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In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • MLB Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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MLB⚾️

Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

11 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
Model Predicts- Brewers ML, OVER 8, Brewers -1.5

The Milwaukee Brewers will continue their nine-game road trip on Monday, with the next leg being a three-game series in Miami, Florida against the Marlins.

Milwaukee’s road trip got off to a rough start over the weekend, losing two of three games to the Houston Astros. However, despite those losses, the Brewers still own a 27-19 record and sit in first place in the AL Central, while the Marlins own a poor 15-33 record for the season.

Milwaukee has been several tiers above Miami this season, and our model expects the Brewers to win rather handily in a high-scoring affair this evening. Let’s dive into why that is.

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Enter today’s matchup off series loss to Astros

    • Lost series 2-1. -4 run differential in that span

    • Still playing solid baseball as of late- 6-4 record in last ten games

  • Hitting left-handers well this season, and even better in May

    • Season- 105 wRC+ (11th in MLB), .261 BABIP (26th), .715 OPS (12th)

    • Since May 1st- 142 wRC+ (4th), .300 BABIP (10th), 3rd in OPS (.856)

    • Face left-hander Ryan Weathers today

  • Starting pitcher- Joe Ross

    • Due to see some positive regression- 4.61 ERA vs 4.12 xERA

    • Vulnerable to hard contact (41.9% Hard Hit rate) and barrel (10.1% Barrel rate) this season

Miami Marlins
  • Enter series off series win against Mets

    • Took down New York 2-1 over weekend. +5 run differential in that span

  • Have gotten hot against right-handed pitchers

    • 104 wRC+, .284 BABIP, and .710 OPS against righties since May 1st

    • Displaying tons of power in those matchups- 16 home runs against righties in that span is fifth-most in MLB

    • Face right-hander Joe Ross today

  • Starting pitcher- Ryan Weathers

    • Due to see regression- 3.81 ERA vs 4.50 xERA

    • Pitching to contact this season- 17.9% strikeout rate ranks in bottom 22% of MLB. Ranks in bottom 40% in Chase and Whiff rates

What’s the Play?

It’s tough to know exactly how productive Miami is going to be at the plate on a daily basis, but we agree with our model that the Marlins can contribute enough offense alongside the Brewers to make this a high-scoring game.

Neither Ross nor Weathers is going to strikeout many opponents while on the mound, each ranking in the bottom 30% of the MLB. That isn’t always a problem, but it has proven to get both guys into some tough situations due to the amount of hard contact each surrenders, with Ross ranking in the bottom 28% of the MLB in Hard Hit rate and Weathers ranking in the bottom 14% in Average Exit Velocity allowed.

Additionally, Ross’ vulnerability to the barrel could make things even more difficult this evening against Miami, as the Marlins have been one of the best home run hitting teams in May.

Each pitcher will face an offense that has flourished this month in its matchup, with Milwaukee crushing left-handers and Miami posting above-average numbers against righties. Those factors should lead to plenty of runs this evening.

The Play: Over 8 (-120)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee Brewers- 27-19 overall this season, 15-10 as the away team

  • Baltimore Orioles- 29-15 overall this season, 12-5 as the away team

  • Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 28-17-1 this season, 14-11 as the away team

  • Miami Marlins- Over is 29-19 this season, 20-6 as the home team

  • Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 12-8 as an underdog this season

News Around the League

💪 Alek Manoah dominates mound to beat Rays. Daniel Vogelbach hit a home run and scored three runs, while Alek Manoah struck out seven over seven innings as the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-2 on Sunday. Alejandro Kirk reached base three times and drove in two runs, helping the Blue Jays snap a three-game losing streak. Manoah, who hadn't won since last August, limited the Rays to one hit and has not allowed an earned run in his last 14.0 innings.

👑 Royals sweep A’s, move 10 games over .500 mark. Brady Singer struck out nine, and Vinnie Pasquantino hit a three-run triple as the Kansas City Royals swept the Oakland Athletics with an 8-4 victory on Sunday. Singer, who now owns a 4-2 record, allowed one run over six innings, and the uting was the fifth this season in which he struck out six or more batters. Bobby Witt Jr. contributed a double, a triple, and two RBIs as well, while Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez each had two RBIs to help secure the Royals' third sweep of the season.

Trivia Section🧠

Jamaican track and field legend Usain Bolt (Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What American golfer holds the record for most major championships won, winning 18 in his career?

Question #2- Four NFL pass catchers recorded at least 1,300 receiving yards during the 2006 season, two of which were on the Indianapolis Colts. Who were those two players?

Question #3- Usain Bolt won eight Olympic medals in his career. How many of those medals were gold medals?

On This Day in History🗓

NBA legend Michael Jordan (Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on May 20th.. throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 20th…

1983- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton passes Walter Johnson on the MLB’s all-time strikeout list. Carlton reached the milestone in a 5-0 loss at the hands of the San Diego Padres, a game in which he pitched eight innings and surrendered four runs while striking out four opposing hitters. He would end his career with 4,136 strikeouts, the fourth-most in MLB history.

1988- Philadelphia Phillies legend Mike Schmidt hits a home run in a 4-3 loss to the San Diego Padres. The homer was the 535th hit by Schmidt in his career, moving him into eighth on the MLB’s all-time list. Schmidt would end his career with 548 home runs, currently ranking him 16th on the all-time list.

1991- Chicago Bulls star Michael Jordan is named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player. The honor was rewarded to Jordan after he posted 31.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.7 steals per game, leading the Bulls to a 61-21 record and the No.1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference. It was the second MVP of Jordan’s career, and he would go on to win three more before officially retiring.

Trivia Answers

  1. Jack Nicklaus

  2. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne

  3. 8