Back the Over in Philadelphia

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5-1

Spread Predictions: 4-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Ten NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all ten matchups can be found below.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers

Model Predicts- Maple Leafs ML, OVER 6.5, Flyers +1.5

The Toronto Maple Leafs will begin a short two-game road trip on Tuesday, with the first stop coming in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to battle an Eastern Conference foe in the Philadelphia Flyers.

Toronto enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of a four-game win streak, which includes a victory over this Flyers team on Sunday. That win streak has improved the Maple Leafs’ record to 26-13-2 for the season, while the Flyers own a 17-18-6 record and have lost two-consecutive games.

Toronto and Philadelphia are trending in opposite directions at the moment, and our model expects that to continue tonight as it projects a Maple Leafs win in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is.

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Enter tonight on four-game win streak

  • Two wins over Islanders, one over Bruins, one over Flyers

  • Own +6 goal differential in that span

• Defense has looked strong during win streak, but is due for regression

  • Have posted 2.08 Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) across last four games (12th in NHL)

  • However, Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in that span is much higher at 2.63, signaling opponents will start scoring more goals

• Expected goalie- Joseph Woll

  • Owns .918 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +8.7

Philadelphia Flyers

• Enter tonight having lost three of last four games

  • Losses to Kings, Golden Knights, and Maple Leafs. Win came against Ducks

  • Own -1 goal differential in that span

• Offense has been incredibly strong during losing stretch

  • Rank 1st in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 with 3.10 since December 29th

  • Putting tons of pressure on net- rank 2nd in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5 with 14.63 since that same date

• Expected goalie- Ivan Fedotov

  • Owns .892 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 70th in GSAx (-3.9)

What’s the Play?

Toronto and Philadelphia combined to score five goals through three periods and overtime on Sunday, but we agree with our model to back the over here at its current total of 6.5.

The Maple Leafs are due to see significant regression on the defensive end of the ice, and it is largely due to Toronto’s inability to keep its opponents from generating high-danger scoring chances. Per Natural Stat Trick, Toronto is surrendering 11.93 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations across the last four games, the seventh-most in the NHL in that span. That weakness can be easily exposed by a Flyers team that has been elite at creating pressure, putting Philly in a great spot to pour on the goals.

However, Ivan Fedotov is a liability in net for Philadelphia, surrendering 14 goals and posting a .885 Save % across his last five appearances. That always places Philadelphia at a slight disadvantage, and the Maple Leafs will likely light the lamp against often him just like they did on Sunday.

In summary, we expect the Maple Leafs to put up a similar scoring total to what we saw on Sunday, but believe Philadelphia’s offense is set for a breakout performance. As a result, we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 6.5 (+105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 26-13-2 overall this season, 9-6-2 as the away team, and 4-0-0 in last four games

• Minnesota Wild- 25-11-4 overall this season, 10-8-1 as the home team, and 3-0-0 in last three games

• Winnipeg Jets- 27-12-1 overall this season, 14-4-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Flyers- Over is 21-18-1 this season with average total of 6.68

• Anaheim Ducks- Under is 25-12-2 this season, highest win percentage in NHL (66.7%)

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Anaheim Ducks- Puck line is 27-12 this season

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 25-14 this season

🏜 Maricopa County working to bring hockey back to Arizona. Maricopa County Board Chairman Thomas Galvin is forming a committee of influential leaders to bring NHL hockey back to Arizona, collaborating with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman to explore options for a new arena and ownership. The Arizona Coyotes relocated to Utah in 2024 after their former owner relinquished rights to the team, but Bettman has expressed hope for the league's return to the Valley under the right circumstances. Despite challenges during their tenure, including playing at a small collegiate venue in their final years, the Coyotes remain a point of focus for reviving NHL presence in Arizona.

🚨 Toews pots two goals to lead Avalanche to win over Panthers. Devon Toews scored twice, including the decisive goal in the third period, as the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Florida Panthers 3-1, wrapping up a successful four-game homestand. Mackenzie Blackwood made 25 saves, improving to 7-1-1 since joining Colorado, while Mikko Rantanen extended his points streak to 14 games with an empty-net goal. Despite Sergei Bobrovsky’s strong 31-save performance and Carter Verhaeghe's early goal for Florida, the Panthers fell short, with both teams struggling on the power play.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only one player drafted in the second round of the 2014 NBA Draft has been named an All-Star. Who is that player?

Question #2- The Washington Capitals defeated what Western Conference team to win the 2018 Stanley Cup Finals?

Question #3- Former MLB shortstop Jose Reyes played for four MLB teams in his career. What team did he play for on two separate occasions?

Anyone know what has happened on January 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On January 7th…

1989- The Cleveland Cavaliers defeat the New York Knicks by a score of 104-98. Cleveland recorded 21 blocks in the game, which set a new NBA record for blocks in a single game. The record would stand until 2001, when the Toronto Raptors recorded 23 blocks vs the Atlanta Hawks.

1998- Los Angeles Lakers star Shaquille O’Neal records three blocks in 114-102 win over the Milwaukee Bucks. The block party gave O’Neal 1,002 blocks for his career, and he would go on to record 83 blocks across 49 games during the 1998-99 season. O’Neal would end his career with 2,732 blocks, the eighth-most in NBA history.

2019- The College Football National Championship is contested between the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide. Both teams came out of the gates red hot, with Clemson taking a 14-13 lead at the end of the first quarter, but the Tigers would pull away quickly, eventually winning by a final score of 44-16. The win was the 15th of the season for Clemson, giving the Tigers a perfect record.

1. Nikola Jokic

2. Las Vegas Golden Knights

3. New York Mets