Back New Orleans on the Road

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 8-4

Spread Predictions: 9-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our models predictions for that matchup can be found below.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

Model Predicts- Chiefs ML, OVER 43, Saints +5.5

The New Orleans Saints will hit the road for the second consecutive week on Monday, taking their talents to Kansas City, Missouri to battle the Chiefs.

New Orleans enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of a two-game losing streak, with both losses coming to NFC opponents in the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 this season, most recently beating a division rival in the Los Angeles Chargers.

Our model projects the Chiefs to pick up their fifth win of the season tonight, but it also believes the Saints will keep the deficit manageable. Let’s dive into why that is.

New Orleans Saints

• Enter Week 5 on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Eagles, one loss to Falcons. Comes after beating Panthers and Cowboys to start season

  • Lost both games by three points or less

• Offense has been very efficient through four weeks

  • Rank 5th in EPA/play, 10th in success rate

  • Rushing offense has been strongest part- run ball on 56.79% of plays (1st in NFL). Rank 4th in EPA/rush

• Defense has been just as strong as offense

  • Rank 5th in both opponent EPA/play and opponent success rate

  • Holding opponents to 17.5 points/game (6th in NFL)

Kansas City Chiefs

• Have yet to lose a game this season

  • Wins over Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, and Chargers

  • Own +20 point differential in that span

• Offense has been efficient, but is experiencing tons of injuries

  • Rank 11th in EPA/play, 4th in success rate. Averaging 338.5 yards/game (16th in NFL)

  • Skill position players injured- Marquise Brown (OUT), Rashee Rice (OUT), Isiah Pacheco (OUT), Mecole Hardman (Questionable)

• Defense much better against the run than the pass

  • Holding opponents to 3.8 yards/play, rank 13th in opponent rushing success rate

  • Rank 21st in opponent dropback success rate, 25th in opponent yards/completion (10.7)

What’s the Play?

New Orleans and Kansas City are trending in opposite directions in the standings, but we agree with our model to back the Saints as a road underdog in this spot.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense rank highly in many efficiency metrics, but Kansas City’s offensive attack isn’t as high-powered as we are used to seeing. For one thing, Mahomes ranks 33rd in the NFL in air yards this season (5.4), showing a hesitancy to attack downfield, and that number is likely to remain that way with three of Mahomes’ top-four pass catchers being listed as out or questionable for this matchup.

Additionally, the Chiefs have not been good at putting teams away this season, winning all four games by seven points or fewer. That benefits the Saints in this spot, as New Orleans has either blown teams out or been in tightly contested games.

The Saints have looked sluggish over the last two weeks, but New Orleans has proven it has the offensive firepower and defensive talent necessary to keep the deficit manageable in this matchup. As a result, we’ll back the Saints on the spread here.

The Play: Saints +5.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Chiefs- 4-0 overall this season, 16-5 as the home team since 2022

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New Orleans Saints- Over is 3-1 this season with average total of 49.25

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New Orleans Saints- 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS as an underdog

💪 Tucker, Henry come up big for Ravens in win over Bengals. Justin Tucker kicked a 24-yard field goal in overtime to give the Baltimore Ravens a 41-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals after a missed 53-yard attempt by Cincinnati. Derrick Henry's 51-yard run set up the game-winning field goal after a back-and-forth offensive battle where Lamar Jackson threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns, while Joe Burrow tossed a career-high five touchdown passes. Despite Burrow's performance, the Ravens managed to force overtime with Tucker's 56-yard field goal and eventually clinched the victory.

🎉 Cardinals complete comeback vs 49ers in bounce back performance. Kyler Murray's day started with a 50-yard touchdown run and ended with him leading the Arizona Cardinals into field goal range, where backup kicker Chad Ryland sealed the 24-23 comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals' defense stepped up with three second-half takeaways, including a game-clinching interception by Kyzir White. Despite a 23-10 halftime deficit, Murray's leadership, key plays from teammates like Marvin Harrison Jr., and solid rushing by James Conner helped the Cardinals secure a crucial victory after a tough loss the previous week.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Manhattan is one of the 5 boroughs of New York City, but it is also the name of a town in the midwest that is home to what university?

Question #2- Before Juwan Johnson played in the NFL, he played college football at two schools. Can you name both?

Question #3- The largest contract signed by an MLB player is worth $700 million. What player signed that contract?

Anyone know what has happened on October 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 7th…

1984- Chicago Bears legend Walter Payton surpasses Jim Brown to become the NFL’s all-time leading rusher. Payton accomplished the feat against the New Orleans Saints, a game in which he tallied 154 yards on the ground in a 20-7 victory. Payton would retire with 16,726 rushing yards, ranking him second on the all-time list.

1992- The Tampa Bay Lightning become the first expansion team in NHL history to win their opening game. Tampa Bay dominated in their first matchup in the league, defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 7-3. However, the wins were few and far between for the remainder of the season, with the Lightning ending the year with a 23-54-7 record.

2012- New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees connects with Devery Henderson for a touchdown pass in the saints 31-24 win over the San Diego Chargers. The TD pass marked the 49th consecutive game in which Brees threw a touchdown, breaking a record previously held by Johnny Unitas. Brees would extend that streak to 54 games, which remains the record today.

1. Kansas State

2. Penn State, Oregon

3. Shohei Ohtani

MLB Model Predictions⚾️