In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those prediction in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-8

Over/Under Predictions: 6-7

Spread Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Two NFL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Model Predicts- Bengals ML, OVER 46.5, Commanders +7.5

The Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals will go head-to-head in the second game of a Monday night doubleheader, squaring off in Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio at 8:15 PM Eastern.

Washington enters this Week 3 matchup with a 1-1 record, a result of defeating the New York Giants in Week 2 following a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. Meanwhile, Cincinnati owns an 0-2 record through two weeks after losing to the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bengals haven’t done many things well this season, but our model expects Cincinnati to pick up its first win of the season tonight in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Washington Commanders

• Have had mixed results through two weeks

  • Week 1- Lost 37-20 to Buccaneers. Recorded 299 yards of offense but allowed 392

  • Week 2- Beat Giants 21-18. Recorded 425 yards of offense and allowed 304

• Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has led offense to success thus far

  • Team ranks 4th in EPA/play, 6th in success rate

  • Balanced offense has led to success- run ball on 52% of plays and pass on 48%. Rank 10th in yards/play (5.8)

• Defense has struggled often trough two weeks

  • Rank in bottom half of NFL in opponent passing yards (227.5) and rushing yards (120.5) per game

  • Can’t get off field- Rank 32nd in opponent 3rd down conversion rate (61.9%)

Cincinnati Bengals

• Enter Week 3 without a win

  • Lost 16-10 to Patriots in Week 1, 26-25 to Chiefs in Week 2

  • Have now started season 0-2 three-straight years

• Offense hasn’t looked great, but made strides in Week 2

  • Recorded 320 total yards of offense vs Chiefs- 246 pass yards, 74 rush yards

  • Only running ball on 34.86% of plays, but rank 3rd in rushing success rate

• Defense mostly struggling vs the run

  • Rank 26th in opponent EPA/rush and opponent rush yards/game (159.5)

What’s the Play?

Neither Washington nor Cincinnati has managed to get much going this season, but we agree with our model that both teams can pour on the points tonight. As a result, we’ll back the over in this matchup.

Cincinnati has a great opportunity to run over Washington here, as the Commanders rank 32nd in opponent EPA/play and 29th in opponent success rate through two weeks, and have been unable to force many punts. Those rankings result from struggles against both the run and pass, which will enable the Bengals offense, who will have Tee Higgins back in the lineup, to move down the field in bunches tonight. Scoring should not be an issue either for Cincinnati, as Washington’s defense is surrendering a touchdown on 75% of red zone drives while allowing 27.5 points/game.

Washington has enough talent offensively to make things happen against a questionable Bengals defense too. As previously mentioned, Cincinnati has yet to find an answer for the run, which gives Brian Robinson Jr. (5.97 yards/carry this season) and Jayden Daniels an opportunity to move the chains on the ground.

Neither offense should face much resistance tonight, but we’d stay away from backing Washington on the spread as its defense could easily be overpowered. However, the over is certainly in play here, and we are making that tonight’s best bet.

The Play: Over 46.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Buffalo Bills- 2-0 overall this season, own 9-2 record in last 11 home games

• Cincinnati Bengals- 0-2 overall this season, own 6-4 record in last 10 home games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Jacksonville Jaguars- Under is 2-0 this season with average total of 34.0

• Washington Commanders- Over is 1-1 this season, 1-0 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Washington Commanders- 1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 6-7-1 ATS as an underdog since 2023

⭐️ Justin Fields shines bright vs Chargers, leads Steelers to 3-0 record. Justin Fields threw for a touchdown, ran for another, and led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 20-10 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, improving their record to 3-0. Fields completed 25 of 32 passes for 245 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin III in the fourth quarter, while Pittsburgh's defense racked up five sacks and stifled the Chargers' offense. Despite Justin Herbert exiting with an ankle injury, the Steelers controlled the game with efficient play, outgaining the Chargers 346-168 and holding possession for over 33 minutes.

🐏 Rams rally late to stun 49ers at home. Rookie kicker Joshua Karty nailed a 37-yard field goal with 2 seconds remaining, lifting the Los Angeles Rams to a thrilling 27-24 comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers. Kyren Williams had three touchdowns, including a key 4-yard rush with under two minutes left, helping the Rams rally from a 14-point deficit in the second half. Despite strong performances by Jauan Jennings and Brock Purdy for the 49ers, San Francisco couldn't hold onto their lead, as key mistakes and missed opportunities allowed the Rams to secure their second straight victory over their division rivals.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Chip Kelly had a brief stint as an NFL head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, but is now the offensive coordinator for what Big 10 school?

Question #2- Puka Nacua took the NFL by storm in the 2023 season. What two schools did Nacua attend before playing in the NFL?

Question #3- Who was the last NBA player to be selected out of high school?

Anyone know what has happened on September 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 23rd…

1997- The Seattle Mariners record their 258th home run of the season, setting a new MLB record. Ken Griffey Jr. led the way for the Mariners, launching 56 homers in a season where Seattle would extend their MLB record to 264. However, that home run total now ranks seventh in league history, with the 2019 Twins now owning the record (307).

2018- New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees completes his 6,301st career pass attempt. The completion was to Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, and it was significant because Brees broke Brett Favre’s NFL record of 6,300 career completions. Brees would end his career with 7,142 completions, which now ranks second all-time behind Tom Brady (7,753).

2022- St. Louis Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols hits two home runs and records five RBIs in a 11-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The performance gave Pujols 700 homers for his career, becoming just the fourth player in MLB history to reach the mark. He would go on to retire with 703 home runs, the fourth most in league history.

1. Ohio State

2. Washington, BYU

3. Amir Johnson

MLB Model Predictions ⚾️