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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Model Predicts- Timberwolves ML, OVER 208, Timberwolves -4

The Dallas Mavericks will make the journey north to Minneapolis, Minnesota on Wednesday, taking on the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

Dallas reached this point by defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in Round 1 and the Oklahoma City Thunder in Round 2, taking down both teams in six games. Meanwhile, Minnesota had no problems sending the Phoenix Suns packing in Round 1, beating the Suns in a 4-0 sweep, but were pushed to brink by the Nuggets in Round 2 before taking home the win in Game 7.

Not much separates these two teams at this point in the season, but our model projects Minnesota to cover the spread as a home favorite tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Dallas Mavericks

• Beat Clippers and Thunder to make Western Conference Finals

  • Both series tied 2-2. Dallas won Games 5 and 6 in both to close it out

  • Posted +6.4 Net Rating vs Clippers, but just +0.2 Net Rating vs Thunder

• Offensive production plummeted overall from Rounds 1 and 2, but were saved by three-point efficiency

  • Vs Clippers- 115.9 Offensive Rating. Shot 46.5% from floor and 33.5% from three

  • Vs Thunder- 112.0 Offensive Rating. Shot 45.5% from floor but 39.7% from three

• Injuries- Luka Doncic is questionable. Maxi Kleber, Greg Brown, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are OUT

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Cruised through Round 1, but faced trouble in Round 2

  • Beat Suns in four games. +13.9 Net Rating in series

  • Beat Nuggets in seven games after being down 3-2 in series. +5.3 Net Rating in series

• Defense has been key to success all season long

  • Regular season- Ranked 1st in Defensive Rating (108.4). Opponents shot 45.0% overall and 35.4% from three

  • Playoffs- Own 107.6 Defensive Rating. Opponents shooting 45.7% overall and 35.7% from three

• Injuries- No players listed on injury report

What’s the Play?

Both Dallas and Minnesota have had success thus far, but we agree with our model that the Timberwolves are in position to cover the spread in Game 1.

Dallas survived the second round against Oklahoma City because of its efficiency shooting the three pointer. As previously mentioned, the Mavericks shot 39.7% from three in Round 2, a 6.2% spike from Round 1 and 2.8% spike from their regular season three-point percentage of 36.9%. We should expect that efficiency to come back down to Earth in this series, as Minnesota has held opponents to shooting under 36.0% from three in the regular and postseason.

Additionally, Minnesota took care of Dallas rather easily in the regular season, posting a 3-1 record and +13.3 Net Rating across four games. The Timberwolves were clearly tough to crack then, and we agree with our model that that will be the case once again in Game 1.

The Play: Timberwolves -4 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 64-29 overall this season, 33-13 as the home team, and 3-1 against the Mavericks

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Timberwolves- Over is 47-45-1 this season, 6-5 in postseason

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 48-43-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 8-3 ATS in postseason

☘️ Celtics survive Game 1, take down Pacers in overtime. The Celtics narrowly won their opening game of the Eastern Conference finals against the Indiana Pacers, rallying in overtime for a 133-128 victory. Jayson Tatum led the team with 36 points, including 10 in overtime, while Jaylen Brown's clutch 3-pointer with 6.1 seconds left in regulation tied the game. Despite the Pacers' strong performance and Tyrese Haliburton's 25 points, Boston's defense and key plays in the final moments secured the win, setting the stage for Game 2 set on Thursday.

🏆 Gobert, Wembanyama highlight All-Defense team. Minnesota Timberwolves' big man Rudy Gobert and San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama were named to the NBA's All-Defensive first team, marking the first time the selections had no positional requirements. Gobert, a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, led the votes with 99 first-team nods, while Wembanyama became the first rookie ever to be selected for the first team, leading the league with 3.6 blocks per game. Miami Heat's Bam Adebayo also made the first team for the first time after four consecutive second-team selections.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Of the 253 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, 10 were quarterbacks. Who was the first quarterback selected, going second overall to the Chicago Bears?

Question #2- The Boston Red Sox swept the St. Louis Cardinals in four games to win the 2004 World Series. Who was named the World Series MVP?

Question #3- The Los Angeles Lakers have won the most NBA titles since the 1999-2000 season. How many have they won in that span?

Anyone know what has happened on May 22nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 22nd…

1943- American baseball pitcher Tommy John is born in Terre Haute, Indiana. John played in the MLB for an incredible 26 seasons, suiting up for the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, California Angels, and Oakland Athletics. He would end his MLB career with 288 wins, which ranks 26th in MLB history.

2012- The Los Angeles Kings beat the Arizona Coyotes in the NHL’s Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles took down Arizona in five games, advancing the Kings to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1993 and making them the second team in NHL history to eliminate the top- three seeds in the postseason. The Kings went on to beat the New Jersey Devils in six games in the Stanley Cup Final.

2022- Justin Thomas wins the PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club. Thomas finished with a 72-hole score of 5-under par, tying with Will Zalatoris. Thomas then beat Zalatoris in a three-hole playoff, giving him his second PGA Championship victory.

1. Mitchell Trubisky

2. Manny Ramirez

3. 6