Back the Over in Kansas City

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAB Model Predictions- Will begin 11/6/24

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-4

Over/Under Predictions: 8-5

Spread Predictions: 6-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

The college basketball season is finally here, and to celebrate we are offering a 25% discount on our Premium subscription! Offer lasts until 11:59 PM Eastern on November 4, 2024.

Normally our subscription is $10/month or $100/year, but you can now upgrade for only $7.50/month or $75/year and that price will not change for the length of the subscription!

Our NCAAB model predictions will start being sent out on 11/6/24. Don’t miss out on getting those bets sent to your inbox every day⬇️

One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Model Predicts- Chiefs ML, OVER 45.5, Buccaneers +9

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will hit the road for the first time since Week 6 on Monday, taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football.

Tampa Bay enters this matchup in the midst of a slump, losing two consecutive games to drop the Buccaneers’ record to 4-4 for the season. Meanwhile, Kansas City has yet to lose this season, posting a perfect 7-0 record following a division win over the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.

Kansas City is a significant favorite at home tonight, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Ravens, one loss to Falcons

  • Own -15 point differential in that span

• Offense has been efficient during losing streak

  • Rank 8th in EPA/play, and 6th in success rate over last two weeks

  • Averaging 456.5 yards/game and 28.5 points per game

• Defense is weak overall, but especially against the pass

  • Rank 24th in opponent EPA/play, 27th in opponent success rate

  • Allowing 255.4 pass yards/game (29th in NFL)

Kansas City Chiefs

• Have yet to los game this season

  • Own 7-0 record. 3-0 in home games, 4-0 in road games

  • Have posted +50 point differential

• Patrick Mahomes is leading offense to great production

  • Offense ranks first in success rate, 10th in EPA/play

  • 24.7 points/game is up from 22.2 in 2023. Average time of possession is 32:20 (3rd in NFL)

• Defense great against run, but can exposed through the air

  • Holding opponents to 3.5 yards/attempt and 82.3 rush yards/game

  • However, rank 23rd in opponent dropback success rate

What’s the Play?

Tampa Bay and Kansas City are each missing some key skill position players for this matchup, but we agree with our model to back the over in this spot.

Three key pass catchers have missed time for the Buccaneers and Chiefs, with those players being Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rashee Rice, but those absences have not slowed down either one of these offenses. As previously mentioned, Tampa Bay is averaging 456.5 yards/game across the last two weeks despite Godwin and Evans missing time, with 343 of those yards coming via the pass.

Those numbers are slightly inflated due to the Bucs playing from behind at times, but we should expect that to continue today as Tampa Bay’s defense has not proven it can stop efficient offenses, which Kansas City is.

We expect Mahomes and company to continue to build on their momentum here, but we also expect Mayfield to move his squad down the field against a Chiefs defense that can be exposed through the air. As a result, we’ll take the over.

The Play: Over 45.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Chiefs- 7-0 overall this season, 3-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Over is 6-2 this season, 2-1 as the away team, and 4-1 as an underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 4-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the away team

🦅 Eagles survive late scare from Jaguars, win fourth-straight game. Saquon Barkley’s impressive performance, highlighted by a spectacular backward hurdle, helped propel the Eagles to a 28-23 victory over the Jaguars, marking their fourth consecutive win. Despite missed scoring opportunities on fourth downs and 2-point conversions, the Eagles held off a late Jacksonville rally, sealed by Nakobe Dean’s game-saving interception in the end zone. Jalen Hurts threw two touchdowns, and DeVonta Smith’s one-handed catch extended the lead, while Barkley's dynamic play and key contributions kept Philadelphia in control throughout the game.

💪 Cardinals take down Bears to win third straight game. Emari Demercado’s 53-yard touchdown run just before halftime helped the Cardinals secure a dominant 29-9 win over the Bears, extending Arizona’s winning streak to three games. Kyler Murray contributed with efficient passing, while James Conner rushed for 107 yards and Arizona’s defense sacked Chicago rookie quarterback Caleb Williams six times. The Cardinals capitalized on costly Bears mistakes, including a late-second-quarter penalty, to build a strong lead that they maintained comfortably in the second half.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two Indiana University basketball players were selected in the top-four of the 2013 NBA Draft. Who were those players?

Question #2- Three of the four teams to make the Final Four in the 2010 March Madness Tournament were Duke, Butler, and Michigan State. Who was the fourth team?

Question #3- Two current NBA players rank in the top-five on the NBA’s all-time assists list. One of those players in Chris Paul, but who is the other?

Anyone know what has happened on November 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 4th…

1980- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Steve Carlton wins the National League Cy Young award. Carlton won the award following a dominant season on the mound, one in which he went 24-9 with a 2.34 ERA in 304.0 innings. It was the fourth Cy Young award that Carlton won in his career, and he would win a third and final award in 1982.

1989- The first basketball game is played at Orlando Arena in Orlando, Florida. The Orlando Magic played the New Jersey Nets in the game, losing the matchup by a score of 111-106. Losing was a large theme for Orlando during the 1989 season, as the Magic went just 18-64 across 82 games and finished in seventh in the Central division.

2009- The New York Yankees beat the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the World Series. New York won the game by a score of 7-3, giving the Yankees the series win. It was the 27th World Series title for the Yankees in their franchise history, and outfielder Hideki Matsui was named World Series MVP.

1. Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller

2. West Virginia

3. LeBron James

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NBA Model Predictions🏀