In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-9

Over/Under Predictions: 8-7

Run Line Predictions: 11-4

Featured Matchup: 0-1

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Reds ML, UNDER 8, Reds +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will continue their four-game series on Saturday, with the first pitch of Game 3 scheduled to be at 2:15 PM Eastern.

Both teams have seen mixed results thus far in the series, with Cincinnati picking up the win in Game 1 and St. Louis grabbing the victory in Game 2. Splitting the first half of the series has brought the Reds’ season record to 38-44, while the Cardinals sit at 42-39.

Our model projects the Reds to win this afternoon’s game despite being a large underdog, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cincinnati Reds

• Have split series with Cardinals so far

  • Outscored St. Louis 11-4 in Game 1, lost 1-0 in Game 2

  • Now 2-3 vs Cardinals this season

• Struggling to hit right-handed pitching thus far

  • Rank 26th in wRC+ (86), 20th in BABIP (.278), and 22nd in OPS (.672)

  • Face right-hander Sonny Gray today

• Starting pitcher- Carson Spiers

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.45 ERA vs 3.40 xERA

  • Elite at avoiding walks and the barrel- ranks inside top 9% of MLB in Walk rate (4.5%) and Barrel rate (4.0%)

St. Louis Cardinals

• Enter today as one of hottest teams in MLB

  • Have won six of last eight games- three wins over Giants, two over Braves, one over Reds

  • However, only own +2 run differential in that span

• Bullpen has been key piece to winning recent games

  • Bullpen- 2.63 ERA (6th), 3.12 FIP (8th). Keeping balls in ballpark (0.33 HR/9)

• Starting pitcher- Sonny Gray

  • Pitching close to expectations- 2.81 ERA vs 3.11 xERA

  • Elite strikeout pitcher- 31.7% strikeout rate ranks in top 7% of MLB

What’s the Play?

We think backing the Reds on the money line is an aggressive bet, but we do agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the under.

Cincinnati was shutout yesterday after exploding for 11 runs in Game 1, and they are likely in for another tough matchup this afternoon against Sonny Gray. The Reds’ inability to hit right-handers puts them in a tough spot here, and Gray’s high strikeout rate and low walk rate will make it difficult for Cincinnati to put ducks on the pond.

However, things won’t be that easy for the Cardinals against Spiers either. He is more vulnerable to contact than Gray is, but opposing teams have yet to barrel him up consistently, and his elite control will help minimize any damage that is done.

Runs will likely be tough to come by today, so we’ll be backing the under here.

The Play: Under 8 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 53-31 overall this season, 29-17 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 49-33 overall this season, 19-9 vs division opponents (Play NL Central rival Cubs today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 48-29-4 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (62.3%)

• New York Mets- Under is 24-19 as the home team this season

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 45-37 this season, 19-11 as a road underdog

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 47-34 this season, 24-14 as a road underdog

🤕 Phillies place Harper and Schwarber on IL. The Phillies placed Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber on the 10-day injured list due to hamstring and groin strains, respectively, but expect them back before the All-Star break. Harper, hitting .303 with 20 homers, suffered his injury during Thursday's game against the Marlins, while Schwarber, with 17 homers, strained his groin in the same game. Philadelphia activated Kody Clemens and recalled Johan Rojas to fill the roster spots.

⬆️ Nationals to promote top prospect on Monday. The Washington Nationals plan to promote top outfield prospect James Wood to the majors on Monday, likely debuting against the New York Mets at Nationals Park. Ranked as baseball's No. 3 prospect, Wood has impressed in Triple-A with a .346 average, 10 home runs, and strong defensive play. The Nationals hope Wood can energize their team, which is currently just three games out of a playoff spot in the NL wild-card race.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three All-Star pitchers were selected within the top-six of the 2009 MLB Draft. Who are those pitchers?

Question #2- What current NBA coach is one of two NBA players to play college basketball at Portland State?

Question #3- Former Philadelphia Phillies star Ryan Howard recorded 146 RBIs during the 2010 season, 16 more than the next closest player. Who finished second in RBIs that season?

Anyone know what has happened on June 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 29th…

1986- Sparky Anderson becomes the first manager in MLB history to win 600 games in both the American and National League. Anderson won 863 games with the Cincinnati Reds, and 1,331 with the Detroit Tigers. He would end his career with 2,194 wins, which currently ranks him sixth on the MLB’s all-time list.

1990- Two no-hitters are thrown on the same day, one in the American League and one in the National League. Oakland Athletics pitcher Dave Stewart no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays, and Fernando Valenzuela no-hit the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the first time in MLB history one no-hitter was thrown in each league on the same day.

1994- Glenn Robinson is selected with the No.1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Robinson was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks, a result of being the star player at Purdue University the year prior. Robinson went on to play for the Bucks until 2002, and also played for the Hawks, 76ers, and Spurs in his career.

1. Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor

2. Ime Udoka

3. Josh Hamilton