Back the Under in Ottawa

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

MLB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Seven NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all seven matchups can be found below.

St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators

Model Predicts- Senators ML, UNDER 6.5, Blues +1.5

The St. Louis Blues will continue their four-game road trip on Tuesday, taking on the Ottawa Senators at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ontario, Canada.

St. Louis enters tonight’s matchup with a 5-4 record, one that has the Blues sitting in fourth place in the Central division. Meanwhile, Ottawa sits in the basement of the Atlantic division, but only possesses a slightly worse record at 4-4.

Neither one of these teams has gotten much going in the early portion of the 2024-25 season, but our model projects the Senators to win tonight in a relatively low-scoring battle. Let’s dive into why that is.

St. Louis Blues

• Have had mixed results on current road trip

  • Beat Maple Leafs in Game 1, lost to Canadiens in Game 2

  • Own +1 goal differential in that span, but have been outshot 67-58 in those two games

• Scoring attack has been mediocre, and is set to experience some regression

  • Rank 17th in Goals For per 60 minutes (GF/60) in 5-on-5 situations (2.55). Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in same situations sits at 2.46

  • xGF/60 in 5-on-5 has fallen further to 2.25 across last two games

• Expected goalie- Jordan Binnington

  • Owns .912 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 17th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) at +1.6

Ottawa Senators

• Enter today on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Golden Knights, one loss to Avalanche

  • Have allowed 11 goals and own -3 goal differential in that stretch

• Defense has been crushed, but stats show there has been some bad luck

  • Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 sits at 3.29 (27th in NHL), but xGA/60 in 5-on-5 is 2.62

  • Last two games- 4.03 GA/6 in 5-on-5, but 2.99 xGA/60

• Expected goalie- Linus Ullmark

  • .879 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 57th in GSAx (-2.3)

What’s the Play?

Our model doesn’t show much value on either side in tonight’s matchup, but it does see some value in backing the under.

Ottawa’s defense has looked bad across the last two games, but the underlying metrics show the Senators have been the victim of some bad luck. The 1.04-goal gap between their GA/60 and xGA/60 in 5-on-5 during their losing streak is a clear indicator of that, and in that same stretch we’ve seen Ottawa outshoot its opponents 69-60, showing some bad luck offensively as well.

However, Ottawa’s offensive issues go deeper than just bad luck. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Senators are creating just 7.67 High Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5 this season, the fewest in the NHL. That lack of pressure on opposing goaltenders makes goals tough to come by, and the pending regression for the Blues’ offense puts this game in a prime spot to be low-scoring.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Bruins- 4-4-1 overall this season, 3-2-0 as the home team

• Seattle Kraken- 4-4-1 overall this season, 2-1-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Montreal Canadiens- Over is 6-3-0 this season with average total of 6.67

• New York Rangers- Under is 4-3-1 this season with average total of 6.25

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Capitals- Puck line is 5-2 this season

🤕 Connor McDavid suffers injury in loss to Blue Jackets. Connor McDavid left the game early due to a fall and will return to Edmonton for further evaluation, missing the Oilers' upcoming road games. Coach Kris Knoblauch emphasized the chance for other players to step up in McDavid’s absence, though his loss is felt deeply by the team. Despite a 3-0 start by the Blue Jackets, Mattias Ekholm prevented a shutout, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins led the forwards, reflecting the need for the Oilers to adapt without their star.

🍁 Maple Leafs hand Jets first loss of season behind big game from Tavares. The Winnipeg Jets' unbeaten streak ended with a 6-4 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, halting their pursuit of the NHL's record for consecutive wins to start a season. Despite Toronto’s dominant play and a 4-0 lead, the Jets fought back but ultimately fell short, with John Tavares sealing the game for Toronto with an empty-netter to complete his hat trick. Toronto's second line shined, and the Leafs controlled most of the game, outscoring Winnipeg 5-0 at even strength.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Baltimore Orioles selected what player from Oregon State with the No.1 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft?

Question #2- Who led the 2011 NBA playoffs in points scored, scoring 582 total?

Question #3- Former NBA player Kenneth Faried played for three teams in his career. Two of those teams were the Denver Nuggets and Brooklyn Nets, but what team was the third?

Anyone know what has happened on October 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 29th…

1969- Tom Seaver is named the National League Cy Young Award winner. Seaver won the award as a member of the New York Mets, a result of posting a 25-7 record and 2.21 ERA across 273.1 innings. He would also play for the Reds, White Sox, and Red Sox in his career, and won the Cy Young award two more times, once in 1973 and again in 1975.

2014- The San Francisco Giants beat the Kansas City Royals in Game 7 of the World Series. San Francisco won the game by a score of 3-2, giving the Giants their third World Series title in five years. Pitcher Madison Bumgarner, who pitched in Games 1, 5, and 7, was named World Series MVP.

2018- Former Golden State Warriors player Klay Thompson makes 14 three-pointers in a 149-124 win over the Chicago Bulls. The performance set a new NBA record for made three-pointers in a game by one player, a record that was previously held by Stephen Curry. Thompson’s record is still the record today, but three different players have reached 13.

1. Adley Rutschman

2. Dirk Nowitzki

3. Houston Rockets

MLB Model Predictions⚾️

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈

NBA Model Predictions🏀