Back the Under in Arizona

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-2

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6

Spread Predictions: 7-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Two NFL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for both of those matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Model Predicts- Chargers ML, UNDER 44, Chargers -1

The Los Angeles Chargers will hit the road for the second consecutive week on Monday, taking on the Arizona Cardinals in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

Los Angeles enters tonight’s matchup fresh off a dominant division win over an AFC West rival, the Denver Broncos. That win snapped a two-game losing streak and brought the Chargers’ record to 3-2 for the season, while Arizona has won just two of six games to begin the season.

Our model projects the Chargers to win tonight’s game by nearly six points, but we have our eyes set on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Coming off big win over Denver Broncos

  • Beat Denver 23-16. Win came after bye week and two straight losses

  • Held Denver scoreless until fourth quarter- Broncos scored 16 points in final 11 minutes

• Defense has been the key to a strong start

  • Rank 3rd in opponent EPA/play and opponent success rate

  • Holding opponents to 5.1 yards/play and 13.2 points/game- rank top-eight in NFL in both categories

• Offense has lagged behind significantly compared to defense

  • Rank 28th in yards/game with 295.6, 25th in yards/play (4.8)

Arizona Cardinals

• Enter this week off blowout loss to Packers

  • Lost game 34-13. Outscored 24-10 in first half, 10-3 in second half

  • Recorded 303 total yards of offense, but surrendered 437 to Packers

• Offense has been among the league’s worst across the last four games

  • Rank 24th in EPA/play and 13th in success rate

  • Have been held to 14 points or less in three of four games. Averaging just 15.75 points/game in that stretch

• Defense also faces significant issues

  • Rank 32nd in opponent success rate this season, 29th in opponent yards/play (5.9)

What’s the Play?

Our model is showing tons of value on the Chargers here, which is a bet we do have confidence in. However, we are going to make the under today’s best bet.

The Chargers offense is one that relies heavily on the run for success, as L.A. runs the ball on 52.40% of plays this season (3rd in NFL) and ranks in the top-12 in rush yards/game. That is going to be a strategy that we may see more heavily utilized today, as the Cardinals rank 28th in opponent rushing success rate and surrender 4.7 yards/carry.

Additionally, the Chargers’ already anemic passing offense could be without some key pieces in wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey, another factor that is going to make L.A. run the ball often.

Arizona hasn’t shown any spark offensively in the last four weeks, and the Chargers’ defense doesn’t provide the Cardinals with a great opportunity to change that. Combine that with the slow-moving pace that we are forecasting for the Chargers offense, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game.

The Play: Under 44 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 4-2 overall this season, 2-1 as the home team

• Los Angeles Chargers- 3-2 overall this season, 2-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Ravens- Over is 5-1 this season, 3-0 as the away team

• Los Angeles Chargers- Under is 4-1 this season, 2-1 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 4-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as an underdog

• Los Angeles Chargers- 3-2 ATS this season, 2-1 ATS as the away team

🤕 Browns believe Deshaun Watson suffered torn achilles vs Bengals. Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a suspected season-ending Achilles injury during Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals and was carted off the field. He was replaced by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who was later substituted by Jameis Winston after a finger injury. Despite signing a five-year, $230 million contract in 2022, Watson has struggled this season, posting a 1-5 record with five touchdowns and three interceptions, and is ranked last in key quarterback performance metrics.

🦁 Lions top Vikings to take NFC North lead. Jake Bates kicked a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds left, lifting the Detroit Lions to a 31-29 win over the previously unbeaten Minnesota Vikings in a thrilling matchup. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 116 yards, helping Jared Goff guide a late drive to set up the game-winning kick, while Goff threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns in his third straight game with a 140-plus passer rating. Despite a late fumble return touchdown by the Vikings, Detroit’s defense held strong, securing their fourth consecutive victory over Minnesota.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the only “Mr. Irrelevant” to throw a touchdown pass in an NFL regular season game?

Question #2- Julio Jones has signed with three NFL teams following his ten-year stint with the Falcons. The Philadelphia Eagles is one of those teams, but what were the other two?

Question #3- Prior to becoming the head basketball coach at the University of North Carolina, Roy Williams coached at what current Big 12 school from 1988-2003?

Anyone know what has happened on October 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 21st…

1963- NFL legend Jim Brown sets the single-season rushing record with 1,863 yards. Brown’s record would stand until the 1973 season, the year that O.J. Simpson ran for 2,003 yards. Brown would end his career with 12,312 rushing yards, which currently ranks 12th on the all-time list.

1981- The first NBA game is played at Meadowlands Arena in New Jersey. The New Jersey Nets took on the New York Knicks in the arena’s NBA debut, with the Knicks taking home a 103-99 win. The arena would serve as the home to the Nets until 2010, and was also the home arena for the New Jersey Devils and Seton Hall University until 2007.

1996- Atlanta Braves legend Andruw Jones becomes the youngest player in MLB history to homer in the World Series. Jones accomplished the feat at just 19 years and 180 days old, besting Mickey Mantle’s record of 20 years and 362 days. The homer would play a large role in Atlanta’s 12-1 victory that day, as it gave the Braves an early 1-0 series lead over the Yankees.

1. Brock Purdy

2. Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3. Kansas

NHL Model Predictions🏒