Back the Mets at Citi Field

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5-1

Puck Line Predictions: 3-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Four NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Mets ML, OVER 7.5, Mets +1.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will continue their best-of-seven series on Wednesday night, as the series heads back to Queens for Game 3.

Los Angeles and New York have each picked up a win in the series, making this NLCS tied 1-1. The Dodgers now own a 4-3 record in the postseason following those two contests, while New York is 6-3 across nine postseason matchups dating back to the start of October.

The Dodgers are certainly not an easy team to beat, but the Mets have already done so once in this series and our model projects them to take down L.A. again tonight. Let’s dive into why that is.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Own 4-3 record in postseason

  • Three wins over Padres, one win over Mets

  • Own +8 run differential in that span

• Offense has generated mixed results in NLCS vs Mets

  • Own 103 wRC+, .289 BABIP, and .658 OPS through two games. Getting on base via walk (18.8% Walk rate)

  • Outscored Mets 9-0 in Game 1, but lost 7-3 in Game 2

• Starting pitcher- Walker Buehler

  • Due for positive regression- 5.38 ERA vs 4.68 xERA

  • Surrendering tons of contact- 19.4% Whiff rate and 18.6% Strikeout rate rank in bottom 16% of MLB

New York Mets

• Own 6-3 record in postseason

  • Two wins over Brewers, three wins over Phillies, one win over Dodgers

  • Own +10 run differential in that span

• Got offense going in Game 2 after miserable showing in Game 1

  • Game 1- Lost 9-0. Recorded three hits, three walks, and eight strikeouts

  • Game 2- Won 7-3. Recorded 10 hits, six walks, and six strikeouts

• Starting pitcher- Luis Severino

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.91 ERA vs 3.88 xERA

  • Has allowed three runs in each of his two postseason starts

What’s the Play?

Los Angeles and New York have each produced mixed results in this series, but we agree with our model that the Mets are the team to back tonight.

Walker Buehler has struggled mightily to return to his old ways on the mound. His Strikeout and Walk rates are both at their highest levels since his rookie season in 2017, and his inability to avoid contact gives the Mets a great chance to not only get some ducks on the pond, but bring them around to score.

Additionally, Luis Severino was a stud when pitching at Citi Field this season, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, per FanGraphs. A large reason for that success has been his ability to avoid the barrel and keep balls on the ground, with his 5.7% Barrel rate ranking in the top 18% of the MLB and his 46.3% Ground Ball rate ranking in the top 28%.

Both of these offenses can get going quick, but facing Buehler gives New York a significant advantage tonight. As a result, we’ll back the Mets to take a 2-1 series lead.

The Play: Mets ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 6-3 overall in postseason, 2-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over was 94-69-6 in regular season, 5-1-1 in the postseason

• New York Mets- Over is 7-2 in postseason with average total of 8.89

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• New York Mets- Run line is 90-81 this season, 7-2 in postseason

💪 Yankees hold off Guardians to take 2-0 series lead. Aaron Judge hit a crucial two-run home run in the seventh inning, helping the Yankees secure a 6-3 win over the Cleveland Guardians and take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. Gleyber Torres received some playful ribbing for tagging up on the hit, but Judge’s powerful swing provided the necessary cushion for New York. Cleveland's defensive miscues and missed opportunities, including going 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position, contributed to their defeat despite a strong push in the fifth inning.

💰 Phillies extend manager Thompson through 2026. The Philadelphia Phillies extended manager Rob Thomson’s contract through 2026, with the entire coaching staff set to return next season. Thomson, who took over in 2022, has led the Phillies to three consecutive postseason appearances, including a World Series run and a 2024 NL East title. Despite falling to the Mets in this year's NLDS, team president Dave Dombrowski praised Thomson's leadership and success, noting that few teams have reached the playoffs three years in a row.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who led the MLB in batting average this season, hitting .332 across 161 games?

Question #2- Carmelo Anthony scored 28,289 points in his NBA career. Where does that total rank on the NBA’s all-time scoring list?

Question #3- Two quarterbacks were selected in the top-three of the 2002 NFL Draft. One of those players was David Carr, but who was the other?

Anyone know what has happened on October 16th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 16th…

1983- The Baltimore Orioles defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. Baltimore took down Philadelphia in five games, clinching the victory with a 5-0 win in Game 5. Orioles catcher Rick Dempsey was named World Series MVP.

1991- Dallas Mavericks player Roy Tarpley is banned from the NBA for life. Tarpley became the seventh player in NBA history to be banned from the league, with his ban resulting from violations of the league’s anti-drug agreement. He would later be reinstated to the NBA in 1994, but would be banned again in 1995 due to alcohol abuse.

2014- The San Francisco Giants defeat the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series. The Giants took down the Cardinals in five games, outscoring the Cardinals 24-16 in that span. San Francisco would go on to the face the Kansas City Royals in the World Series, a series they would win in seven games.

1. Bobby Witt Jr.

2. 10th

3. Joey Harrington

NCAAF Model Predictions 🏈

NHL Model Predictions ⚾️