Back the Over on Monday Night Football

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-1

Over/Under Predictions: 4-8

Spread Predictions: 7-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Model Predicts- Texans ML, OVER 41, Cowboys +7

The Houston Texans will hit the road for the first time in November on Monday, taking their talents to Dallas, Texas to battle an in-state rival in the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football

Houston enters this matchup with firm control of first place in the AFC South division, but is in the midst of a troubling slump after losing two-consecutive games. Meanwhile, Dallas sits in third place in the NFC East division with a 3-6 record, and has not won a game since beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5.

Dallas’ season has been in a downward spiral for quite some time, and our model projects the Cowboys’ struggles to continue in prime time tonight, in a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Houston Texans

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Jets, one loss to Lions

  • Own -11 point differential in that span

• Struggles on road are starting to become evident

  • Own 4-1 record at home, but are just 2-3 on road

  • Averaging 5.4 yards/play at home vs 4.8 on road, 356.6 yards/game at home vs 320.0 on road

• Defense has been strong this season, but will be missing key piece tonight

  • Rank 2nd in opponent success rate, 8th in opponent EPA/play

  • Defensive end Will Anderson is OUT (Ankle)

Dallas Cowboys

• Enter today on four-game losing streak

  • Losses to Lions, 49ers, Falcons, and Eagles

  • Own -78 point differential in that stretch

• Offense collapsed last week in first game without Dak Prescott

  • Scored six points and recorded 146 yards of offense vs Eagles

  • Starting quarterback was Cooper Rush (13/23 passing, 45 yards, two fumbles), and will be once again for this matchup

• Defense has been shredded during four-game losing streak

  • Rank 31st in opponent EPA/play, 29th in opponent success rate

  • Surrendering 34.5 points/game and 404.8 yards/game

What’s the Play?

Dallas’ offensive potential will be limited under Cooper Rush, but we agree with our model that the Cowboys can do enough offensively alongside the Texans to hit the over here.

Houston has a strong defense this season, but the groups’ production has slid while on the road. Per TeamRankings, the Texans are surrendering 4.7 yards/play and 19.8 points/game at home this season, but those stats spike to 5.2 yards/play and 25.4 points/game on the road. Those variances are a concern even with Cooper Rush at the helm, and the absence of Will Anderson will likely mean putting less pressure on Rush, giving Dallas a better opportunity to move the ball this week.

The Texans experience some decline in offensive production on the road as well, but it has yet to affect their scoring, as Houston averages 22.4 points/game at home and on the road this year. We expect that to pick up in this matchup too, as CJ Stroud has another weapon in Nico Collins back in the lineup to go alongside Tank Dell and Joe Mixon.

In summary, Houston should have no problems finding the endzone tonight, and we expect Cooper Rush and Dallas to bounce back against a Texans defense that struggles on the road. As a result, we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 41 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Texans- 6-4 overall this season, 2-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Dallas Cowboys- Over is 5-4 this season, 2-1 as a home underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Cowboys- 2-7 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-5 ATS as an underdog

💪 Josh Allen, Bills hand Chiefs first loss of season. Josh Allen's late 26-yard touchdown run and Terrel Bernard's game-sealing interception lifted the Buffalo Bills to a 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Despite missing key players, Allen threw for 262 yards and contributed two total touchdowns, while James Cook added two rushing scores to maintain Buffalo's six-game winning streak and undefeated home record. Kansas City, now 9-1, saw their 15-game win streak end as both teams prepare for critical matchups following their bye and bounce-back opportunities.

🦁 Lions make history in home win over Jaguars. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and four touchdowns, leading the Detroit Lions to a historic 52-6 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, their largest win margin ever, while setting a franchise record with 644 total yards. The NFC-leading Lions (9-1) dominated on both sides of the ball, with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching two touchdowns, and David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combining for three rushing scores. Jacksonville, reeling from its second four-game losing streak of the season, suffered its biggest-ever loss as Mac Jones struggled in place of injured Trevor Lawrence.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson played for two schools in his college career. One school was Penn State, but what was the other school?

Question #2- Only one NBA player averaged 30.0 points per game during the 2007-2008 season. Who was that player?

Question #3- Three shortstops were selected with the top-three picks in the 2015 MLB Draft. Who was the first shortstop drafted?

Anyone know what has happened on November 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 18th…

1987- Chicago Cubs star Andre Dawson wins the National League MVP Award. The honor came in Dawson’s first season with Chicago, a year in which he tallied 49 home runs, 137 RBIs, and 90 runs scored. It was the only MVP award Dawson won in his career, and it was rewarded despite Chicago finishing in last place in the NL East.

1990- The New York Giants defeat the Detroit Lions 20-0 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. New York scored all 20 of its points in the first half, enabling the Giants to improve their record to 10-0 for the season. New York went on to finish the season with a 13-3 record, and won the NFC Championship and Super Bowl.

2006- The 71st Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama takes place in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The Tigers took down the Crimson Tide 22-15 to win the rivalry game, outscoring Alabama 15-9 in the first half and 8-6 in the second half. The win pushed Auburn’s record to 10-2 for the season, while the loss made Alabama just 6-6.

1. University of Oregon

2. LeBron James

3. Dansby Swanson

NCAAB Model Predictions🏀

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NBA Model Predictions🏀