In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

☘️ Celtics trade Grant Williams to Mavericks in three-team deal. Boston Celtics forward Grant Williams is reportedly being traded to the Dallas Mavericks in a trade that also involves the San Antonio Spurs, per Shams Charania. San Antonio will receive Randy Bullock and the right to swap picks with Dallas in 2030, while both Boston and Dallas will receive two second round picks. Adrian Wojnarowski is also reporting that Williams, who is a restricted free agent, will sign a four-year, $53 million contract as part of the sign and trade, giving the forward a solid payday after averaging 8.0 points per game on 40% shooting from three the last two seasons.

✍️ Matisse Thybulle set to sign with Dallas. The Dallas Mavericks made it known that the franchise wants to improve its defensive presence yesterday, which involved putting in a three-year offer for Matisse Thybulle. The Portland Trail Blazers, Thybulle’s most recent team, will have the opportunity to match the terms of the deal and keep the defensive star on the roster. Thybulle, a two-time All-NBA Defensive team selection, made his way to Portland last season after being traded from the Philadelphia 76ers, averaging 7.4 points and 1.7 steals per game in 22 games with Portland.

🦵 Giannis Antetokounmpo undergoes knee surgery. Milwaukee Bucks star and two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo reportedly underwent surgery on his left knee earlier in the offseason. However, it does not appear that the surgery will keep the Greek Freak on the sideline very long, with Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin stating that he believes Antetokounmpo will be ready for training camp after the “routine” procedure. Antetokounmpo finished last season third in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, averaging 31.1 points and 11.8 rebound per game before Milwaukee’s first round loss to the Miami Heat in the postseason.

⛸ Patrick Hornqvist hangs up the skates. 36-year-old Patrick Hornqvist is officially retiring from hockey, per Sportsnet. Hornqvist was drafted 230th overall by the Nashville Predators in the 2005 NHL Draft, going on to play 901 games in his career for the Predators, Penguins, and Panthers. His most notable moment came in 2017 when he scored the series-clinching goal in the Stanley Cup final, which would give Pittsburgh its second consecutive Stanley Cup victory.

✈️ Winnipeg, Dylan Samberg agree to two-year deal. The Winnipeg Jets and defenseman Dylan Samberg have reportedly come to terms on a two-year deal that is worth $1.4 million per season, per Winnipeg’s Twitter account. Samberg was selected with the 43rd overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft by the Jets, but the 24-year-old’s first full NHL season came in 2022-23. In two seasons with Winnipeg Samberg has tallied just two goals and 13 points across 78 contests, but Winnipeg believes they have a potential star in the making.

There are 13 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 1:05 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Reds ML, UNDER 10, Nationals +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals will finish off a four-game series on Thursday afternoon in the nation’s capital.

Cincinnati has dominated the series up to this point, winning each of the first three matchups. The Reds have also won seven of their last ten games and 19 of their last 23 overall.

Meanwhile, Washington has gone a mediocre 5-5 over its last ten games, pushing the Nationals further down the NL East standings.

There is no question who the better team is here today, but Cincinnati surprisingly enters this matchup as the underdog. Will we see an “upset” take place this afternoon like our model says, or can the Nationals get the victory as a rare home favorite?

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds got red hot in the month of June, going 15-3 across the final 18 games of the month. At some point we should expect the NL Central’s best team to cool down, but so far Cincinnati has not given us any indication that is going to happen.

According to Fangraphs, the Reds posted the fifth best wRC+ over the last 18 games in June at 116. That was a significant increase from Cincinnati’s 92 wRC+ prior to that stretch, showing tremendous improvements at the plate have taken place.

Now, that substantial of an improvement should always be viewed with some caution as it is often unsustainable. However, in the month of July we have seen Cincinnati’s wRC+ rise even further to 145, the fourth best mark in the MLB this month. That has coincided with a .323 BABIP as well, showing that what was accomplished in June was no fluke.

This team has added some great new pieces, most notably Elly De La Cruz, and it is already starting to pay dividends.

However, Brandon Williamson (1-2 record, 5.57 ERA) will get the start today for the Reds, which is a big reason why Washington is favored. The left-hander hasn’t done much right across 43.1 innings, posting an 18.0% strikeout rate and 11.8% Barrel rate in that time.

Washington Nationals

If it were still the month of May then backing MacKenzie Gore (4-7 record, 4.48 ERA) against the Reds would be a smart move. However, as we already discussed, Cincinnati has made tremendous leaps at the plate since the beginning of June, and in that time Gore has sputtered.

From April 1 - May 31 Gore was a reliable arm on the mound, posting a 3.57 ERA along with a 3.51 xFIP, per Fangraphs. He struggled with walks in that time, as evidenced by a 11.3% walk rate, however, he struck out 29.3% of batters he faced which made up for his lack of control.

Things would slowly fall apart for Gore as the calendar flipped to June though. Since June 1st we have seen Gore’s ERA spike to 6.23, while his xFIP has risen to 4.20. He has lowered his walk rate to 8.1% in that time, which shows that he is more comfortable on the mound, but his strikeout rate has also fallen to 24.4%.

As a result of the decline in production, Gore now owns a 4.48 ERA to a 5.17 xERA, proving that expectations are actually worse than what has transpired so far. That likely results from Gore ranking in the bottom 10% of the majors in Hard Hit rate (46.6%) and posting an 11.4% Barrel rate, per Baseball Savant, showing that hitters are much more capable of sizing him up now than ever before.

What’s the Play?

Brandon Williamson is a tough guy to trust. However, he has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his six appearances since June 1st, showing that he provides some level of stability on the mound.

On the other hand, Gore has been far more inconsistent, surrendering five or more earned runs in three of his last six appearances, including seven earned runs in his last start against Philadelphia.

Washington hits lefties well, but we think the Reds still have the advantage at the plate due to the recent unpredictability of Gore. Our model thinks the Red should be favored with odds around -140, so we’ll back the better team as an underdog this afternoon.

3-star play: Reds ML (+100)

Money Line Trends💰

• Cincinnati Reds- 48-39 overall, 19-16 as a road underdog, have won 19 of last 23 games

• Baltimore Orioles- 50-35 overall this season, 15-11 against division opponents (Play AL East rival New York today)

• Texas Rangers- 51-36 overall this season, 24-18 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Kansas City Royals- Under is 44-41-2 this season, 24-18-1 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 49-34-3 this season, best win percentage in MLB

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 49-32-5 this season, 22-18-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Chicago White Sox- Run line is 45-42 overall this season, 31-24 as the home team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 45-41 overall this season, 22-21 as the away team

Various Injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

🏟 MLB releases Home Run Derby bracket. Everyone’s favorite part of the MLB All-Star weekend is the Home Run Derby, a competition where the league’s best hitters come together to hit baseball’s as far as they can. Yesterday was the first time we got to see which sluggers face off against one another, and it looks like we are in store for an awesome competition. No.1 overall seed Luis Robert Jr. will face off against Adley Rutschman, but the matchup that most people have their eyes on is Pete Alonso vs Julio Rodríguez. DraftKings currently lists Alonso as the favorite (+280), followed by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370), and Luis Robert Jr. (+450).

🤕 Mike Trout has surgery on wrist, no timetable for return. Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout underwent surgery on his fractured left wrist on Wednesday. The injury occurred when Trout fouled off a pitch in Monday’s 10-3 loss to San Diego, and the Angels have yet to win a game with Trout sidelined. There is currently no timetable for the slugger’s return, who was recently selected to his 11th All-Star team after batting .263 with 18 home runs and 44 RBIs this season.

⛳️ John Deere Classic set to begin later today. The John Deere Classic is set to tee off later this morning at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. With the Scottish Open and Open Championship just around the corner, only one top-25 golfer, Cam Young, will compete in the event. However, seven additional players ranked inside the top-50 will hit the ground running on Thursday, making it a noteworthy event. Last year’s winner, J.T. Poston, is in the field once again after shooting 21-under par last season, but Russell Henley (+1400), Cam Young (+1600), and Denny McCarthy (+1800), and the heavy favorites to win the event.

🗽Breanna Stewart leads Liberty to victory over Mercury. New York Liberty star Breanna Stewart scored 43 points in a tight 99-95 victory over the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night. Stewart led New York to a 73-53 lead with four minutes left in the third quarter, but Phoenix would rally down the stretch and tie the game at 92 before Stewart gave the Liberty the lead with just over a minute left in regulation. The former UCONN star has now scored in double figures in 15 straight games, with last night’s performance marking the second time she has cross the 40-point mark this season.

🏎 Formula 1 announces 2024 schedule. Formula 1 is slowly gaining popularity around the world, and things got more exciting with the release of the 2024 schedule. 24 races are set to place next year, with the first in Bahrain and the last in Abu Dahbi. The United States was represented twice on the list, with races scheduled in Miami, Florida and Austin, Texas.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Texas Rangers currently own the third-best record in the MLB, but the team has not always been located in Texas and went by a different name prior to relocating to Arlington following the 1971 season. What was the Texas Rangers’ original name?

Question #2- The Minnesota Timberwolves have seen several Hall of Fame players wear their jersey over the years, but one player in particular dominated the rest in his time with the team. Who is the Timberwolves’ franchise leader in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks?

Question #3- Richard Sherman was widely regarded as the best cornerback in the NFL during his time with the Seattle Seahawks and the “Legion of Boom”. What round of the NFL draft was Sherman selected?

Anyone know what has happened on July 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 6th…

1929- The St. Louis Cardinals score 28 runs in a 28-6 win over the Philadelphia Phillies, setting what at the time was an MLB record for runs scored in a single game. The matchup was essentially over from the very first pitch, with St. Louis scoring 10 runs in the top of the first inning alone. It wouldn’t be the last time we saw the Cardinals string together an offensive explosion though, scoring ten more runs in the fifth inning as well. Cardinals pitcher Fred Frankhouse pitched all nine innings, easily picking up his second win of the season despite surrendering six runs and 17 hits.

1980- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton strikes out seven batters across eight innings to reach 2,836 career strikeouts, the most by a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. The performance gave Carlton his 14th victory of the season, while simultaneously lowering his ERA to a stellar 2.14. Carlton played 23 seasons in the MLB before retiring in 1988 and ranks fourth on the MLB’s all-time strikeouts list with 4,136.

2019- UFC fighter Jorge Masvidal knocks out Ben Askren during their welterweight fight at UFC 239. What made the knockout unique is that it took only five seconds to be completed, making it the fastest knockout in UFC history. Masvidal hit Askren with a flying knee to the head right after the bell, a move that would leave its mark on the UFC forever.

2020- Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes signs a contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs worth upwards of $503 million, making it the third-largest known sports contract of all-time. Since signing the contract, Mahomes has won the NFL MVP (2022) and led the Chiefs to two Super Bowls, including last season’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo sit above Mahomes on the list.

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1. Washington Senators

2. Kevin Garnett

3. 5th