brewers

Model Predicts- Brewers ML, UNDER 8.5, Brewers +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to continue their six-game road trip on Monday, with the next stop coming in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to battle the Brewers in a three-game series.

Toronto’s road trip has gotten off to a solid start, with the Blue Jays snagging two victories against the Oakland Athletics over the weekend. The Blue Jays have now emerged victorious in four of their last five contests, pushing their season record to 32-33, while Milwaukee is just 2-3 in its last five but still sits atop the NL Central division with a 38-27 record.

Sportsbooks are essentially making this game a coin flip, but our model sees value on the Brewers as well as the total tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Fresh off series win over Athletics

  • Outscored 2-1 in Game 1, but outscored Oakland 13-4 over next two games

  • Now 4-1 in last five games with +10 run differential

• Sub .500 record has been result of offensive regression

  • 2023- 107 wRC+ (7th), .301 BABIP (13th), .745 OPS (11th)

  • 2024- 97 wRC+ (16th), .270 BABIP (29th), .679 OPS (21st)

• Starting pitcher- Jose Berrios

  • Due for sizable regression- 2.80 ERA vs 4.41 xERA

  • Has seen strikeout rate drop 4.6% from 2023. Ranks in bottom 22% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (44.3%) and xBA (.268)

Milwaukee Brewers

• Coming off series win over Tigers

  • Lost Game 3 of series 10-2, but outscored Detroit 10-0 in Game 1 and 5-4 in Game 2

• Team is 4-4 in June, and struggling to get much going at plate

  • Rank 24th in wRC+ (80), 26th in OPS (.622), and 8th in BABIP (.312)

  • 29 runs scored since June 1st- ranks 23rd in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Colin Rea

  • Due for sizable regression- 3.53 ERA vs 5.56 xERA

  • Often pitching to contact- Ranks in bottom 17% of MLB in Strikeout rate (15.8%), Whiff rate (17.9%), and Barrel rate (10.0%)

What’s the Play?

Toronto has looked like the better team thus far in June, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back Milwaukee as a slight home favorite.

The battle on the mound this evening between Berrios and Rea is an interesting one. Both pitchers have seen a significant decline in their strikeout rates from 2023 and surrender loads of contact, each ranking in the bottom 18% in Whiff rate, putting both offenses in a position to score in bunches. However, despite a recent dry spell at the plate, Milwaukee is in a far better position to capitalize on that opportunity, as the Brewers rank 6th in wRC+, 1st in BABIP, and 6th in OPS this season (FanGraphs).

Additionally, Toronto’s bullpen was utilized heavily in yesterday’s extra innings win over Oakland, a game in which six Blue Jays relievers were called upon, likely making the bullpen thin for tonight’s matchup.

We think it’s likely Milwaukee gets to Berrios today, and then stack on the runs against a bullpen with some tired arms. As a result, we’ll take the Brewers on the money line.

The Play: Brewers ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Royals- 39-27 overall this season, 10-7 as a home underdog

• Milwaukee Brewers- 38-27 overall this season, 18-10 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 35-29-1 this season, 19-15 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- Over is 35-33-1 this season, 19-15-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 40-26 this season, 11-6 as a home underdog

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Mets beat Phillies to split London Series. Catcher Luis Torrens turned Nick Castellanos' bases-loaded slow roller into a game-ending double play, securing the New York Mets' 6-5 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies for a split of their two-game London Series. The Mets rallied from a 4-3 deficit in the ninth inning, with key contributions from Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, and a run-scoring passed ball. Reed Garrett allowed two batters to reach, and despite Bryce Harper loading the bases, Torrens' quick play ended the game, giving Drew Smith his second save.

💪 Yankees use power to post comeback win over Dodgers. Trent Grisham hit a decisive three-run homer to lead the New York Yankees to a 6-4 comeback victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, avoiding a series sweep in a potential World Series preview. Aaron Judge and Oswaldo Cabrera also homered, with Judge raising his average to .305 and hitting his 24th home run. Luis Gil and Clay Holmes contributed strong pitching performances, while the Dodgers' Teoscar Hernández had an impressive series with three home runs, including one in the sixth inning that briefly gave the Dodgers a lead.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1997 / Round 1 / Pick 1 / San Antonio Spurs

Player 2- 2011 / Round 1 / Pick 15 / Indiana Pacers

Player 3 - 2015 / Round 2 / Pick 46 / Milwaukee Bucks

Player 1- 2001 / Round 3 / Pick 74 / Carolina Panthers

Player 2- 2011 / Round 6 / Pick 180 / Baltimore Ravens

Player 3- 2013 / Round 3 / Pick 88 / Philadelphia Eagles

Anyone know what has happened on June 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 10th…

1952- Chicago White Sox outfielder Sam Mele records six RBIs in one inning in a 15-4 victory over the Philadelphia A’s. Mele was the sixth player in MLB history to accomplish the feat, and now there have been 22 players to record six RBIs in one inning since 1900.

1981- Pete Rose ties Stan Musial’s NL record for hits with 3,630. At the time Rose ranked third in MLB history in hits, but by the time his career was over Rose would sit at the top of the all-time hits list with 4,256. That is 67 more hits more than Ty Cobb in second, the only two players in MLB history to cross the 4,000 mark.

1981- England’s Sebastian Coe sets the 800 meter world record in Florence, Italy with a time of 1:41.73. Coe was one of the best middle distance runners the world has ever seen, winning four Olympic medals in his career, two of which were gold. However, Coe’s world record has been broken by two other people since 1981, with Kenya’s David Rudisha holding the current world record at 1:40.91.

1. NBA Answers

   1. Tim Duncan

   2. Kawhi Leonard

   3. Norman Powell

2. NFL Answers

   1. Steve Smith

   2. Tyrod Taylor

   3. Nick Foles